Tag Archives: Economic

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 20 September – 26 September 2021

Economic
China electricity shortage: industrial production grinds to halt and traffic lights fail amid rationing

China is in the midst of a power supply crisis that has turned critical in recent days – threatening entire power grids and prompting analysts to slash economic growth forecasts for the year. In the past month, 16 out of 31 provincial jurisdictions – from industrial powerhouses in the south such as Guangdong to the rust belt in the northeast – have rolle d out electricity-rationing measures, triggering widespread alarm among much of the population and plunging the nation’s industrial sector into chaos. On Sept 23, some traffic lights in Shenyang, the capital of the Liaoning province, suddenly stopped working, resulting in severe traffic jams. The local government said during a meeting on Sept 26 that they had to ration power “to avoid the collapse of the entire grid”, according to an article in the state-run People’s Daily. Analysts have pointed to both a shortage of coal and Beijing’s push to meet emission-reduction targets, and they warn that further disruptions risk aggravating inflation while pummeling production. Meanwhile, some analysts are suggesting that the power rationing measures could help reduce demand for upstream raw materials that have been in short supply in China. Click here to read

U.S. grants licenses for more aid flow to Afghanistan despite sanctions

The United States on Sept 24 further paved the way for aid to flow to Afghanistan despite U.S. sanctions on the Taliban, who seized control of the country last month, issuing general licenses amid concern that Washington’s punitive measures could compound an unfolding humanitarian crisis. The U.S. Treasury Department said it issued two general licenses, one allowing the U.S. government, NGOs and certain international organizations, including the United Nations, to engage in transactions with the Taliban or Haqqani Network – both under sanctions – that are necessary to provide humanitarian assistance. The second license authorizes certain transactions related to the export and re-export of food, medicine and other items. “Treasury is committed to facilitating the flow of humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan and other activities that support their basic human needs,” Andrea Gacki, director of the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said in the statement. She added that Washington will continue to work with financial institutions, NGOs and international organizations to ease the flow of agricultural goods, medicine and other resources while upholding sanctions on the Taliban, Haqqani Network and others. Click here to read

China’s rare-earth giants forming ‘super group’ in merger for high-quality devt, deal with price abnormalities

China’s rare-earth giants are mulling a restructuring, and a super group in the medium-heavy rare-earth sector is expected to be born soon. Analysts said the move will help enhance market concentration to better guide industry development and contribute to improving competitive edge. China Minerals Rare Earth Co Ltd said on Sept 23 that its parent China Minerals Corp, Aluminum Corp of China and the government of Ganzhou, East China’s Jiangxi Province, are planning a strategic restructuring of rare earth assets. “The relevant plan has not yet been finalized, and needs approval from relevant authorities,” said a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The two groups are among the “Big Six” state-owned enterprises that dominate the industry in China, while Ganzhou is a major rare-earth resource hub where another Big Six company South China Rare Earth Group Co is based. The three parties own mining output quota for medium and heavy rare earth metals of 9,870 tons in total, accounting for 85.9 percent of the first batch of quotas set for 2021. This means that their restructuring will establish a super group focused on medium-heavy rare-earth products, according to experts. Click here to read

China blasts Taiwan’s bid to join CPTPP trade pact

China on Sept 23 said it “strongly opposes” Taiwan’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a day after Taipei applied for membership in the 11-country trade bloc. “There is only one China in this world, and Taiwan cannot be separated from China. We strongly oppose Taiwan’s participation in any official agreement or organization. China’s stance on this is very clear,” Zhao Lijian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters. Taiwan submitted its application to join the Japan-led trade bloc on Sept 22, less than a week after China announced its own surprise bid for membership. Earlier on Sept 23, the island’s top trade representative warned that if China were to be admitted to the grouping first, Beijing would attempt to block Taiwan from joining. “China has been obstructing Taiwan’s international presence. If China is admitted into CPTPP ahead of us, it will definitely risk Taiwan’s entry to the trade bloc”, top Taiwan trade negotiator John Deng said. “Taiwan’s application is mainly for our own interests, our companies’ interests and for our own long-term economic planning purposes, and it has nothing to do with other countries’ goals [or with] China’s comments on our application,” Deng said. Click here to read

EU split on Taiwan question as it fears fraying China ties

A China backlash appears to be taking shape in the European Union, where this month the foreign affairs committee of parliament issued a report calling on the 27-nation bloc to begin preparing a bilateral investment agreement (BIA) with Taiwan. The move came after the recent European Parliament session passed an amendment that calls for changing a trade office’s name on the island to the European Union Office in Taiwan, a step that indicates the EU feels the need to “move away from [its] solely economic” relationship with Taiwan, according to the BIA report’s rapporteur. Charlie Weimers, a Swedish politician and member of the European Parliament and the report’s rapporteur, said that by the end of this year preparations have to be made for an impact assessment, public consultations and a scoping exercise so the EU and Taiwan can start negotiations and “deepen our economic ties.” In 2020, the EU was Taiwan’s largest foreign investor, accounting for 38.8% of the island’s total. Yet it accounted for only 2% of Taiwan’s foreign direct investment. The EU is Taiwan’s 5th largest trading partner. The EU first broached the idea of a BIA with Taiwan back in 2015 but later dropped the plan. Click here to read

Sri Lanka’s vital EU trade privileges hang in the balance

When a special five-member European Union delegation arrives in Colombo on Sept 27, its review of a vital trade concession could lead to substantial export losses for Sri Lanka, which has already suffered a steep drop in foreign reserves. The European delegation will confer with stakeholders to learn more about something else many believe to again be in decline in the South Asian island nation: human rights. “They will meet with all stakeholders to obtain information, and verify the commitment made by the government in relation to matters pertaining to human rights, international labor conventions and the environment,” Denis Chaibi, the EU ambassador to Sri Lanka, told Nikkei Asia. The delegation will scrutinize Sri Lanka’s adherence to its commitments on human rights, labor laws and environmental protection, as well as enforcement of the Prevention of Terrorism Act. The PTA legislation to counter terrorism and separatism was enacted in 1979 but remains in force and is regarded by many as a political weapon to stifle dissent and debate. The investigation will determine whether the European trading bloc continues to provide a Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) concession on imports that has been highly favorable to Sri Lanka. Click here to read

Lebanon’s inflation rate is worse than Zimbabwe’s and Venezuela’s

Lebanon’s annual rate of inflation has risen to the highest of all countries tracked by Bloomberg, surpassing Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as the financial meltdown in the Middle East nation worsens. The consumer price index rose 137.8% from a year earlier in August, compared with 123.4% in July, according to the Lebanon Central Administration of Statistics. Consumer prices rose 10.25% from a month earlier while food prices rose 20.82%. Lebanon’s inflation has skyrocketed in the past two years as the country’s financial and economic crisis spirals out of control, with politicians doing very little to mitigate its impact. The currency has lost nearly 90% of its value and plunged three quarters of residents into poverty. Authorities have in recent months started reducing subsidies, as most items are now priced at the black-market exchange rate. The central bank is running out of cash and has repeatedly warned the government about continuing subsidies. After nearly 13 months of paralysis, billionaire and former premier Najib Mikati formed a new government that seeks to resume stalled bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund and creditors to restructure the debt. Lebanon defaulted on $30 billion of Eurobonds last year. Click here to read

Chinese official calls for ‘high-level’ security reassurance for CPEC

A senior Chinese official called for “high-level” security guarantees for further high-quality development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), during a bilateral meeting on the development of the major project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the 10th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was held via video link on Sept 23, Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, said that high-quality operation under high-level security guarantees are needed to turn the corridor into a demonstration project for the high-quality development of the BRI. The meeting, which was delayed partly by the Dasu terror attack, conveyed some very important information about the CPEC’s future development pattern, including the new practical move on joint cooperation in information technology, said Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the Research Center for China-South Asia Cooperation at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. As part of the effort to help Pakistan tackle its domestic security situation, it may include sectors such as database development, Liu told the Global Times on Thursday. “If the CPEC is to advance smoothly, it is necessary to ensure that the domestic security situation in Pakistan is stable,” said Liu. Click here to read

UAE, India look to double trade to at least $100B over five years

The United Arab Emirates and India are seeking to more than double non-oil trade to at least $100 billion over five years as the Gulf Arab state works to deepen ties with fast-growing economies beyond the Middle East. The two governments are set to start talks on an economic pact aimed at boosting business, investment and jobs, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi said on a visit to New Delhi for talks with Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. “Both sides have drawn up a very aggressive and ambitious time-frame and aim to conclude negotiations by December 2021,” Goyal said at a press conference on Sept 22. “We hope to sign formal agreements in early 2022.” The UAE is trying to burnish its credentials as a global hub for business and finance in the face of growing regional competition from Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, the government said it plans to work on comprehensive economic agreements with countries showing high potential for growth, mainly in Asia and Africa. Last week, it said it plans to invest up to $14 billion in Britain. India is seeking better trade links to revive its economy after a deadly second wave of the pandemic this year. Click here to read

Strategic
Joint Statement from Quad Leaders: September 24, 2021

We, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, convened today in person as “the Quad” for the first time. On this historic occasion we recommit to our partnership, and to a region that is a bedrock of our shared security and prosperity—a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is also inclusive and resilient. Just six months have passed since our last meeting. Since March, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused continued global suffering; the climate crisis has accelerated; and regional security has become ever-more complex, testing all of our countries individually and together. Our cooperation, however, remains unflinching. The occasion of the Quad summit is an opportunity to refocus ourselves and the world on the Indo-Pacific and on our vision for what we hope to achieve. Together, we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states. We commit to work together and with a range of partners. Click here to read

Kissinger’s ‘secret’ China trip recalled as Wall Street veteran meets key Chinese leaders, visits Xinjiang

As official US-China exchanges slowed amid rising tensions, a Wall Street veteran visited Beijing for talks with a top leader – acting as a powerful backchannel for the two nations, the Post has learned. John Thornton, executive chairman of Barrick Gold Corp and a former Goldman Sachs president, met Chinese Vice-Premier Han Zheng in Beijing in late August, according to a person familiar with the details of the meeting. The key issues discussed included climate change, Xinjiang and conditions for resuming bilateral talks. Thornton, also co-chair of the China-US Financial Roundtable, acted as an unofficial channel for US-China exchanges during his six-week trip, which included a three-week stay in Shanghai before his meetings with senior Chinese officials in the capital in late August. This was followed by a week-long trip to Xinjiang, the far-western region where the US accuses China of having committed genocide of the ethnic minority Uygur population. Thornton was given unprecedented access at a time when China is still largely closed to most foreigners since the Covid-19 pandemic first broke out. “Thornton’s trip was similar in nature to [Henry] Kissinger’s secret trip to China [in 1971],” said the person familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity. Click here to read

Russia’s Lavrov says Taliban recognition ‘not on the table’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sept 25 that international recognition of the Taliban was not currently under consideration. Lavrov was speaking on the sidelines of the annual gathering of world leaders in New York for the U.N. General Assembly. His comments come after the Taliban nominated a U.N. envoy, setting up a showdown over Afghanistan’s seat at the world body. “The question of international recognition of the Taliban at the present juncture is not on the table,” Lavrov told a news conference. Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Sept 26 nominated the Islamist group’s Doha-based spokesman Suhail Shaheen as Afghanistan’s U.N. ambassador. The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan last month. Ghulam Isaczai, the current U.N. ambassador who represents the Afghan government ousted by the Taliban, has also asked to renew his U.N. accreditation. Russia is a member of a nine-member U.N credentials committee – along with China and the United States – which will deal with the competing claims on Afghanistan’s U.N. seat later this year. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the Taliban’s desire for international recognition is the only leverage other countries have to press for inclusive government and respect for rights, particularly for women, in Afghanistan. Click here to read

No crime and no punishment as Meng Wanzhou admits wrongdoing without guilt

US prosecutors depict the deal that allowed Meng Wanzhou to leave Canada and fly home to China as a victory – but if so, it is an odd one after so much thwarted effort to secure her for trial. Ultimately, the Huawei Technologies Co executive has been convicted of no crime, will serve no sentence and pay no penalty. Instead, Meng admits wrongdoing without admitting guilt. “In entering into the deferred prosecution agreement, Meng has taken responsibility for her principal role in perpetrating a scheme to defraud a global financial institution,” said acting US attorney Nicole Boeckmann in a press release. A deferred prosecution agreement typically includes both an admission of wrongdoing, and a requirement for some sort of cooperation from the accused, in return for the dropping of charges at a future date. Meng’s deal includes admissions that she lied to HSBC, but that is as far as her obligations go – there is no cooperation requirement. The deal is a scant five pages long. The main requirement is that Meng agree to a statement of facts (a further four pages long) that describes a meeting she held in Hong Kong in 2013 with an executive for “Financial Institution 1”, identified as HSBC in Meng’s now-dropped Canadian extradition case. Click here to read

‘Finally, I am home’: Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou lands in China to hero’s welcome

Huawei Technologies’ executive Meng Wanzhou landed in China on Sept 25 evening, after nearly three years under house arrest in Canada, to a hero’s welcome cheered by supporters in a homecoming state media portrayed as a sign of a strong country and a diplomatic coup for Beijing. State broadcaster CCTV showed a teary-eyed Meng, wearing a red wraparound dress, receiving a bouquet of roses and being greeted by an assembled crowd waving mini national flags on the tarmac of the international airport of Shenzhen, Huawei’s base, after her flight landed at 9.50pm. Meng waved to the 100-strong crowd and acknowledged the shouts of “Welcome home”. She then gave a brief speech, addressing Zhang Xin, deputy provincial governor of Guangdong, and Shenzhen mayor Qin Weizhong, and beginning by saying: “Finally, I am home.” She mentioned President Xi Jinping twice in her speech on the airport tarmac, referring to him as Chairman Xi. “Chairman Xi cares about the safety of every Chinese citizen, and he also has my situation in his heart, I am deeply touched by this,” she said. The reception for 49-year-old Meng, daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, was unusually grand even by Chinese standards. Red carpets were rolled out on the tarmac, and state television, including CCTV, provided live coverage for hours. Click here to read

From relentless war to relentless diplomacy, Biden declares new chapter

After two decades of war in Afghanistan, the U.S. is ready for a new chapter — one that will focus on intensive diplomacy and only turn to force as a last resort, President Joe Biden said at his debut address to the United Nations Sept 21. In line with his Aug. 16 speech after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the president expressed his distaste for military arm-twisting to achieve American foreign policy goals, further narrowing down the conditions of the use of force to missions that are clear, achievable and have the “informed consent of the American people.” In his 33-minute speech, the president did not mention China by name once, as opposed to his predecessor Donald Trump who mentioned “China” or “Chinese” 12 times in 2020 and 14 times in 2019. Instead, the U.S. president made clear he does not want a new cold war with Beijing. “All of the major powers of the world have a duty, in my view, to carefully manage their relationships so we do not tip from responsible competition to conflict,” Biden said. ” We’ll stand up for our allies and our friends and oppose attempts by stronger countries to dominate weaker ones, whether through changes to territory by force, economic coercion, tactical exploitation, or disinformation.” But the U.S. is “not seeking a new cold war or a world divided into rigid blocs,” he emphasized. Click here to read

Taiwan axes symbols of authoritarian past in push to rebrand

Taiwan is undertaking a sweeping drive to remove all symbols of its authoritarian past in a bid to create a new global brand for the island. The latest move is a plan to pull down a towering bronze statue of Chiang Kai-shek — the generalissimo who ruled the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name) with an iron fist from 1949 to his death in 1975 — from an iconic central Taipei memorial hall dedicated to the former dictator. The step comes on the recommendation of the Transitional Justice Commission, which addresses crimes committed during the era of martial law, or “White Terror.” Since taking power in 2016, President Tsai Ing-wen and her ruling Democratic Progressive Party have ramped up efforts to distance themselves from the past. With Taiwan being squeezed out of formal diplomatic space by an assertive China, the DPP has set out to rebrand Taiwan’s international identity. Some moves may seem superficial, such as changing the name on its passport and Western consulates to emphasize the colloquial name of Taiwan and minimizing references to the ROC — the baggage-laden name of China before Chiang’s nationalist Kuomintang was forced to flee to the island from Mao Zedong’s Communists in 1949. Click here to read

China’s Xi warns of ‘grim’ Taiwan situation in letter to opposition

The situation in the Taiwan Strait is “complex and grim”, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote in a congratulatory letter on Sept 26 to the newly elected leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, who has pledged to renew talks with Beijing. Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) elected as their leader on Sept 25 former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu, who said he would rekindle stalled high-level contacts with China’s ruling Communist Party. In Xi’s letter, a copy of which was released by the KMT, he said both parties had had “good interactions” based on their joint opposition to Taiwan independence. “At present, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is complex and grim. All the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation must work together with one heart and go forward together,” wrote Xi, who is also head of the Communist Party. He expressed hope that both parties could cooperate on “seeking peace in the Taiwan Strait, seeking national reunification and seeking national revitalisation”. Chu, who badly lost the 2016 presidential election to current President Tsai Ing-wen, responded to Xi that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were “all the children of the Yellow Emperor” – in other words, all Han Chinese. Chu blamed Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for tensions with Beijing after pursuing anti-China policies. Chu had met Xi in China in 2015. Click here to read

Attacks on Myanmar military spike following call for revolt

Clashes between the Myanmar military and a growing resistance movement called the People’s Defense Force have intensified following calls for open uprisings by the parallel government formed by ousted politicians and activists. The PDF consists of militias that have been formed throughout Myanmar since May by citizens opposing military rule. The National Unity Government, launched by Myanmar’s democratically elected leaders pushed out by the military in February, has limited direct control over these groups, which each make their own military decisions. About 120 to 300 militias under the PDF now exist across Myanmar, with a total estimated membership of 20,000 to 30,000 fighters, according to experts who have closely monitored the escalating attacks. The Chinland Defense Force, a leading resistance group within the PDF, and a local ethnic armed organization clashed with the military in Chin state on Sept 25, local news outlet Myanmar Now reported. No major skirmishes have broken out in Yangon. But six explosions occurred in Hlaingthaya township in Yangon where many garment factories locate on Sept. 14. Trained militants are believed to be waiting in the city for the right time to strike. Click here to read

Erdogan: Turkey intends to buy 2nd batch of Russian S-400s

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey still intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, a move that could deepen a rift with NATO ally Washington and trigger fresh U.S. sanctions. Washington says the S-400s pose a threat to its F-35 fighter jets and to NATO’s broader defense systems. Turkey says it was unable to procure air defense systems from any NATO ally on satisfactory terms. “In the future, nobody will be able to interfere in terms of what kind of defense systems we acquire, from which country at what level,” Erdogan said in an interview aired on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan at CBS News on Sept 26. “Nobody can interfere with that. We are the only ones to make such decisions.” The United States imposed sanctions on Turkey’s Defense Industry Directorate, its chief Ismail Demir and three other employees in December following the country’s acquisition of a first batch of S-400s. Talks continued between Russia and Turkey about the delivery of a second batch, which Washington has repeatedly said would almost certainly trigger new sanctions. Erdogan will visit Russia next week to meet President Vladimir Putin to discuss issues including the violence in northwestern Syria. Click here to read

Iran’s nuclear program has crossed ‘all red lines,’ PM Bennett tells UNGA while hinting at Israel taking action

The Iranian nuclear program has reached a “watershed” moment and Israel’s tolerance on the matter is running out, PM Naftali Bennett has said, calling on the international community to recognize the gravity of the situation. Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Sept 26, Bennett said that Iran had made “a major leap forward” in recent years and that its “weapon program is at a critical point.” Bennett argued that Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, many times greater than permitted under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which put restraints on Tehran’s nuclear development. It’s “one step short of weapons-grade material – and they’re getting away with it,” he added. The Israeli leader contended that Iran’s nuclear program had now hit a “watershed moment” and words would not be enough to stop its centrifuges. But Bennett said that while the rest of the world either considered Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons inevitable, or they’re just tired of hearing about it, Israel didn’t have that privilege and its tolerance was running out. “Iran is much weaker, much more vulnerable than it seems,” he noted, adding that Israel would not tire on the matter and would not allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons. Click here to read

U.S. to Iran: Grant inspectors access to workshop or face action at IAEA

Iran must stop denying the U.N. nuclear watchdog access to a workshop making centrifuge parts as agreed two weeks ago or face diplomatic retaliation at the agency’s Board of Governors within days, the United States said on Sept 27. The workshop at the TESA Karaj complex makes components for centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, and was hit by apparent sabotage in June in which one of four International Atomic Energy Agency cameras there was destroyed. Iran removed them and the destroyed camera’s footage is missing. TESA Karaj was one of several sites to which Iran agreed to grant IAEA inspectors access to service IAEA monitoring equipment and replace memory cards just as they were due to fill up with data such as camera footage. The Sept. 12 accord helped avoid a diplomatic escalation between Iran and the West. “We are deeply troubled by Iran’s refusal to provide the IAEA with the needed access to service its monitoring equipment, as was agreed in the September 12 Joint Statement between the IAEA and Iran,” a U.S. statement to the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Sept 27 said. Click here to read

Meet Olaf Scholz, the German Best Placed to Succeed Angela Merkel

A politician who built his popularity on his response to Covid-19 and styled himself as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s true heir is now best placed to succeed her as leader of Europe’s largest economy after scoring a narrow win in Sept 26’s election. Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party won a small majority over Ms. Merkel’s conservatives. But with just a quarter of the votes, he is also the first leading politician in the country’s postwar history to need support for three parties to build a stable majority in parliament. Adding to the complexity of the three-way negotiations, Ms. Merkel’s conservatives have said they, too, would court Mr. Scholz’s prospective partners—the pro-market Free Democrats and the Greens—with a view to forming a government. Under unwritten rules of German politics, the election winner has the first shot at trying to form a coalition but has no guarantee of becoming chancellor if the effort fails. Mr. Scholz said a government under his leadership would serve the interests of workers and focus on fighting man-made climate change. Signaling continuity in foreign policy, he said that he would work for a more united European Union and, like Ms. Merkel, refrain from aligning too closely with the U.S. Click here to read

Mali approached Russian military company for help: Lavrov

Mali has asked Russian private companies to boost security in the conflict-torn country, Moscow confirmed as the Malian leader accused France of abandoning Bamako by preparing a large troop drawdown. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Sept 25 private Russian military contractors have a “legitimate” right to be in Mali because they were invited by the country’s transitional government – but he insisted that the Russian government was not involved. Meanwhile, in his address to the UN General Assembly, Mali’s Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga accused France of abandoning his country with its “unilateral” decision to withdraw troops. With France preparing to reduce its military presence in the Sahel region, the Malian government estimated that “its own capacities would be insufficient in the absence of external support” and initiated the discussions, Lavrov told reporters on the sidelines of the UNGA. “This is an activity which has been carried out on a legitimate basis,” he said. “We have nothing to do with that.” Lavrov’s comments came after European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that the bloc’s ties with Mali could be seriously affected if it allows Russian private military contractors from the controversial Wagner Group to operate in the country. Click here to read

Sudan transitional government says coup attempt has failed

Sudanese authorities have reported a failed attempt to overthrow the country’s transitional government, blaming “military officers and civilians” from the former government of deposed President Omar al-Bashir. Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok addressed the attempted coup, which took place early on Sept 21, as “an extension of previous attempts” to overthrow the transitional government created after al-Bashir was removed from power in 2019 by the military follow months of mass protests against his rule. “They tried to take advantage of the situation in different towns by closing the ports and the roads. They took advantage of the national crisis and tried to stop us from moving forward during this transitional period,” Hamdok said. Earlier on Sept 21, Information Minister Hamza Baloul said military officers and civilians linked to al-Bashir had attempted a coup but were swiftly brought under control. “We brought under control a coup attempt by military officers early Sept 21,” Baloul said. Authorities “have arrested leaders of the failed plot, which involved military officers and civilians belonging to the defunct regime”, he added. The military said “most” of those involved in the coup attempt had been arrested, including 11 officers. Click here to read

Medical
Pfizer begins study of oral drug for prevention of COVID-19

Pfizer said on Sep 27 it has started a mid-to-late-stage study testing its investigational oral antiviral drug for the prevention of COVID-19 infection among those who have been exposed to the virus. The company and its rivals, including US-based Merck & Co and Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG, have been racing to develop the first antiviral pill for COVID-19. Pfizer said it would study the drug, PF-07321332, in up to 2,660 healthy adult participants aged 18 and older who live in the same household as an individual with a confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 infection. The trial would test PF-07321332 with a low dose of ritonavir, an older medication widely used in combination treatments for HIV infection. Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said earlier this month they had begun enrolling patients in a late-stage trial of their experimental drug molnupiravir for prevention of COVID-19 infection. Pfizer had also said earlier this month it started a mid-to-late-stage trial of PF-07321332 for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalised, symptomatic adult patients. Click here to read

US authorizes Pfizer booster for the elderly and high-risk

The US on Sept 22 authorized the use of boosters of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for people aged over 65, as well as adults at high risk of severe disease and those in high-exposure jobs. The announcement means a significant part of the population, amounting to tens of millions of Americans, are now eligible for a third shot six months after their second. “Today’s action demonstrates that science and the currently available data continue to guide the FDA’s decision-making for COVID-19 vaccines during this pandemic,” said Janet Woodcock, acting head of the Food and Drug Administration, in a statement. The decision was expected and came after an independent expert panel convened by the regulatory agency last week voted in favor of recommending the move. The panel, however, rejected an initial plan by the White House to fully approve Pfizer boosters to everyone aged 16 and over, in what amounted to a rare rebuke of President Joe Biden’s administration. The group of vaccinologists, infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists concluded that the benefit-risk balance differed for younger people, especially young males who are more susceptible to myocarditis. Click here to read

New York hospitals face staff shortages as COVID-19 vaccine mandate kicks in

New York hospitals were preparing to fire thousands of healthcare workers for not complying with a COVID-19 vaccine mandate taking effect on Sep 27, with some in the upstate region curtailing services to cope with staff shortages. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio told a news conference that hospitals in the city were not seeing a major impact from the mandate, but that he was worried about other areas of the state where vaccination rates are lower. Catholic Health, one of the largest healthcare providers in Western New York, had said it would postpone some elective surgeries on Sept 27 as it works to boost its vaccination rate, which reached 90 per cent of workers as of Sept 26 afternoon. New York’s state health department issued an order last month mandating that all healthcare workers receive at least their first COVID-19 shot by Sep 27, triggering a rush by hospitals to get their employees inoculated. Of the 43,000 employees at the New York City’s 11 public hospitals, about 5,000 were not vaccinated, Dr. Mitchell Katz, head of NYC Health + Hospitals, said at the news conference. Click here to read

Japan on track to see state of emergency lifted on schedule

The government plans to lift the COVID-19 state of emergency for all 19 prefectures that will end on Sept. 30 as scheduled, sources said. It wants to avoid issuing pre-emergency measures for those prefectures once the emergency ends since the infection situation in Japan has been recently improving. “I think that we can lift the state of emergency at the end of September if the current infection situation continues (to trend downward),” health minister Norihisa Tamura said during a Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK) TV debate program on Sept. 26. The government will effectively decide on its plan at a Sept. 27 meeting to be attended by ministers responsible for responding to the health crisis. If the government’s expert panel on countermeasures against COVID-19 discusses and approves the plan on Sept. 28, the government will make its official decision at the task force meeting. It will make the final call after hearing opinions from local governments and experts, with an eye to lifting pre-emergency measures for all eight prefectures and the state of emergency for all 19 prefectures. As of Sept. 23, the hospital bed occupancy rate for COVID-19 patients in those 19 prefectures have dropped below 50 percent, the criteria for lifting the state of emergency. Click here to read

COVID-19 vaccine boosters could mean billions for drugmakers

Billions more in profits are at stake for some vaccine makers as the U.S. moves toward dispensing COVID-19 booster shots to shore up Americans’ protection against the virus. How much the manufacturers stand to gain depends on how big the rollout proves to be. U.S. health officials late on Sept 23 endorsed booster shots of the Pfizer vaccine for all Americans 65 and older — along with tens of millions of younger people who are at higher risk from the coronavirus because of health conditions or their jobs. Officials described the move as a first step. Boosters will likely be offered even more broadly in the coming weeks or months, including boosters of vaccines made by Moderna and Johnson & Johnson. That, plus continued growth in initial vaccinations, could mean a huge gain in sales and profits for Pfizer and Moderna in particular. Wall Street is taking notice. The average forecast among analysts for Moderna’s 2022 revenue has jumped 35% since President Joe Biden laid out his booster plan in mid-August. Most of the vaccinations so far in the U.S. have come from Pfizer, which developed its shot with Germany’s BioNTech, and Moderna. They have inoculated about 99 million and 68 million people, respectively. Johnson & Johnson is third with about 14 million people. Click here to read

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 06 September – 12 September 2021

Economic
Global Economic Warfare Intensifies as Military Conflict Recedes

The last American soldier had barely left Afghanistan when President Biden pledged that pressure on the Taliban would continue through other means, in particular what he described as economic tools. He has since maintained sanctions on the Taliban, though the action imperils Afghanistan’s aid-dependent economy. It is the latest step in the U.S.’s and the world’s shifting preference from military to economic warfare. Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. on average sanctioned more than 1,000 people or entities a year, often by barring their access to the U.S. financial system. That was more than double the average of the prior 16 years, according to the law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher. Though Mr. Biden has promised to review the use of sanctions, he is now on track to match Mr. Trump’s pace. He has hit 13 different countries for human rights violations, election interference, narcotics trafficking and more, according to Castellum.AI, which uses technology to track global sanctions activity. Sanctions owe their popularity today not just to the aversion to military conflict, especially among the nuclear-armed, but to globalization, which increases potential pressure points, and the rise of China, whose challenge to the U.S. is primarily economic, not military.
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China’s factory and consumer prices continue to diverge, ramping up concern of an economic slowdown

China is unlikely to make changes to its monetary policy even as factory-gate prices continue to rise and consumer inflation remains low, further exacerbating concerns of an economic slowdown, analysts say. The producer price index (PPI), which reflects the prices that factories charge wholesalers for their products, rose by 9.5 per cent in August from a year earlier, up slightly from 9 per cent in July, making it the third highest reading since records began, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sept 09. Coal prices hit new highs this week adding pressure to Chinese firms already struggling with other high raw material costs. The widening gap between factory gate inflation and consumer inflation is driving concern because it means manufacturers are suffering from high raw material prices – forcing some to begin curbing production – while soft CPI growth means producer costs are not being passed onto consumers, whose spending is weak and still crimped by the pandemic.
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Beijing lobbies Canberra for help to join CPTPP regional trade pact despite spat

China is lobbying the Australian government for its support to join a multilateral regional trade pact – despite the two nations being in a worsening geopolitical dispute that’s spilled over into economic reprisals. “China’s accession to the CPTPP would yield large economic benefits,” Beijing’s embassy in Canberra wrote in a submission to an Australian parliamentary inquiry into broadening the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). “China is committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind and stands ready to work together with all the other parties to promote globalisation and regional economic integration.” China has this year reached out to Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and possibly other nations for technical talks on details of the CPTPP, which was formed in 2018 despite the withdrawal of the United States under then-president Donald Trump, who described it as a “potential disaster.” The pact was originally conceived by his predecessor Barack Obama as an economic bloc to balance Beijing’s growing power.
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Beijing to break up Ant’s Alipay and force creation of separate loans app

Beijing wants to break up Alipay, the 1bn-plus-user superapp owned by Jack Ma’s Ant Group and create a separate app for the company’s highly profitable loans business, in the most visible restructuring yet of the fintech giant. Chinese regulators have already ordered Ant to separate the back end of its two lending businesses, Huabei, which is similar to a traditional credit card, and Jiebei, which makes small unsecured loans, from the rest of its financial offerings and bring in outside shareholders. Now officials want the two businesses to be split into an independent app as well. The plan would also require Ant to turn over the user data that underpins its lending decisions to a new credit scoring joint venture which would be partly state-owned, according to two people familiar with the process. “The government believes big tech’s monopoly power comes from their control of data,” said one person close to financial regulators in Beijing. “It wants to end that.”
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Discontent Simmers Over How to Police EU Privacy Rules

The European Union’s recent $270 million fine against WhatsApp was held up for months by disagreements among national authorities, ratcheting up tensions over how to enforce the bloc’s privacy rules. The varied approaches to policing the EU’s strict General Data Protection Regulation are fueling calls to redesign how national authorities from the 27 EU countries can intervene in each other’s cases and to explore creating a broader EU-wide regulatory system. WhatsApp, owned by Facebook Inc., was fined for failing to tell EU residents enough about what it does with their data, including sharing their information with other Facebook units. The fine was made public in early September by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission, which had jurisdiction over the case because WhatsApp’s and Facebook’s European headquarters is in Ireland. Eight other regulators said the Irish authority’s proposed fine of up to 50 million euros, equivalent to roughly $59 million, was too low and disagreed with the Irish regulator’s analysis of the company’s data practices. The regulators used a GDPR resolution process to settle their disagreements, and the Irish authority said it followed the other regulators’ recommendations, including raising the fine. But regulators and privacy experts say the process of sharing enforcement among national authorities has led to bottlenecks.
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Political uncertainty clouds China Inc.’s Afghanistan ambitions

Foreign companies active in Afghanistan face prolonged uncertainty as the new Taliban caretaker government grapples with a financial crisis and international reluctance to offer help. Since the Taliban seized power last month, at least 10 publicly listed companies in China have expressed hope that they will be able to participate in mining or infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, but they linked doing business to political and diplomatic developments. Businesses that had traded with Afghanistan or worked in the country under the previous U.S.-backed government are racing to assess the changing financial and security situations, or to build ties with Taliban officials. The Beijing-based Metallurgical Corporation of China, which has a license to the Aynak Copper Mine 40 km southeast of Kabul, said it remained committed to the long-stalled development. MMC was given a 30-year contract to develop the world’s second-largest copper deposit in 2008 but has suffered repeated delays.
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China promises to raise imports from ASEAN ahead of new rail link

Chinese officials have vowed to increase imports from Southeast Asian countries ahead of the opening of a new rail link to the bloc. Addressing the 18th China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in the southern Chinese city of Nanning, Vice President Wang Qishan said that both partners need to foster new development drivers to accelerate economic recovery. “We will treat ASEAN as a priority in China’s neighborhood diplomacy,” Wang told the gathering of diplomats, businesspersons and officials who tuned in via video link. “China will import more distinctive products from ASEAN, expand mutual investment, deepen the industrial supply chain and promote Lancang-Mekong cooperation,” he said, referring to an economic corridor with Indochina. Chinese trade with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew 38% to $410.7 billion in the first six month of 2021 from a year before, with exports to the bloc rising to $225.8 billion and imports reaching $184.9 billion. Lao Prime Minister Phankham Viphavanh said on Sept 10 that the country will open its first rail link with China on Dec 02. To the south, the line is to later extend across the Mekong from Vientiane to Thailand, reaching through to Bangkok. China has two rail links with Vietnam.
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Bangladesh tightens grip on Facebook, Twitter and other platforms

The Bangladeshi government is turning its focus to Facebook, Twitter and other global social media platforms as it broadens efforts to quell critical reports. The latest moves to keep an eye on public statements come three years after the government came down hard on TV stations and publications to stymie critical reporting. The government says its intentions are to “make social media platforms accountable,” Zunaid Ahmed Palak, junior minister for Information and Communication Technology Division, told Nikkei Asia. It is planning a law that would require social media platforms to store domestically generated user data on servers within the country. The law would also force the tech companies to provide information about social media accounts that the government deems to be spreading propaganda or false information. It is the next salvo in a series of endeavors to rein in Big Tech. In 2019, Dhaka introduced the amended Value Added Tax and Supplementary Duty Act, compelling international technology companies to make VAT payments. The value-added tax is a 15% charge on all sales proceeds.
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Power industry to discuss need of nuclear power with next Japan prime minister

Japan needs nuclear power, the head of an electricity sector federation said on Sept 10, adding that the industry would have a serious debate on energy policy with whoever becomes the next prime minister. Japan’s popular coronavirus vaccination minister, Taro Kono, previously known as a strong critic of nuclear energy, on Sept 10 announced his candidacy to lead the ruling party and, by extension, become the next prime minister. “We believe Japan needs nuclear power on the basis of current science and technology,” Kazuhiro Ikebe, chairman of the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, told reporters. “It is no use for us to be wary,” Ikebe said when asked if the industry was cautious about Kono becoming prime minister. “We will have a thorough and serious discussion with him and try to make him understand our stance,” Ikebe said, referring to what would happen if Kono were to become leader. Kono sounded more cautious on his stance on nuclear power at a Sept 10 news conference, declining to be labelled “anti-nuclear.” He said nuclear power plants dormant since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, that are deemed safe, could be restarted to help achieve a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
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Lebanon’s Mikati faces tricky path to safe economic ground

Lebanon’s new government has vowed to tackle one of the worst economic meltdowns in history. The path it must take includes reforms mapped out by donor states and institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund which have repeatedly said they will unlock funds once they see change. In exchange, Lebanon stands to gain billions of dollars of assistance. The alternative is to sink deeper into a depression that marks the biggest threat to Lebanon’s stability since its 1975-90 civil war. Successive governments have failed to implement changes due to Lebanon’s sectarian political system, so what kinds of reforms must its new Prime Minister Najib Mikati carry out and can he succeed where others have not? “IMF talks won’t be a walk in the park,” a former Lebanese negotiator in the IMF talks said. “It will be very difficult to meet the pre-conditions.” Many of the reforms concern the financial and banking system, the epicentre of the meltdown that took hold in late 2019, largely paralysing Lebanon’s banks.
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Strategic
Beijing warns Washington not to allow Taiwan to rename de facto embassy

Beijing has protested about the possibility of Washington allowing Taipei’s US office to be renamed and warned the United States not to challenge the one-China principle. Washington is considering a request from Taipei to change the name of its mission in the US capital from Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (Tecro) to Taiwan Representative Office, the Financial Times reported, citing multiple people briefed on internal US discussions. A final decision had not been made and would require President Joe Biden to sign an executive order, according to Sep 11’s report. Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday held their second telephone call of the former’s presidency, during which Biden said, “the US has never intended to change the one-China policy”, according to Beijing’s statement. A statement by the US government made no mention of the issue. Beijing views self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province, to be brought into its fold by force if necessary. Observers said Beijing would view a name change as breaking the one-China principle and fear a domino effect in other countries.
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Climate crisis: China’s all-or-nothing stand on talks leaves John Kerry cornered

Tackling the climate crisis is a “core national security priority” for US President Joe Biden. But saving a dangerously warming world may not always be compatible with his other highest priorities, such as confronting China. Look no further than his climate envoy John Kerry’s China visit last week. On the surface, Kerry was accorded the rare honour of a series of virtual meetings with Chinese leaders, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice-Premier Han Zheng, aside from talks with climate counterpart Xie Zhenhua. But the former US secretary of state in fact hit a stone wall when the Chinese hosts basically rolled their eyes at his suggestion that both sides rise above politics and treat climate cooperation as a “stand-alone issue”. Foreign Minister Wang firmly rejected that proposal, telling Kerry that climate cooperation could not be divorced from overall bilateral ties and the US first must “cease containing and suppressing China all over the world”. “The US side wants the climate change cooperation to be an ‘oasis’ of China-US relations. However, if the oasis is all surrounded by deserts, then sooner or later, the ‘oasis’ will be desertified,” Wang said.
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Turkey, Iran and Pakistan raise entry bars for Afghan refugees

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has triggered tough measures from countries in the region and beyond to stem an expected refugee inflow. Governments from Islamabad to Ankara and Tehran have bolstered border restrictions in anticipation of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the new regime in Kabul. Those actions and similar curbs signaled by Western countries have highlighted an emerging tension between claims of international sympathy for Afghan refugees and the reality on the ground. Governments are worried that refugees could start to pour out and exacerbate political and social problems created by previous influxes. Caught in the middle of this conundrum are Afghans who have escaped to Iran, in the hope of bringing their family over the border and possibly further afield. Ankara is fortifying a three-meter-high wall along part of its 560-km border with Iran that it started building in 2017. Iran has closed its border with Afghanistan and returned refugees, according to a Tehran newspaper. Pakistan’s army claims to have sealed all irregular crossings from Afghanistan, though domestic media have reported increased human trafficking across the border.
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As Taliban Seek International Acceptance, Countries Seek to Engage—but Stop Short of Recognition

With a new government in place and uncontested control over the country, Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are clamoring for international recognition of their reinstated Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Nearly a month after the fall of the Afghan republic, no nation has granted such recognition so far. Yet, governments world-wide, as well as the United Nations, are eager to open high-level contacts with the Taliban, especially as the country faces a humanitarian crisis. Some Western governments say that such dialogue with the Taliban is possible—and desirable—without de jure recognition of their administration. “Before recognition they should have some sort of mandate by the political will of the people,” a senior Western diplomat said. “But apart from the question of recognition we can interact with them, we can engage with them.” Before the reopening of Western embassies, all closed since the Aug. 15 fall of Kabul, that engagement can take the form of diplomats making short-term visits to Kabul, security conditions on the ground permitting, the diplomat added. Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on Sept 12 became the first foreign government minister to visit Kabul since the Taliban takeover.
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Afghan Kabul airport to be ready for int’l flights soon: official

Kabul International Airport will soon be ready for international flights as efforts are underway to remove technical problems, airport director Abdul Hadi Hamadani said Sept 13. “The domestic flights have already begun and the international flights would begin soon and efforts are underway to remove the remaining 10 to 15 percent technical problems at the airport,” Hamadani said in a video clip as quoted by local media. He made the remarks after the landing of a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) plane at the Kabul airport and its taking off on Sept 13. The Kabul airport were damaged with its many facilities destroyed during the withdrawal of the last U.S.-led forces and American nationals on Aug. 31, according to him. Hamadani also confirmed that the airport has received planes carrying humanitarian assistances from Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, adding that similar flights from Russia and Turkey are expected to arrive in the coming days.
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Taliban announces formation of new government, including some ministers sanctioned and WANTED by US

The Taliban has begun to fill government positions following its successful conquest of Afghanistan. Among the names are people still on the UN Security Council sanction list and a minister with a $5-million US bounty on his head. Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, a co-founder and head of the Taliban’s leadership council, was named acting Prime Minister of Afghanistan on Sept 07, with other senior Taliban leaders approving his nomination. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, considered the militant group’s de-facto leader, was named Deputy Prime Minister, according to a Taliban spokesman. Akhund is considered a terrorist by the UN, EU and UK, and has been sanctioned by the UN Security Council, along with every member of the Taliban government named on Sept 07. The US considers some Taliban factions to be Foreign Terrorist Organizations and sanctions the entire Taliban as a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ organization. Baradar was once hunted by the US, before being captured and jailed by Pakistani authorities. Sirajuddin Haqqani was named Acting Interior Minister, with his appointment standing out for one reason: Haqqani is considered an international terrorist by US authorities, with the FBI offering a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to his arrest.
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Drone attack targets Erbil International Airport hosting US-led coalition forces, multiple explosions reported

Footage from witnesses has captured multiple explosions at the Erbil International Airport in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The blasts were apparently from a drone strike targeting the airport, which is used by the US-led coalition. Local media reported, citing Kurdistan Region’s Directorate of Counter Terrorism (CTD), that “explosive-laden drones” targeted the air hub, which is hosting US forces that are part of the multinational coalition against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) in Iraq. At least six blasts were heard in the vicinity of the airport, Reuters reported, citing witnesses. Lawk Ghafuri, head of Kurdistan’s foreign media relations, confirmed the airport was attacked “with a drone,” dismissing reports of casualties or damage as false. Ghafuri said the explosion was “away from Erbil International Airport’s terminals and territories.” Missile defense systems were deployed to repel the attack, a source with the coalition forces told the media. It is unclear if the drones targeting the airport made an impact, the source said, noting that an investigation into the incident is still underway. The air hub has faced multiple attacks this year, and US officials have chalked up the aggression to militia groups targeting the US service members still remaining in the country.
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Iran hails ‘historic’ naval mission in Atlantic Ocean, the waters of the ‘arrogant powers’

The Iranian military has hailed the end of a successful mission in which its 77th strategic naval fleet ventured into the Atlantic for the first time, before returning to Iran, traveling some 45,000km (28,000 nautical miles). On Sept 07, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani praised his country’s seamen for their successful voyage. He called it the “largest historical military event in the sea field” and said the fleet had comprised the Sahand destroyer and the intelligence-gathering Makran logistics-support ship, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Irani said the fleet had travelled across three oceans – the Indian, South Atlantic and North Atlantic – covering around 45,000km (28,000 nautical miles). The admiral claimed the mission had demonstrated Iran’s self-confidence on the global stage but stressed that his nation invited all regional partners to come together in “peace and friendship.” The locally manufactured Sahand destroyer illustrated the nation’s scientific achievements, he said. He added that the mission had demonstrated the country’s “capability and authority” in waters where “the arrogant powers are present.” United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the mission was of “great concern.”
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IAEA-Iran agreement raises hopes for new nuclear talks with US

The UN atomic watchdog reached an agreement with Iran to solve “the most urgent issue” between them, the overdue servicing of monitoring equipment to keep it running, raising hopes of fresh talks on a wider deal with the West. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi obtained the agreement Sept 12 in a last-minute trip to Tehran he called “constructive” before a meeting of his agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors this week at which Western powers were threatening to seek a resolution criticising Iran for stonewalling the IAEA. A resolution risked an escalation with Tehran that could kill the prospect of resuming wider, indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, aimed at keeping Iran at arm’s length from being able to develop a nuclear weapon if it chose to. It denies ever wanting to do so. Those talks stopped in June, and Iran’s hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office in August. Western powers have urged Iran to return to negotiations and said time is running out as its nuclear programme is advancing well beyond the limits set by the deal, which Washington abandoned in 2018.
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Myanmar parallel government calls for revolt against regime

The head of Myanmar’s anti-coup parallel government has declared a “defensive war” against the military regime in a sign of escalating conflict in the Southeast Asian country. Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government (NUG) formed by politicians elected in last November’s general election and activists opposing the Feb. 1 military takeover, on Sept 07 used Facebook to urge citizens “in every corner of the country” to rebel against the military regime led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. He also called on armed ethnic groups to take collective action. Duwa Lashi La also said the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) — the shadow government’s military arm launched in May — will “protect the lives and properties of the people.” Special envoy Erywan Yus of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, who is second foreign minister of Brunei, had earlier called for a four-month cease-fire. But the NUG president called for bureaucrats currently working under the military regime to leave their posts. “All the civil servants under the military council, we warn and forbid you from going to the office from today onward.”
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Malaysia politics reflects growing influence of King Abdullah

The ceremony commemorating Malaysian independence from Britain on Aug. 31 fully revealed the Southeast Asian nation’s political turmoil. King Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah called for an end to political bickering to shield the country from the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysians confirmed with COVID-19 infections have continued to tally as high as 20,000 each day, and the country was bottom of Bloomberg’s COVID Resilience Ranking of 53 economies in August. This rolling crisis has highlighted political dysfunction but also raised the profile of the royal family. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin rocked Malaysian politics on Aug. 16 by resigning after he lost majority support in parliament amid fractiousness in the fragile ruling coalition. Yassin’s departure created the risk of a political vacuum while governing and opposition parties counted numbers to find a successor, but the king quickly moved to stabilize the situation. King Abdullah has become much more noticeable in recent years. Malaysia’s constitution stipulates that the king appoints an elected member of parliament as prime minister if he is deemed to have the backing of the majority of lower house members. That apparently simple calculation can stoke heated controversy, however.
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South Korea becomes first nation without nuclear weapons to develop submarine-launched ballistic missile capability – media

South Korea has successfully test-fired a domestically developed submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), becoming the first nation without nuclear weapons to develop the technology, according to media reports on Sept 07. The tests, which were conducted by South Korea’s Agency for Defense Development, saw the nation stage successful SLBM underwater ejection tests from a Dosan Ahn Changho submarine, the country’s Yonhap News Agency claimed, citing military sources. The military drill, which follows a previous successful test conducted from an underwater barge in August, is the first in a serious of exercises that will be held before the SLBM enters mass production within South Korea, ahead of its deployment. The South Korean SLBM is believed to be a variant of the existing Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, which would be able to travel up to 500 kilometers, providing the nation with the ability to strike any target in North Korea from its submarines. SLBMs have a tactical advantage over land-based ballistic missiles, as they are harder to detect in advance and can often be launched quickly, allowing swift surprise attacks to be conducted, bolstering South Korea’s deterrence capability amid ongoing threats from North Korea.
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China calls for restraint as North Korea tests cruise missile able to reach Japan

North Korea’s cruise missile tests over the weekend may have caught the world off guard, and prompted “concern” in neighbouring Japan, but indicate only a limited increase in the country’s military strength, according to analysts. However, Pyongyang’s latest move was certain to disappoint North Korea doves and make the hawks harden their stance, they said, as China called for restraint in the region. The missiles are “a strategic weapon of great significance” and flew 1,500km (930 miles) before hitting their targets and falling into the country’s territorial waters during the tests on Sep 11-12, KCNA said. They travelled for 126 minutes along “oval and pattern-8 flight orbits”, it reported on Sept 13. The missile tests, which appear to be the country’s first since late March, came days after North Korea celebrated the 73rd anniversary of its founding with a military parade in Pyongyang. They also came just a day before senior officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan were due to meet in Tokyo to discuss North Korean issues, including denuclearisation. Also, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Seoul this week for talks with his counterpart Chung Eui-yong, on the final stop of a week-long four-nation regional tour.
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Quad partners India and Australia eye closer security ties

India and Australia vowed on Sept 11 to deepen their security cooperation, especially following the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, as the world marks the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. India and Australia, along with the United States and Japan, are members of the Quad, an informal grouping of the four large democracies in the Indo-Pacific region formed primarily to address the challenge of an increasingly powerful China. Developments in Afghanistan, where the Taliban have seized power following the departure of U.S. and other foreign troops after two decades, were the main topic of talks between Indian and Australian ministers in New Delhi. “We have a geopolitical environment which is in rapid flux and we must, bilaterally and with other like-minded partners, respond adequately to safeguard our national interests as well as ensure a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” Jaishankar said. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said the two countries had decided to expand military engagement and he invited Australia to participate in the production and development of defense equipment in India.
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Suga considers U.S. visit in September to attend ‘Quad’ meeting

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is considering visiting the United States in late September as Washington seeks to hold a quadrilateral summit also involving Australia and India to strengthen ties amid China’s growing clout in the Indo-Pacific region, government sources said Sept 09. Last week, Suga expressed his intention not to seek a second term, saying he will not run in the upcoming presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party but will serve out his term through Sept. 30. The Sept. 29 election effectively decides the next prime minister as the LDP controls the powerful House of Representatives. “Whoever is chosen as the next prime minister will strive for (maintaining) the Japan-U.S. alliance, so it is important to deliver the message that we are focused on the alliance through the prime minister’s U.S. visit,” said a source. Suga is also considering holding separate talks with Biden, according to the source. “No specific schedule has been set,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said at a news conference Sept 09. On whether the prime minister should take a trip abroad although he will soon step down, the top government spokesman said only, “That will be decided by the United States, the host of the Quad summit.”
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Japan says suspected Chinese submarine seen near territorial waters

Japan’s defense ministry said on Sept 12 that a submarine believed to be from China was spotted in waters near its southern islands, as maritime tensions persist in the Pacific. Japan’s navy on Sept 10 morning identified a submerged vessel sailing northwest just outside territorial waters near Amami Oshima island, part of Kagoshima prefecture, the ministry said in a statement. A Chinese destroyer was also spotted in the vicinity. Tokyo has complained of numerous intrusions by Chinese vessels of its territorial waters and near disputed islands in recent years. China has often reacted angrily to U.S. ships sailing through disputed areas of the South China Sea in what Washington calls displays of freedom of navigation. Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, visiting Vietnam during a Southeast Asia trip, said those two countries should refrain from unilateral actions regarding the South China Sea that could complicate and magnify disputes. Sept 12’s announcement said Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force identified the vessels in a contiguous zone, which is outside territorial waters where vessels are required to identify themselves. The submarine continued underwater westward in the ocean near Yokoate Island, the ministry said.
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Israeli prime minister visits Egypt in first official trip for a decade

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Sept 13 for talks on Israeli-Palestinian relations and bilateral issues, Egypt’s presidency said, in the first official trip by an Israeli head of government to Egypt for a decade. Bennett, the head of a far-right party who took office in June, was invited to visit by Sisi last month and the two were due to meet in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the southern tip of Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. The discussions were expected to address “ways and efforts to revive the peace process” between Israel and the Palestinians, Egypt’s presidency said in a statement, as well as bilateral and regional matters. Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians collapsed in 2014 and analysts say there is little prospect of reviving them. Bennett, a nationalist atop a cross-partisan coalition, opposes Palestinian statehood. One focus of Sept 13’s talks will be the situation in the Gaza Strip, where Egypt helped broker a ceasefire after 11 days of conflict in May between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that controls the enclave, diplomatic and security sources said.
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Singapore submits bill to fight ‘foreign interference’

Singapore’s government introduced a bill in parliament on Sept 13 to prevent what it called foreign interference in domestic politics, which proposes empowering authorities to issue take-down orders against “hostile information campaigns”. The Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Bill targets content that “can cause immediate and significant harm in Singapore, such as inciting violence or causing hostility between groups”, the home ministry said. If social media companies failed to comply with requests, Internet service providers may be ordered to block harmful content locally. The bill also proposes blocking downloads of applications used to spread such content. “We have also seen many instances in recent years where social media and communications technologies were used by entities to mount HICs against other countries,” the ministry said, referring to hostile information campaigns. It described those as “covert, coordinated and sophisticated” activities with aims like manipulating public opinion, subverting democratic institutions, polarising society, or influencing election outcomes. The ministry said the law would not apply to Singaporeans expressing political views, unless they were agents of a foreign entity. Neither would it apply to foreign individuals or foreign publications “reporting or commenting on Singapore politics, in an open, transparent and attributable way”, even if critical of Singapore or its government.
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Medical
Rich states should stop hoarding Covid vaccines for boosters not yet backed by science, redirect jabs to Africa – African Union

Wealthy states should send their Covid jabs to under-vaccinated Africa rather than stashing doses away for booster shots which are not yet proven to be necessary, the African Union’s (AU) top health official has said. Speaking at a news conference on Sept 09, John Nkengasong, the director for the continent’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) blasted high-income nations for their eagerness to administer a third shot. “The problem we have with the third doses is we have not seen enough science behind them,” the African CDC chief stated, adding that countries rushing to offer a booster shot will “surely be gambling” without data supporting its use. Nkengasong warned that states offering third shots would make it harder for Africa to reach its goal of inoculating 60-70% of its population. According to statistics from the Africa CDC, only 3% of the continent is fully jabbed, while just over 5% have received one dose. The remarks come after the World Health Organization’s (WHO) head, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called for an “extension of the [booster] moratorium until at least the end of the year, to enable every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population” at a briefing on Sept 08.
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Coronavirus: Southeast Asian countries choose to reopen, balancing virus with economy

Even as they struggle with one of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreaks, nations across Southeast Asia are slowly realising that they can no longer afford the economy-crippling restrictions needed to squash it. On the factory floors of Vietnam and Malaysia, in the barbershops of Manila or office towers of Singapore, regulators are pushing forward with plans to reopen, seeking to balance containing the virus with keeping people and money moving. That is leading to a range of experiments including military-delivered food, sequestered workers, micro-lockdowns and vaccinated-only access to restaurants and offices. In contrast to Europe and the US, which have already moved down the reopening path, the region’s low vaccination rates leave it among the world’s most vulnerable to the Delta variant. But with state finances stretched by previous rounds of stimulus and dwindling monetary policy firepower, lockdowns are becoming less tenable by the day. “It’s a tricky balance between lives and livelihoods,” said Krystal Tan, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group economist, noting that even Singapore has struggled with infection spikes despite having a world-leading vaccination rate.
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