Tag Archives: Israel

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 13 December – 19 December 2021

Economic
Belt and Road sit-in at Pakistan port shows no sign of ending

A massive sit-in protest has engulfed the Pakistani city of Gwadar, home to the country’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative port project in the country, severely damaging prospects for more Chinese investment in Gwadar, experts say. The monthlong sit-in, led by Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman, a local political leader, has drawn thousands of people to the Give Rights to Gwadar Movement. The demonstrators, many of them women, are camped at the entrance to the Chinese-controlled port, where they listen to Rehman’s fiery speeches. The protest has generated headlines in Pakistan and touched off a debate in the media. The demonstrators are demanding an end to deep-sea fishing by trawlers in nearby waters, removal of security checkpoints in the city and freer trade with neighboring Iran. The port in Gwadar is the centerpiece of $50 billion in projects that make up the Pakistan portion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known locally as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan acknowledged the protests on Dec 13, tweeting, “I have taken notice of the very legitimate demands of the hardworking fishermen of Gwadar. Will be taking strong action against illegal fishing by trawlers & will also speak to [the chief minister of] Balochistan.” Click here to read…

Spotlight on trade gateway as India hosts talks with Central Asia

An India-backed project to transform an Iranian port into a trade gateway to Central Asia is expected to be high on the agenda as New Delhi hosts annual talks with countries from the region on Dec 19. The foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will join the meeting, looking to push ahead with plans to energize trade and cooperation even as chaos in neighboring Afghanistan threatens to overshadow their economies. Analysts say India sees the meeting as a prime chance to promote trade to and from Central Asia through Iran’s Chabahar Port, which it has spent years helping to develop. India initially started discussions with Tehran on the port around 2003. But major progress came in 2016, when New Delhi announced during a visit to Iran’s capital by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that it would invest $500 million in a mega project to develop the site. The first phase of that was inaugurated in late 2017. Chabahar sits on the Gulf of Oman, to which India has direct maritime access. The port could also open opportunities for Indian companies in Iran itself and countries beyond Central Asia such as Russia. Under the first phase of the port contract, India is required to equip and operate two berths on a 10-year lease. Click here to read…

South Korea fights supply-chain risks with economic security team

South Korea is ramping up efforts to identify and mitigate supply-chain risks as shortages and restrictions at key exporters loom large over the country’s most important industries. To this end, South Korea will launch a center dedicated to economic security and diplomacy under its foreign ministry as early as February. The ministry in its 2022 budget has set aside 2.55 billion won ($2.16 million) for the center, slated initially to comprise about 10 researchers. Responding to “global shifts in supply chains,” the center will ascertain which parts and materials the country relies on imports and suggest ways for South Korea to diversify its supply, the ministry said. It will also place staff at South Korean diplomatic missions in strategically significant countries to conduct research. A similar team is expected to take shape under South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, South Korean news outlets report. It will work with the foreign ministry center to obtain and analyze timely information regarding countries that provide key materials. China accounts for 80% or more of South Korea’s supply in 1,850 materials, including rare earths. The U.S. comes next with 503, followed by Japan with 438. Click here to read…

Japan to require cyber defenses at infrastructure companies

Japan looks to require that companies in key infrastructure sectors such as finance, telecom and transport have plans for coping with cyberattacks, in response to a rise in such incidents globally. The government will urge corporate managers to take the lead in making organizational changes and devising these plans, in addition to ensuring that equipment is secure. Tokyo will spell out these steps by April as it makes the first full revision of the country’s key infrastructure action plan since 2017. The new rules, which focus on economic security, will take effect in fiscal 2022. Countries worldwide are scrambling to bolster defenses, viewing an all-hands-on-deck approach as necessary to deal with increasingly sophisticated attacks. Japan regards roughly 1,700 financial institutions as key infrastructure, according to official data as of the end of fiscal 2020. About 1,300 telecommunications operators, 22 railways and 29 utilities also would be covered by the new rules. The other sectors are airlines, airport operators, gas providers, government services, medical institutions, waterworks, logistics, chemicals, credit and oil. Japan’s cybersecurity plan previously has been part of government guidelines, but not legally binding. The anticipated revision will make the plan more effective, as measures would be clearly based on cybersecurity laws. Click here to read…

China’s central bank cuts benchmark LPR to 3.8% to bring down financing costs

China’s central bank decided to lower the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) for the first time in 20 months, following a 50 basis-point universal cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on December 15, in line with the policy guideline released by the Central Economic Work Conference to accelerate economic growth in 2022. The one-year LPR was set at 3.8 percent compared with 3.85 percent over the past 20 months, while the five-year LPR remains unchanged at 4.65 percent, according to a statement released by the People’s Bank of China on Dec 20. The central bank decision to trim LPR will reduce the financing cost of Chinese enterprises in order to better stimulate their vitality and stave off downward economic pressure at the end of 2021, analysts said. China has kept the LPR unchanged for 20 months. The last time that the country adjusted the LPR was in April 2020, when the one-year LPR was cut from 4.05 percent to 3.85 percent. The LPR is a lending reference rate announced monthly by the central bank, taking in account of 18 commercial lenders which submit a monthly quotation by adding a premium over the Medium-term Lending Facility rate. It is also seen as the de facto benchmark reference rate for lending by Chinese banks. Click here to read…

With US-China trade deal set to expire, insiders reveal what’s really happening behind the scenes

With the phase-one trade deal between the world’s two largest economies due to expire at year’s end, Chinese scholars say supply-side issues are an impediment to China’s ability to meet purchasing targets. Multiple sources in China also told the Post that the two countries have engaged in phase-one discussions at various levels and with more frequency than has been publicly disclosed. And before the Xi-Biden summit in November, they say, the China side vowed to “buy whatever the US can ship over”. But for now, China continues to lag behind in its commitment to buy at least US$200 billion worth of additional American goods and services, relative to the 2017 level, including US$162.1 billion worth of physical goods. China’s total purchases of US goods from January 2020 to October 2021 reached only 60 per cent of the pledged total, according to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Supply-chain disruptions, which intensified this year, have inevitably weighed on China’s imports of American goods, according to analysts. However, such disruptions have not been a determining factor, and neither is politics. For some products, China is more than willing to use its state power to stockpile amid volatility in the commodities market. But for others, China simply does not need, or is unwilling to buy, so much. Click here to read…

China and Russia to establish independent financial systems: Russian media

Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries following talks between the top leaders, Russian media outlet RT reported on Dec 15. The move will help both countries deter the threat of the US government’s long-arm jurisdiction based on the US dollar denominated international payment network, experts said. During the talks on Dec 15, top leaders of the two countries called for increasing the share of national currencies in mutual settlements and expanding cooperation to provide Russian and Chinese investors with access to stock markets, said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor, according to RT. Ushakov said that “particular attention was paid to the need to intensify efforts to form an independent financial infrastructure to service trade operations between Russia and China.” “We mean creating an infrastructure that cannot be influenced by third countries,” Ushakov added. The move appears to be Russian’s response to a series threats that the US could push to disconnect Russia from the Brussels-based SWIFT financial system as a form of sanctions, Li Xin, Director of the Center for Russian and Central Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times on Dec 16. Click here to read…

ByteDance overtakes Ant Group as the world’s most valuable unicorn, Hurun rankings show

TikTok-owner ByteDance surpassed Ant Group to become the world’s largest unicorn, with start-ups from the US and China continuing to dominate the landscape, according to the latest Hurun Global Unicorn Index. This is despite Chinese companies coming under regulatory scrutiny both at home and in the US. Of the 1,058 unicorns – start-ups valued at more than US$1 billion – globally as of November this year, China had 301 start-ups, the most after the 487 in the US, according to this year’s index released by Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute on Dec 20. Beijing-based ByteDance, whose flagship app TikTok has 1 billion monthly active users globally and is viewed as a serious challenger to Facebook, saw its valuation surge nearly 30 per cent to US$350 billion, from US$270 billion last year. Ant Group, an affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding and operator of online payment platform Alipay, was valued at US$150 billion. The top 10 largest global unicorns made up 25 per cent of the overall value of the world’s unicorns of US$3.7 trillion, according to the report. Four of them were from the US, three from China, while Australia, UK and Sweden had one each. Click here to read…

Warnings about DJI drones over spying expand US-China tech war beyond tech giants Huawei, Tencent and ByteDance

On Dec 16, the Biden administration blocked American investment in the company, a year after President Donald Trump prohibited it from sourcing US parts. Now, lawmakers from both parties are weighing a bill that would ban federal purchases of DJI drones, while a member of the Federal Communications Commission wants its products taken off the market in the US altogether. In many ways, DJI has become the poster child of a much wider national security threat: The Chinese government’s ability to obtain sensitive data on millions of Americans. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been far ahead of the West in realising the importance of data in gaining both an economic and military advantage, according to Matt Pottinger, a former deputy national security adviser in the Trump Administration. In the drone world, no firm is more prolific than DJI: The Chinese company commands more than 50 per cent of the US drone market, the FCC said in October, and research firm DroneAnalyst estimates it sells about 95 per cent of the unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, priced between US$350 and US$2,000 targeted at consumers. Click here to read…

China’s Growing Access to Global Shipping Data Worries U.S.

China’s expanding grip on data about the world’s cargo flows is sparking concern in Washington and among industry officials that Beijing could exploit its logistics information for commercial or strategic advantage. Even cargo that never touches Chinese shores often still passes through Beijing’s globe-spanning logistics networks, including through sophisticated data systems that track shipments transiting ports located far from China. Control over the flow of goods and information about them gives Beijing privileged insight into world commerce and potentially the means to influence it, say cargo-industry officials. With ports clogged globally and shortages plaguing many industries, shipping data has become an enormously valuable commodity. Foremost among China’s cargo-data systems is Logink, a digital network that links shippers internationally and describes itself as a “one-stop logistics information service platform.” Logink says it draws on a mix of public databases and information input by more than 450,000 users in China and at dozens of giant ports world-wide, including across the Belt and Road initiative, China’s trillion-dollar international infrastructure project, and as part of what Beijing calls the Digital Silk Road. Logink’s international reach highlights a field critical to the world economy where the West lags behind China. Digitization of cargo data has been a dream of shippers for years. Click here to read…

Turkish, Qatari companies sign MoU to operate 5 Afghan airports

Turkish and Qatari companies inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to jointly run five airports in Afghanistan, including Kabul airport, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Dec 20. A Turkish delegation will travel to Doha on late Dec 20 to discuss the deal for operating the Afghan capital’s airport, and later they will head to Kabul together to have talks with the interim government of Afghanistan, Cavusoglu said at a press conference. “We will present joint proposals to the Afghanistan interim administration,” he noted. “If our conditions are met, we can operate the airports with Qatar. If the conditions are not met, there is no obligation for us to operate them,” he said. The Taliban group have taken control of Afghanistan after the U.S. forces withdrew from the country in summer. Click here to read…

Turkish lira hits turbulence as Erdogan cites Islam as reason for monetary policy

Turkey’s lira dropped further on Dec 20 before recovering slightly following a speech by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on state television that cited Islam as a reason for not raising interest rates despite a rapidly depreciating currency and rampant inflation. Erdogan has repeatedly called on the central bank to lower borrowing costs despite an annual inflation rate of more than 20%. Mainstream economists believe the outcome of Erdogan’s Islamic-infused experiments with the currency could result in consumer inflation reaching 30% or higher in the months ahead. However, in his remarks on state television, Erdogan insisted it was Islam that guided his decision in demanding the central bank keep interest rates low. He also promised aid to exporters and increased government contributions to pension funds. “As a Muslim, I will continue doing what our religion tells us. This is the command,” Erdogan said. At one point in Dec 20’s trading, the lira dropped more than 11% against the dollar to around 18.40, an all-time low, before recovering some of those losses later in day. Many Turks are struggling to afford basic goods and services. Click here to read…

Strategic
China, Russia eye supercharged energy ties as shield against U.S.

Russia and China appear to be making headway toward a new gas pipeline that analysts say would help both countries hedge against growing tensions with the West. On Dec 15, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping held a video call in which they presented a united front on issues ranging from the U.S.-led AUKUS partnership, the Biden administration’s recent Summit of Democracies and NATO’s expansion to the east. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said the leaders also spoke about the Power of Siberia-2 project — a proposed mega-pipeline through Mongolia that could deliver up to 50 billion cu. meters of Russian gas to China annually. Just one day later, Putin hosted Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh at the Kremlin to discuss the progress being made on Power of Siberia-2 among other issues. Although Moscow and Beijing still have to agree on pricing for Power of Siberia-2 before construction can begin, industry watchers predict that the long-awaited pipeline will not only significantly boost Russian gas exports to China — which has faced severe energy shortages this year — but also reduce Moscow’s dependence on European markets and Beijing’s reliance on maritime routes controlled by U.S. warships. Click here to read…

Kremlin: Xi supports Putin’s pursuit of guarantees from West

Chinese President Xi Jinping supported Russian President Vladimir Putin in his push to get Western security guarantees precluding NATO’s eastward expansion, the Kremlin said Dec 15 after the two leaders held a virtual summit. Putin and Xi spoke as Moscow faces heightened tensions with the West over a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine’s border. In recent weeks, Western nations engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent a possible invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied harboring plans to storm its neighbor. Putin, meanwhile, demanded guarantees that NATO will not expand to Ukraine or deploy troops and weapons there. He told Xi on Dec 15 about “mounting threats to Russia’s national interests from the U.S. and the NATO bloc, which consistently move their military infrastructure close to the Russian borders,” Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said. The Russian leader stressed the need to hold talks with NATO and the U.S. on legally binding security guarantees, according to Ushakov. Xi responded by saying he “understands Russia’s concerns and fully supports our initiative to work out these security guarantees for Russia,” Ushakov said. He said Moscow’s proposals have been passed on to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried, who visited Moscow on Dec 15 and met with Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov. Click here to read…

China welcomes US competition but is not afraid of confrontation, Wang Yi says

Beijing welcomes mutually beneficial cooperation and healthy competition with the United States but is not afraid of confrontation, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. “China’s attitude is consistent and clear,” Wang said on Dec 20. “Dialogue is OK, but it should be equal; cooperation is welcome, but it should be reciprocal; competition is not harmful, but it should be healthy. [China] is not afraid of confrontation and will [persist] to the end.” The comments were made at a symposium in Beijing on China’s diplomacy, two weeks after the US hosted a democracy summit without China and announced a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in China over the country’s human rights record. Noting that 2022 would be 50 years since former US president Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China that broke the ice between the two countries, Wang said on Dec 20 that Beijing and Washington should again work to achieve a thaw. The speech outlined China’s diplomacy priorities for the next year, listing the Olympics as the top item and briefly covering Beijing’s plans for its ties with Russia and European nations before turning last to US-China relations. Click here to read…

UAE tells U.S. it will suspend F-35 talks following Huawei unease

The United Arab Emirates has informed the United States that it will suspend discussions to acquire F-35 fighter jets, a UAE official said on Dec 14, part of a $23 billion deal that also includes drones and other advanced munitions. The sale of 50 F-35 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin to the UAE had slowed amid concerns in Washington over Abu Dhabi’s relationship with China, including use of Huawei 5G technology in the country. “Technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions, and cost/benefit analysis led to the re-assessment,” the UAE official said in a statement to Reuters that confirmed a report in the Wall Street Journal. “The U.S. remains the UAE’s preferred provider for advanced defense requirements and discussions for the F-35 may be re-opened in the future,” the official said, adding there were discussions to “address mutual defense security conditions for the acquisition”. A person briefed on the negotiations said for several months sticking points between the United States and the UAE revolved around how the stealthy jets can be deployed and how much of the sophisticated F-35 technology the Emiratis will be allowed to take advantage of. Click here to read…

Japan Foreign Ministry to create senior post on Taiwan

The Japanese Foreign Ministry plans to create a senior position dedicated to Taiwan-related issues in fiscal 2022, reflecting Tokyo’s concern over rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei. The senior coordinator for Taiwan affairs will work under the ministry’s First China and Mongolia Division, according to a proposal presented to members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Dec 17. “We’re seeing a growing number of tasks related to Taiwan in national security, foreign policy and economic security,” Masahisa Sato, director of the LDP Foreign Affairs Division, said in announcing the planned role to reporters. “It’s a big step.” The official also will handle diplomatic issues tied to the East China Sea including the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu. The proposal comes amid tensions in the Taiwan Strait. China repeatedly sends warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, raising concerns that Beijing may be rehearsing for a military invasion of the island. “It looks a lot like them exploring their true capabilities,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California earlier this month. Click here to read…

Chinese spies have penetrated Taiwan’s military, case documents reveal

For more than 20 years, Xie Xizhang presented himself as a Hong Kong businessman on visits to Taiwan. He now stands accused of having another mission: Recruiting spies for China. On one trip in 2006, Xie met a senior retired Taiwanese navy officer, Chang Pei-ning, over a meal, according to official documents accusing the pair of espionage. Chang would become one of Xie’s agents, the documents allege, helping him penetrate Taiwan’s active military leadership as part of a long-running Chinese operation to build a spy ring among serving and retired military officers. This comes amid a series of convictions for military espionage in Taiwan in recent years. Those cases reveal that China has mounted a broader campaign to undermine the democratic island’s military and civilian leadership, corrode its will to fight, extract details of high-tech weapons and gain insights into defence planning, according to senior retired Taiwanese military officers and current counterespionage agents, as well as former US military and intelligence officers with experience in Taiwan. Taiwan’s spy catchers are battling a campaign that has compromised senior officers at the heart of the island’s armed forces and government agencies, a steady stream of convictions handed down in the courts shows. Beijing has even penetrated the security detail assigned to protect Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. Click here to read…

U.S. defense bill triples Indo-Pacific fund and heads to Biden’s desk

Congress wants the U.S. military to further strengthen its posture in the Indo-Pacific region to fend off Chinese aggression. That was the message sent when the Senate passed the annual defense spending bill Dec 15, taking a more hawkish stance than the White House’s budget request from May. The bigger spending bill allows the Pentagon to build more ships and retire fewer. A fund specifically aimed at the Indo-Pacific was tripled from the year before. The $778 billion bill for fiscal 2022, up 5% from the prior year, cleared the House earlier this month and will be signed into law soon by President Joe Biden. Lawmakers’ hawkish tilt toward China was underscored by the $7.1 billion earmarked for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) — more than the $5.1 billion requested by the administration. The U.S. looks to disperse its Pacific forces along the “first island chain,” which spans Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines, as concentrating them in just a few locations risks leaving them vulnerable to a Chinese missile strike. The PDI will be used to ramp up construction and updating of base infrastructure and military facilities, as well as improve supply lines for resources such as ammunition and fuel. Part of the PDI funding is expected to go toward missile defense. Click here to read…

UN talks on killer robots fail

UN talks aimed at thrashing out rules on the use of fully autonomous weapons systems have stumbled on stiff opposition from countries that invest heavily in military AI, leaving a legal vacuum. On Dec 17, the sixth review conference of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) failed to arrange further negotiations on the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Parties to the convention merely agreed to continue discussions instead. Despite calls for an “ambitious plan” made earlier by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the five-day gathering in Geneva bore little fruit, after nations that are investing heavily in the development of ‘killer robots’ blocked a decision on the establishment of legally-binding rules. According to Reuters, citing unnamed sources, among the vetoing countries were the US, Russia, and India. A number of states and NGOs have expressed dismay at the lack of progress in Geneva. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg and New Zealand Minister for Disarmament and Arms Control Phil Twyford have pointed out the importance of developing new international laws regulating autonomous weapons. Click here to read…

Iran begins technical, security inspection of cameras to be installed in Karaj site

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) on Dec 19 began technical and security inspection of cameras which are to be installed at Iran’s Karaj centrifuge producing plant by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the AEOI announced. Iran had set three conditions for the replacement of damaged cameras in Karaj, which are “carrying out judicial and security investigations on the dimensions of sabotage, condemnation (of sabotage act) by the IAEA and technical and security inspections of the cameras before installation,” Kamalvandi told Iran’s state TV in an interview. “Iran’s voluntary act to issue a license to replace these cameras was not due to a new agreement (with the IAEA), but it was done after these three preconditions are met,” he said. On Dec 26, Kamalvandi said that following exchange of views between the AEOI and the IAEA, it was decided that the agency should cooperate duly with the AEOI to ensure that the cameras would not be used for acts of sabotage at TESA Karaj Complex, a centrifuge component manufacturing workshop in north-central part of the country. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Dec 15 that reinstallation of surveillance cameras at the facility is an important development for the IAEA’s verification and monitoring activities in Iran. Click here to read…

Security Council extends mandate of team monitoring sanctions against Taliban-linked entities

The UN Security Council decided on Dec 17 to extend for 12 months the mandate of the team monitoring sanctions against individuals and entities associated with the Taliban, as well as other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with the Taliban in constituting a threat to the peace, stability and security of Afghanistan. Unanimously adopting Resolution 2611, the 15-member council directed the monitoring team to gather information on instances of non-compliance with the measures imposed in Resolution 2255, and to facilitate, upon request by member states, capacity-building assistance. It further directed the monitoring team to provide recommendations to the committee on actions taken to respond to non-compliance. The council highlighted the importance of ensuring that the monitoring team receives the necessary support to effectively, safely and in a timely manner fulfil its mandate. The council also decided to actively review the implementation of the measures outlined in this resolution and to consider adjustments, as necessary, to support peace and stability in Afghanistan. Click here to read…

Islamic countries pledge fund to stave off Afghanistan ‘chaos’

Islamic countries pledged on Dec 19 to set up a humanitarian trust fund for Afghanistan as, with millions facing hunger and a harsh winter setting in, Pakistan’s prime minister warned of chaos if the worsening emergency was not urgently addressed. The crisis is causing mounting alarm but the international response has been muted, given Western reluctance to help the Taliban government, which seized power in August. “Unless action is taken immediately, Afghanistan is heading for chaos,” Prime Minister Imran Khan told a meeting of foreign ministers from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Islamabad. The trust fund, announced by Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, will be set up under the aegis of the Islamic Development Bank. Allowing Afghanistan access to reserves frozen outside the country would be key to preventing economic collapse, participants in the meeting – which included representatives from the United Nations, United States, European Union and Japan – said in a statement. But it was unclear how much the fund would contain and the meeting did not provide official recognition to the Taliban government. Acting Afghan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said the government had restored peace and security and done much to address demands for more inclusiveness with respect for human rights, including the rights of women. Click here to read…

Pro-Beijing candidates sweep ‘patriots’-only Hong Kong vote amid low turnout

Pro-Beijing candidates swept to victory in an overhauled “patriots”-only legislative election in Hong Kong that was deemed regressive by critics, with turnout hitting a record low amid a crackdown on the city’s freedoms by China. The turnout of 30.2 percent was almost half that of the previous legislative poll in 2016, with the latest results showing almost all of the seats being taken by pro-Beijing and pro-establishment candidates. Some of these candidates cheered on stage at the central vote counting center and chanted “guaranteed win.” When asked if her political party lacked a public mandate given the low turnout, Starry Lee, the head of the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) that won half of the directly elected seats, said the electoral revamp would improve governance. “I do not believe this (the low turnout) is directly related to citizens not agreeing with this electoral system. I believe it needs some time for people to get adapted to this system,” she told reporters at the vote counting center. The election–in which only candidates screened by the government as “patriots” could run–has been criticized by some activists, foreign governments and rights groups as undemocratic. Mainstream pro-democracy parties did not participate, saying they could not endorse any candidates for a poll that was undemocratic. Click here to read…

2,500 Myanmar villagers flee army troops into Thailand

Fighting between Myanmar government forces and ethnic guerrillas has sent about 2,500 villagers fleeing across the border into Thailand, a Thai army officer said Dec 17. The exodus was the biggest since April, when several thousand villagers from Myanmar’s eastern state of Karen fled to Thailand following airstrikes by Myanmar government forces in territory held by the Karen ethnic minority. They were allowed to stay for a few days then returned to Myanmar. The Karen are one of several ethnic minorities who have been battling for decades for greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government. Fighting between the two sides is intermitten but heated up after the military in February seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. A Thai army officer in the western border province of Tak told The Associated Press that around 2,500 villagers from Myanmar had crossed the Moei River, which marks the border, since Dec 16 to seek shelter in Thailand’s Mae Sot district. The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to release information, said Thai authorities provided the evacuees ― mostly women and children ― with humanitarian assistance including shelter and food, and tested them for COVID-19. Click here to read…

US announces new ‘special coordinator’ for Tibet

The United States named a new “special coordinator for Tibetan Issues” on Dec 20, who will be tasked with restarting dialogue between the Dalai Lama and China, as well as promoting “respect for the human rights” of Tibetans. By assigning the role to a high-ranking official – Under Secretary Uzra Zeya – the Biden administration was demonstrating its commitment to addressing Tibetan issues, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an announcement. While continuing to serve in her current role, Zeya will “promote dialogue between the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Dalai Lama, his representatives, or democratically elected Tibetan leaders”, Blinken said. The announcement will likely increase tension between the United States and China. President Joe Biden had been pressed to act after a bipartisan group from Congress wrote to him in mid-December, requesting that he meet with the Dalai Lama, 86, and press China to restart negotiations which ended over 12 years ago. China’s lack of interest in dialogue has led many observers to believe that Beijing is waiting out the Dalai Lama, hoping that the global movement he has built for greater rights in Tibet will wither away without the leadership of the Buddhist monk turned cultural iconClick here to read…

Erdogan seeks to boost ties at Turkey-Africa summit

Turkey is aiming to deepen economic and military ties on Africa, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in remarks at a major summit of African heads in Istanbul and called for a seat representing the continent at the UN Security Council. Heads of state from 16 African nations, along with more than 102 ministers and representatives of the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States are attending the summit in Istanbul. The Third Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit follows a flurry of activity by Turkey aimed at boosting ties with the continent. In October, Istanbul hosted business leaders and dozens of ministers from African states for a summit aimed specifically at increasing trade. The same month, Erdogan visited Angola, Nigeria, and Togo. “One-point-three billion people live on the African continent, and it is not represented at the Security Council,” Erdogan said on Dec 18. “This is a huge, flagrant injustice. I am still excited and thrilled every time I visit the continent,” Erdogan said, adding that he had made more than 50 trips to the continent and visited more than 30 countries since 2004. “This summit is a testament to the fact that Turkey is interested in Africa and Turkey’s interest in Africa is not a temporary interest, it is a maintained commitment. Our African brothers and sisters are showing they are interested in better cooperation with Turkey.” Click here to read…

Biden administration puts North Korean nuclear issue on backburner

The North Korean nuclear issue appears to have lost priority with the U.S. government, which is focusing heavily on ending China’s control of global supply chains, cross-strait relations and other issues. As Washington shows signs of preserving the status quo with the Kim Jong-un regime, which has in recent years refrained from testing nuclear and long-range missiles, the issue, described as “unproductive,” is feared by some to remain shelved. In April, after its months-long policy review of the totalitarian state, the Joe Biden administration came up with a “calibrated practical approach” to North Korea’s decades-long nuclear problem. However, combined with Pyongyang’s nonresponse to U.S. overtures and U.S. refusals to offer enticements to engage the reclusive state, negotiations on denuclearizing the North have made little progress. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan admitted, Dec 17 (local time), that the U.S. “had not gotten traction in diplomacy with North Korea on that over the course of this year.” “The North Korean nuclear issue was already low on Biden’s agenda as the Kim regime has remained unresponsive to U.S. calls to return to the negotiating table,” said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National StrategyClick here to read…

Medical
WHO sounds warning over fast-spreading Omicron

The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading faster than the Delta variant and is causing infections in people already vaccinated or who have recovered from the COVID-19 disease, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Dec 20. WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan added it would be “unwise” to conclude from early evidence that Omicron was a milder variant that previous ones. “With the numbers going up, all health systems are going to be under strain,” Soumya Swaminathan told Geneva-based journalists. The variant is successfully evading some immune responses, she said, meaning that the booster programmes being rolled out in many countries ought to be targeted towards people with weaker immune systems. “There is now consistent evidence that Omicron is spreading significantly faster than the Delta variant,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the briefing. “And it is more likely people vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 could be infected or re-infected,” Tedros said. Their comments echoed the finding of study by Imperial College London, which said last week the risk of reinfection was more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than DeltaClick here to read…

Novavax’s Covid-19 Vaccine Approved by EU

Novavax Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine was recommended for use by the European Medicines Agency, marking the first endorsement by a major regulator of a shot that uses an established technology. A scientific committee said the Novavax shot, dubbed Nuvaxovid, was safe and effective. The European Commission almost immediately granted conditional marketing authorization in the European Union. The approval applies to adults only. The endorsement broadens the EU’s Covid-19 vaccine menu to include a technology that is widely used against other diseases, including in some routine childhood immunizations, for example against hepatitis B. The use of a long-established vaccine technology may help overcome concerns among people who have been hesitant to take up shots so far. Novavax Chief Executive Stanley Erck said the authorization came “during a critical time when we believe having choice among vaccines will lead to increased immunization.” The shots also can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures, averting the need for the freezers required for some other Covid-19 vaccines. The shot’s efficacy against symptomatic Covid-19 in clinical trials was around 90%, said the EMA. It is the fifth vaccine to win the endorsement of the EMA, and the first to use a traditional approach to vaccination. Click here to read…

S. Korea plans restrictions as it sets new virus record

Halting its steps toward normalcy, South Korea will clamp down on social gatherings and cut the hours of some businesses to fight a record-breaking surge of the coronavirus that has led to a spike in hospitalizations and deaths. Prime Minster Kim Boo-kyum confirmed the government’s intent to restore stricter social distancing measures during a virus meeting on Dec 15 as the country set another new one-day record in infections with 7,850 cases, the fourth time this month the daily tally exceeded 7,000. The country’s death toll is now 4,456 after 70 virus patients died in the past 24 hours, while a record 964 patients were in critical or serious condition. Officials previously said the country’s medical system could buckle if the number of serious cases topped 1,000 because it would greatly hamper hospitals’ ability to respond not only to COVID-19 but also to other medical conditions. The virus surge has been a rude awakening for South Korea, which significantly eased social distancing rules and fully reopened schools in November in what officials had described as a first step toward restoring pre-pandemic normalcy. Click here to read…

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 06 December – 12 December 2021

Economic
G7 fires warning shots over China’s ‘coercive economic policies’ and Russia’s military build-up

The Group of Seven (G7) voiced concern on Dec 12 about what it called China’s “coercive economic policies” and the challenges posed by Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, as two days of meetings between G7 foreign ministers drew to an end in Liverpool. As well as efforts to align their approach to Beijing, the gathering of G7 delegates also focused on Russia’s increased military build-up on the border with Ukraine, discussions that resulted in a warning of “massive consequences” if Moscow attacked Kyiv. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the discussions on China covered a “range of issues and challenges”, including Hong Kong and Xinjiang, where Beijing is respectively accused of trampling democratic freedoms and launching a far-reaching crackdown on ethnic minority groups. The ministers also discussed Beijing’s actions in the East and South China seas and the “importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” and expressed their “concern about [China’s] coercive economic policies”, Truss, who chaired the meetings, said in a statement. Beijing hit back Dec 13 by calling the G7 discussion of China “interference in its domestic affairs” and “vilification of China’s image”. Click here to read…

Caution on carbon as ‘China realises key role of coal’ in energy mix

Addressing a forum in Beijing on Dec 11, former finance minister Lou Jiwei said that while China had said it would “strive to” reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, there was a difference between this and “ensuring [those targets would be achieved]”. “We are a developing country. We should bear common but differentiated responsibilities that are different from developed countries,” Lou told the gathering organised by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges. Top economic policymakers led by President Xi Jinping and the Politburo, met during the week for the central economic work conference to review Beijing’s economic work over the last year and to set the tone for the country’s path in the year ahead. In a statement released on Dec 10, the officials said: “Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals require unwavering efforts but it can’t be achieved in just one battle.” According to the statement, fossil fuels should be phased out “based on” safe and reliable alternative sources of energy. China should also make clean and efficient use of coal, given the fuel’s dominant role in the country’s power generation and consumption, it said. Click here to read…

China goes after monopolies, promotes budget housing

China on Dec 10 vowed to beef up anti-monopoly regulations and expedite construction of affordable homes among a slew of economic measures designed to prop up economic stability in the coming year.In a statement released by Xinhua, the state news organization, the government warned of a “more complex, grim and uncertain” external economic environment amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. “While recognizing our achievements, we should be aware of the triple pressures in the form of weaker demand, supply-chain interruptions and faltering outlook,” said the report summarizing a three-day Central Economic Work Conference that ended on Dec 10. Led by President Xi Jinping, the annual conference outlined policy directions for economic development in the coming year. Dec 10’s statement underscores government efforts to cushion an economic slowdown. China’s growth is expected to slow to 5.3% in 2022, from 8% this year, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, an official think tank, said on Dec 13. Click here to read…

Ties that bind Kazakhstan to China are starting to unravel

When President Xi Jinping launched China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, he chose to do it in the Kazakhstan capital of Astana, where the concept of connectivity with China has been playing out for years. Since then, Astana has changed its name to Nursultan, and Kazakhstan’s view on its connections to China is not as rosy as they were when the Silk Road Economic Belt was launched. Nearly a decade later, Kazakhstan is finding binding itself tightly to Beijing comes with as many problems as benefits.In mid-November, Kazakh authorities reported that the water level in Lake Balkhash will fall to a critical point by 2040 unless something urgent is done, in particular at the consumer end of the river Ile in China. Kazakh authorities are developing plans, but most of them involve requiring China to curb its water consumption. Shrinking aquifers are not a new problem, but it has a growing urgency. This is not the only waterway that Kazakhstan has problems with. Its shared rivers with Russia and Uzbekistan also suffer from similar problems, but the Chinese water consumption is causing the drying up of a critical lake. But while too much Kazakh water is flowing into China, not enough Kazakh goods are. According to Kazakh data, between January and September 2021, food exports to China dropped 78%.Click here to read…

Israel heads ‘hack simulation’ on global financial markets

Israel has taken point on a 10-country exercise which simulated a crippling cyber-attack on financial markets around the world, attempting to create a realistic scenario of the panic and chaos that would ensue, Reuters reported. Dubbed ‘Collective Strength’ and carried out on Dec 09, the international cyber drill was conducted alongside the United States, Britain, Germany, Italy, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries, as well as major financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, according to the outlet. Treasury officials from the participating nations were shown a film to outline the simulated events, in which a narrator states that sensitive data was stolen and shared on the Dark Web, “creating havoc in the financial markets” over a period of 10 days. The exercise – reportedly dubbed a “war game” by the Israeli Finance Ministry – ran through a number of different kinds of attacks, including breaches that affected foreign exchange and bond markets, liquidity and the security of data shared between exporters and importers around the world. It also examined the impact of misleading news reports on the would-be crisis, as well as what steps governments would be expected to take. Click here to read…

US Space Force holds war game to test satellite network under attack

The United States is testing satellite resiliency to threats from China and Russia miles above the earth’s surface, just weeks after Russia shot down an aging communications satellite.The computer-aided simulations included potential shooting down of U.S. missile-tracking satellites, satellite jamming, and other electronic warfare “effects” that are possible tactics in space warfare. Actual satellites are not used. During a visit to Schriever Space Force Base in Colorado, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks saw the ‘Space Flag’ simulated space training exercise hosted by U.S. forces. It was the thirteenth such exercise, and the third to involve partners such as Britain, Canada and Australia. Pentagon leaders are touring U.S. bases this week while the Biden administration’s draft 2023 budget takes shape. The Department of Defense hopes to move budget dollars toward a military that can deter China and Russia. The 10-day-long space war game attempts to simulate the cutting edge of the U.S. capability in space. The training exercise involved an adversarial group working to simulate an aggressor nation with space capabilities like Russia or China. Satellites are vital to military communications, global positioning navigation, and timing systems that are needed in the event of war. Click here to read…

China plays down Lithuania rift as Belt and Road Initiative investments rise in Central, Eastern Europe

China has shrugged off the trade implications of souring diplomatic ties with Lithuania and pressure from the United States, as a senior economic official pointed to strong engagement with Central and Eastern Europe. “Although Lithuania has jumped out and sent a token of loyalty to the US, countries such as Croatia, Serbia and Hungary … they continue to proactively get closer with us without caring about [pressure from] the US,” said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency.China’s relations with Lithuania have dramatically cooled down this year after the Baltic state pulled out of the China-led 17+1 mechanism with Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations earlier this year. And last month, Beijing formally downgraded its diplomatic relations with Vilnius after it allowed Taipei to open a de facto embassy. Subsequently, Lithuanian exporters reported earlier this month that they were unable to send shipments to China, citing technical problems. Four days later, they had again been granted access to the Chinese market, but Lithuania’s largest trade body warned that cargos to and from the European Union member country still faced extended procedures and delays. Click here to read…

South Korea joins China, Taiwan in bid for CPTPP entry, but concerns remain over Japan’s stance

South Korea is seeking to join the 11-member CPTPP trade pact citing “fast changes to the economic order in the Asia-Pacific region”, raising questions about whether its tense relations with Japan, the largest economic power in the bloc, will get in the way. “South Korea will initiate the relevant procedures based on discussions with various interested parties to push the membership of the CPTPP,” Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki said on Dec 13 at a policy meeting in Seoul. Originally meant to be for Asia-Pacific nations, the CPTPP has been gaining significance as a global agreement, recently attracting interest from Britain as well as mainland China and Taiwan. The pact links Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru and Singapore. China and Taiwan’s applications to join the trade bloc came after the US, Australia and Britain struck a security alliance which includes an agreement to help Canberra secure a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. In 2019, the 11 economies imported a combined US$126 billion of South Korean goods, which corresponded to 23.2 per cent of the country’s total exports that year. They also sold US$124.9 billion of goods and services to South Korea, accounting for 24.8 per cent of its imports in 2019. Click here to read…

South Korea, Australia sign $930m deal to build howitzer plant

South Korea and Australia on Dec 13 signed a $930 million deal to build a howitzer factory in Geelong, Victoria, that will supply 30 self-propelled howitzers to Canberra, paving the way for defense cooperation between the two countries in the Indo-Pacific region as China continues to expand its military presence. Hanwha Defence’s Australian unit agreed with the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group to build a production base in Geelong by 2040 to supply K-9 Thunder howitzers and 15 ammunition carriers. To date, Hanwha has supplied about 600 K-9 howitzers to six countries. The signing ceremony was part of a summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Moon is the first foreign leader to visit Australia since the COVID-19 pandemic struck. Morrison also welcomed the deal, saying it will help develop Australia’s defense industry and create 300 jobs in the region, and praised South Korea’s willingness to transfer defense technology to the country. The announcement comes as an arms race heats up in Asia. Click here to read…

Arms Sales Unaffected by Pandemic

The pandemic doesn’t seem to have affected the global demand for weapons, according to a new report, which reveals the defense industry’s top 100 companies made $531 billion in 2020 – 1.3% more than in the previous year. Arms sales have been steadily growing for six consecutive years, and the economic hurdles caused by Covid-19 couldn’t reverse this trend, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) pointed out on Dec 06. “The industry giants were largely shielded by sustained government demand for military goods and services,” with some countries even accelerating payments to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, Alexandra Marksteiner from SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program said. The US maintained its lead in the sector in 2020. The total earnings of US arms manufacturers last year reached $285 billion, growing by 1.9% compared to 2019. Chinese firms took second place, with total earnings of $66.8 billion, or 13% of the global arms sales in 2020. SIPRI attributed this success to Beijing’s military modernization program, which turned the local defense companies into “some of the most advanced military technology producers in the world.” The downward trend that began in 2018 continued for Russian arms manufacturers last year, the report claimed. Click here to read…

U.S. consumer prices post biggest annual gain since 1982

U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in November as Americans paid more for food and a range goods, leading to the largest annual gain since 1982, posing a political nightmare for President Joe Biden’s administration and cementing expectations for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates next year. The report from the Labour Department on Dec 10, which followed on the heels of a slew of data this month showing a rapidly tightening labour market, makes it likely the U.S. central bank will announce that it is speeding up the wind-down of its massive bond purchases at its policy meeting next week. With supply bottlenecks showing little sign of easing and companies raising wages as they compete for scarce workers, high inflation could persist well into 2022. The increased cost of living, the result of shortages caused by the relentless COVID-19 pandemic, is hurting Biden’s approval rating. The White House and the Fed have characterized high inflation this year as transitory. Rising inflation is eroding wage gains. Inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings fell 1.9% on a year-on-year basis in November. Biden acknowledged the increased burden on household budgets from the high inflation, while trying to reassure Americans that the country was pushing ahead with efforts to ease supply bottlenecks. Click here to read…

As Turkey’s Currency Collapses, Erdogan’s Support Sinks Even in His Hometown

Tea farmers of the Black Sea coast town of Rize have been hit hard by the falling lira and soaring inflation. ‘We are at the bottom of the well.’ Turkey’s economic troubles are largely the result of Mr. Erdogan’s own policies, economists say. After firing a series of top officials who disagreed with him, the president has pressured the central bank into cutting interest rates despite high inflation; part of an unorthodox strategy he says is designed to encourage exports and economic growth. The situation worsened Dec 13 when the lira plunged to a record low during an investor selloff triggered by comments from Turkey’s finance minister that raised concerns that the central bank could cut interest rates again when it meets on Dec. 16. The central bank then intervened to arrest the lira’s slide, selling foreign currency for the fourth time in recent weeks.Central banks normally raise interest rates to control inflation. In Turkey, inflation stood at more than 21% in November according to official figures. Mr. Erdogan’s strategy has also sparked a dizzying slide in the lira, which lost some 30% of its value in November alone. Click here to read…

Strategic

Biden rules out U.S. troops in Ukraine as Putin masses forces

U.S. President Joe Biden said Dec 08 that sending American troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades is “not on the table,” underscoring Washington’s limited deterrence options against Moscow. This followed Dec 07’s virtual summit between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Biden said he told Putin there would be “economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen” in response to an invasion. The two-hour meeting came as Russia masses tens of thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine, in what the U.S. and Europe fear could herald another invasion like that which preceded the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Moscow looks to leverage this position to force Washington, Ukraine’s most prominent backer, to accept its conditions — binding pledges that NATO will not expand further eastward and that no offensive weapons systems will be deployed in countries neighbouring Russia. These demands are unacceptable to the U.S. and Europe. The Biden administration has previously warned of severe economic consequences if Russia invades Ukraine, and U.S. media reports indicate that blocking Russia from the SWIFT financial payments system used by banks worldwide is on the table. Click here to read…

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

Russia said on Dec 13 it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO’s plans to do the same. The warning from Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov raised the risk of a new arms build-up on the continent, with East-West tensions at their worst since the Cold War ended three decades ago. Ryabkov said Russia would be forced to act if the West declined to join it in a moratorium on intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) in Europe – part of a package of security guarantees it is seeking as the price for defusing the crisis over Ukraine. Lack of progress towards a political and diplomatic solution would lead Russia to respond in a military way, with military technology, Ryabkov told Russia’s RIA news agency. “That is, it will be a confrontation, this will be the next round,” he said, referring to the potential deployment of the missiles by Russia. Intermediate-range nuclear weapons – those with a range of 500 to 5,500 km (310 to 3,400 miles) – were banned in Europe under a 1987 treaty between then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. Washington withdrew from the pact in 2019. Click here to read…

Macron lays out agenda for ‘powerful, sovereign’ EU

President Emmanuel Macron vowed on Dec 9 France would work towards a strong and “sovereign” European Union when it takes over the bloc’s rotating presidency that coincides with France’s presidential election. Macron, a centrist who portrays himself as a champion of democracy against populism, may aim to use the six-month EU mandate to fill the gap in European leadership left by the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel, analysts say. But the president, who was elected in 2017 demanding reform in both France and Europe, will also face a battle to be re-elected in April although he remains the clear favourite for now. France’s aim is “to move towards a Europe that is powerful in the world, fully sovereign, free in its choices and in charge of its own destiny”, Macron said at a rare sit-down meeting with media in Paris that lasted more than three hours. “Faced with all these crises that are hitting Europe, many people would like to rely only on the nation state. These nations are our strength, our pride, but European unity is their indispensable complement,” he said. He called for new mechanisms to protect the EU’s borders, with thousands of migrants gathering on the border between Belarus and Poland in recent months. Click here to read…

At democracy summit, Biden says world faces battle against autocracy

Democracies need champions, said U.S. President Joe Biden as he opened up the first ever Summit for Democracy on Dec 09, bringing together political leaders and civil society actors from over 100 countries. The gathering is “not to assert that any one of our democracies is perfect or has all the answers, but to lock arms and reaffirm our shared commitment to make our democracies better,” and to push back on authoritarianism, Biden said. The framing fits with the president’s overall foreign policy, of uniting like-minded nations to create a position of strength to stand up to rivals such as China and Russia. But Biden was quick to acknowledge that the U.S. itself faces mounting challenges to its democracy. The summit has been criticized for its list of invitees, many of whom are not classified as democracies according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Some invitees, like Iraq and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are even considered authoritarian regimes by the metric. Pakistan, perhaps the most criticized recipient of an invite, declined to attend the conference. It is widely believed that Pakistan was uncomfortable that China, with which it has close ties, was not invited, while Taiwan was. Click here to read…

Taiwanese minister’s map disappears during US democracy summit

A slide show by a Taiwanese minister caused consternation among US officials during President Joe Biden’s democracy summit on Dec 10, when it included a map showing the self-ruled island in a different colour to the Chinese mainland. Taiwanese Digital Minister Audrey Tang’s video feed was cut during a panel discussion on “countering digital authoritarianism” and replaced with audio only, at the behest of the White House, according to sources familiar with the matter. The White House offered no formal comment, but the State Department said “confusion” over screen-sharing resulted in Tang’s video feed being dropped, calling it an “honest mistake”. The sources, who asked not to be identified because of the issue’s sensitivity, said the White House was concerned that differentiating between Taiwan and China on a map during a US-hosted conference could be seen to be at odds with Washington’s one-China policy. Tang’s presentation included a colour-coded map from South African NGO Civicus, ranking the world by openness on civil rights. Most of Asia was shown, with Taiwan coloured green, making it the only regional entity portrayed as “open,” while all the others – including several US allies and partners – were labelled as “closed,” “repressed,” “obstructed” or “narrowed”. Click here to read…

Taiwan loses diplomatic ally Nicaragua to China

Taiwan lost Nicaragua as a diplomatic ally after the Central American country said it would officially recognize only China, which claims self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory. “There is only one China,” the Nicaraguan government said in a statement Dec 09 announcing the change. “The People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that represents all China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory.” “As of today, Nicaragua breaks its diplomatic relations with Taiwan and ceases to have any official contact or relationship,” it added. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed “sadness and regret” and said it would immediately recall its diplomatic staff. The move leaves Taiwan with 14 countries globally that officially recognize it. China has been poaching Taiwan’s diplomatic allies over the past few years, cutting down the number of countries that recognize the democratic, self-governed island as a sovereign nation. China is against Taiwan representing itself in global forums or in diplomacy.The Nicaraguan government signed an official communique to re-establish diplomatic ties with China in Tianjin on Dec 10, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. Under the agreement, Nicaragua promises not to have any official contact with Taiwan going forward. Click here to read…

US seeks closer ties with ‘key player’ Indonesia as Blinken set to make Indo-Pacific speech

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Dec 13 arrived in Indonesia as part of his first Southeast Asia tour, meeting President Joko Widodo in Jakarta, where he pledged to increase economic ties with Indonesia, particularly in investments and infrastructure development. Blinken will deliver a speech about Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy on Dec 14, including its plans for deeper engagement with the 10-member Asean bloc. After meeting key Indonesian officials, he will head to Malaysia and Thailand later in the week. The Biden administration has yet to elaborate on its vision for stronger economic engagement with the region, although the top US diplomat for Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, said recently there would be a focus on trade facilitation, the digital economy, supply chain resilience, infrastructure, and clean energy and worker standards. Blinken is the latest in a string of senior US officials who have travelled to Southeast Asia in recent months, as the region shapes up to be a battleground in the US and China’s ongoing competition for influence. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondosaid that her trip to Asia last month was designed to “assess appetite” for economic dialogueClick here to read…

Australia drops European helicopters for U.S. Black Hawks

Australia’s military said Dec 10 it plans to ditch its fleet of European-designed Taipan helicopters and instead buy U.S. Black Hawks and Seahawks because the American machines are more reliable.The move comes less than three months after Australia cancelled a deal to buy French submarines in favour of building nuclear-powered submarines that use U.S. and British technology in a switch that deeply angered France. Australia has 47 Taipan helicopters that were designed by Airbus and were supposed to last until 2037 but have been plagued with groundings. Australia will stop using them and buy 40 Lockheed Martin-designed helicopters in a switch that will cost 7 billion Australian dollars ($4.8 billion). Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia was improving its defense capabilities and had built good partnerships, particularly with the U.S.Defense Minister Peter Dutton said the Black Hawks are much cheaper to fly and that officials have had concerns about the Taipan program for the past decade. He said the new helicopters would bring Australia’s fleet more in line with that of the U.S., an important consideration given the instability in the region. Click here to read…

Germany’s new government is set to take a tougher line on China

One of the most pressing questions for Olaf Scholz, Germany’s newly elected chancellor, is the extent to which he shifts Europe’s largest economy away from China. With Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party entering a coalition with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party, the new government is likely to be less cozy with Beijing than its predecessor under Angela Merkel.During her 16-year chancellorship, Merkel shied away from outright confrontation with Beijing. This was partly due to business ties — one out of three German cars are sold in China, and Germany is China’s most important partner in the European Union, with an annual mutual trading value of 212.9 billion euros (about $250 billion). Chinese leader Xi Jinping was the first foreign leader to congratulate Scholz, according to Germany’s public-broadcasting radio station Deutschlandfunk, but the coalition agreement points to several potential points of friction between Berlin and Beijing. The coalition agreement names China a dozen times, using terms such as “system rivalry,” “human rights,” and “fair rules of the game.” The document also calls for the international participation of “democratic Taiwan,” points to human rights violations in Xinjiang, and demands a restoration of the “one country, two systems” policy in Hong Kong. Click here to read…

New satellite images, expert suggest Iran space launch coming

Iran appears to be preparing for a space launch as negotiations continue in Vienna over its tattered nuclear deal with world powers, according to an expert and satellite images.The likely blast-off at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport comes as Iranian state media has offered a list of upcoming planned satellite launches in the works for the Islamic Republic’s civilian space programme, which has been beset by a series of failed launches. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard runs its own parallel programme that successfully put a satellite into orbit last year. Conducting a launch amid the Vienna talks fits the hard-line posture struck by Tehran’s negotiators, who already described six previous rounds of diplomacy as a “draft”, exasperating Western nations. Germany’s new foreign minister has gone as far as to warn that “time is running out for us at this point”. But all this fits into a renewed focus on space by Iran’s hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who studies Tehran’s programme. Satellite images taken Dec 11 by Planet Labs obtained by Associated Press show activity at the spaceport in the desert plains of Iran’s rural Semnan province some 240km (150 miles) southeast of Tehran. Click here to read…

Israel preparing military option against Iran – media

Israel’s military is preparing a possible strike against Iran, the country’s media has reported, citing defense and diplomatic sources. Tel Aviv has already notified the US of its plans, facing “no veto” on such preparations. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about preparations for a potential military strike against the country’s arch-nemesis Iran during his visit to the US, multiple Israeli outlets reported on Dec 11. Gantz met top US officials, including Lloyd and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on Thursday. “The defence minister told Americans that he had instructed the military to prepare for military option,” a senior security source said, as quoted by Israel’s Army Radio. The same source claimed that while Tehran was “close to producing enough fissile material for a single nuclear bomb,” it would not push through the “threshold” because it understands the gravity of such a step. While Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of seeking to obtain nuclear weaponry, Tehran has consistently rejected such allegations, maintaining that its nuclear program served solely civilian purposes. A separate diplomatic source told Israeli media that the announcement did not meet any objections from the American officials. Click here to read…

New friends – UAE de facto ruler, Israel’s Bennett in “historic” meeting

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan hosted Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Dec 13 in the first-ever public meeting between the United Arab Emirates’ de facto ruler and an Israeli leader. Israel’s ambassador to Abu Dhabi, speaking ahead of the meeting, said the issue of Iran would “certainly come up”. The meeting follows the formalisation of Israel-UAE relations last year under a U.S.-led regional initiative. While shared concern about Iranian activity was among reasons for the diplomatic moves, the UAE has also been trying to improve relations with Tehran. Releasing photographs of Bennett and Sheikh Mohammed smiling and shaking hands, the Israeli leader’s office described the meeting as “historic”. Before he flew home later in the day, Bennett’s office said in a statement that Sheikh Mohammed had accepted an invitation to visit Israel. There was no immediate confirmation from UAE officials. A statement on state news agency WAM said Sheikh Mohammed voiced hope for “stability in the Middle East” and that Bennett’s visit would “advance the relationship of cooperation towards more positive steps in the interests of the people of the two nations and of the region”.Click here to read…

Russian, Iranian FMs support original version of Iran nuclear deal

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held a phone conversation on Dec 13 to discuss the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The top diplomats reaffirmed their common position to restore the nuclear deal in its original balanced text, approved by the United Nations Security Council, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. They stressed that this is the only correct way to ensure the rights and interests of all participants in the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Multilateral negotiations to save the Iran nuclear deal resumed on Nov. 29 in Vienna of Austria. Click here to read…

Bangladesh protests US sanctions of its security chiefs

Bangladesh on Dec 11 called in the US ambassador to protest sanctions by Washington against its top security officers after seven people including the country’s national police chief were accused by the Joe Biden administration of human rights abuses. Washington imposed sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion, which is accused of involvement in hundreds of disappearances and nearly 600 extrajudicial killings since 2018. Seven current or former officials of the Rapid Action Battalion were also sanctioned. They include Benazir Ahmed, previously the RAB chief and currently the national head of the South Asian country’s more than 200,000-strong police force. “We are determined to put human rights at the centre of our foreign policy, and we reaffirm this commitment by using appropriate tools and authorities to draw attention to and promote accountability for human rights violations and abuses,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Bangladesh officials were quick to denounce the move, with foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen summoning the US ambassador “to convey Dhaka’s discontent” over the decision, his ministry said. Click here to read…

Medical
China further lowers nucleic acid test prices amid new COVID-19 cases

A number of Chinese cities have lowered the prices of COVID-19 nucleic acid tests at public hospitals, while some plan to do so soon, as part of Chinese authorities’ efforts to guide prices to a more affordable range amid a new wave of cases in some places. Starting from Dec 10, the cities of Luoyang and Jiyuan in Central China’s Henan Province will cut the price to 30 yuan ($4.73) a person for a single test and the price for a group will be lowered to 10 yuan per person, from 15 yuan. Cities in South China’s Hainan Province, Southwest China’s Sichuan Province and North China’s Tianjin Municipality have also reduced prices. This is not the first time that local health authorities have cut testing prices, to help reduce costs for residents. In mid-November, China’s National Healthcare Security Administration launched a third round of national price adjustments, requiring local authorities to reduce prices in public hospitals by December 15. After the adjustment, the price shall not exceed 40 yuan per person for a single test or 10 yuan a person for group tests. Massive nucleic acid testing is a key tool to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Click here to read…

South Korea to test AI-powered facial recognition to track COVID-19 cases

South Korea will soon roll out a pilot project to use artificial intelligence, facial recognition and thousands of CCTV cameras to track the movement of people infected with the coronavirus, despite concerns about the invasion of privacy. The nationally funded project in Bucheon, one of the country’s most densely populated cities on the outskirts of Seoul, is due to become operational in January, a city official told Reuters. The system uses a AI algorithms and facial recognition technology to analyse footage gathered by more than 10,820 CCTV cameras and track an infected person’s movements, anyone they had close contact with, and whether they were wearing a mask, according to a 110-page business plan from the city submitted to the Ministry of Science and ICT (Information and Communications Technology), and provided to Reuters by a parliamentary lawmaker critical of the project.Governments around the world have turned to new technologies and expanded legal powers to try to stem the tide of COVID-19 infections. South Korea already has an aggressive, high-tech contact tracing system that harvests credit card records, cellphone location data and CCTV footage, among other personal information. Click here to read…

US COVID-19 deaths approach 800,000 as Delta ravaged in 2021

The United States on Dec 12 reached 800,000 coronavirus-related deaths, according to a Reuters tally, as the nation braces for a potential surge in infections due to more time spent indoors with colder weather and the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the virus. The milestone means the US death toll from this one virus now exceeds the entire population of North Dakota.Even with vaccines widely and freely available, the country has lost more lives to the virus this year than in 2020 due to the more contagious Delta variant and people refusing to get inoculated against COVID-19. Since the start of the year, over 450,000 people in the United States have died after contracting COVID-19, or 57 per cent of all US deaths from the illness since the pandemic started.The deaths this year were mostly in unvaccinated patients, health experts say. Deaths have increased despite advances in caring for COVID-19 patients and new treatment options such as monoclonal antibodies. It took 111 days for US deaths to jump from 600,000 to 700,000, according to Reuters analysis. The next 100,000 deaths took just 73 days. Click here to read…

India’s Serum Institute let Africa down on vaccines: Africa CDC

The Serum Institute of India, the world’s biggest vaccine maker, let Africa down by pulling out of talks to supply COVID-19 vaccines, creating distrust that has affected demand, according to the head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control. John Nkengasong on Dec 09 denounced recent comments from Serum that uptake of its COVID-19 shots had slowed because of low demand from Africa and vaccine hesitancy, saying the real problem was that Serum had acted unprofessionally. Nkengasong said Serum had engaged in discussions last year with the Africa Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT), and that at one point he had believed a deal was very close, but then Serum abruptly ended the talks. “Serum just decided to act in a very unprofessional manner and stop communicating with AVATT team, so that created a situation where we found ourselves extremely unhappy … and then engaged with Johnson & Johnson,” he said. African countries had agreed to buy 400 million doses of COVID vaccines from J&J, abandoning efforts with Serum, he saidClick here to read…

West Asia Round Up – November 2021

Abstract :

West Asia, during the month, witnessed enhanced intra regional interactions and efforts for rapprochement. UAE took the lead as its Foreign Minister visited Damascus to upgrade the ties and to bring Syria back into the Arab fold. UAE FM also spoke to his Iranian counterpart and welcomed the Iranian Dy. FM and negotiator on nuclear talks in Abu Dhabi. More interactions to follow as UAE agreed to build some power plants and other infra developments in Iran. USA is somewhat miffed as both Syria and Iran fall in the ambit of its sanctions. However, in Bahrain Secretary of Defence tried to assuage the concerns of Arab allies and to assure them that for the US, security of the region was paramount. As for Afghanistan, Washington decided to open its mission in Qatar embassy in Kabul as Saudi Arabia opened its consulate and UAE expressed interest to help run the Kabul airport as all of them continued to provide humanitarian assistance to alleviate the civil strife. Turkey’s FM visited Tehran to work on a visit of President Erdogan. Importantly, UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan made his first high level visit to Ankara and held discussions with President Erdogan creating scope for cooperation sidestepping the rivalry and competition. A $ 10 billion investment fund was also announced for strategic investments in Turkey. Carrying on with its political, socio-legal and economic reforms UAE decided to introduce Civil law over Muslim personal law for the foreigners and expatriates giving a big relief. UAE has also been designated to host COP 28 in 2023. Omani Sultan visited Doha and met Qatari Emir to strengthen bilateral and regional mechanisms. Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz visited Rabat and signed a security cooperation agreement as Morocco and Algeria remain in a state of conflict.

In Sudan after the military coup and under the international pressure PM Hamdok was reinstalled but the public protests continued.

Indirect JCPOA talks between Iran and the US were resumed on Nov 29 amidst threatening statements on both sides the Europeans and Americans warning Tehran that time was running out as Iranians wanted all sanctions to be lifted and guarantees be given for the continuity of the deal even if there was a change in political dispensation in Washington which is a non starter. Russia and China maintained that the two sides should return to the existing JCPOA agreement.

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar held talks with H.E. Dr. Nayef Falah Mubarak Al-Hajraf, Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), who was on his first official visit to India on November 10-11. They exchanged views on regional and international issues of mutual concern. EAM congratulated Secretary General for the constructive role played by GCC in promoting stability and prosperity in the region. Both sides decided to convene the next India-GCC Troika Political Dialogue at an early date. The last round of the Dialogue was held virtually in November 2020. Both sides also agreed to further institutionalize the annual meetings between EAM and GCC Troika by signing an MOU in the coming months.

More details …….
Protests in Iraq

Iraq witnessed weeks of demonstrations against the result of the parliamentary election held in October 2021. The election witnessed one of the lowest turnouts. Prominent Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr’s political bloc, the Sairoon alliance won 73 seats in the 329 member parliament. Pro-Iranian groups that suffered heavy losses in the election called the polls fraudulent. They threw stones that were responded with tear gas and fire in the air. Fateh Alliance, the political arm of Hashd al-Shaabi won only 15 seats as compared to 48 seats in the last election. The domestic situation continued to remain unstable including small scale clashes throughout the month.

On 7 November, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt after a drone filled with explosives struck his residence in the high-security green zone in Baghdad. Iraqi officials and military sources have speculated on the involvement of pro-Iranian groups behind the attack. It is however unlikely that Iran is directly involved in the attack that could adversely affect its trade and political ties with Iraq as well as intensify violence on its western border. Iraqis fear that the tension within the Shiite groups that dominate government, number of state institutions and paramilitary branches could escalate into a broader civil conflict in the near future.

New Political Agreement to Overturn the Coup in Sudan

Sudan’s military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan signed a political agreement with deposed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to restore civilian control of the government. The military leaders were facing intense domestic and international pressure after the government was dissolved and cabinet members were arrested on 25 October.

Sudanese public after months of protest succeeded in pressurising the military to oust the long time autocrat, Omar Al-Bashir in April 2019. The military with support from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt intended to retain political power. However, protests against military control forced General Al-Burhan to accommodate the civilian coalition facilitating the formation of a technocratic government during the transition period until 2023. The dynamics between the military and civilian component in the government has been uneasy. The military after the national election and appointment of a democratically elected government is supposed to leave political office in 2023. The military, therefore, is unwilling to concede political power. It has blamed the civilian government for domestic protests, economic shortages and disrupting the path of the revolution etc and therefore justified the October coup. The coup led to widespread criticism eventually forcing the military to undertake political agreement. The 14 point deal entails the release of all political prisoners. Civil groups have however expressed their displeasure about the peace deal that continues to place the military in the dominant position. In the recent future, the political battle is likely to continue between the military committed to preserving its predominant status and increasingly assertive civilian government.

UAE’s Rapprochement with Syria

The UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan visited Damascus and met with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on 9 November. It indicates a thaw in relations since 2011 protests in Syria that quickly engulfed into a civil war. The UAE sided with Syrian rebels to topple the Assad regime and remained a vocal opponent of the actions of the government forces. The Assad regime through help from Russia and Iran has managed to stabilise the state. The civil war has killed thousands of people and displaced millions living as refugees in West Asia and Europe. The economic challenges for the Syrian government have been aggravated. In a major departure from the UAE’s previous stance, the Foreign Minister expressed his government’s interest in preserving the security, stability and unity of Syria.

The visit is seen as an indication of regional efforts to overturn Syria’s diplomatic isolation that could help the country to overcome economic despair. Both leaders reportedly discussed boosting joint investments in key sectors. The UAE earlier in December 2018 reopened its embassy in Damascus and in March called for Syria’s re-entry into the Arab League.

Notably, the US has expressed its reservation against re-engaging with the Assad regime by the UAE. The US State Department Ned Price said that it would not support other states to normalise or upgrade their relations and rehabilitate Assad calling him a brutal dictator. Syria is one of the four states under the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. The US could therefore continue to hinder Syria’s efforts to re-integrate with the international trade network and comity of states.

UAE’s Dialogue with Iran

The UAE has adapted its foreign policy to the changing realities at the regional level. In the recent period, it has opened diplomatic engagement with Syria as well as reached out to regional rivals including Qatar, Turkey and Iran. The UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian held a telephonic conversation on 11 November. Both states called their relations traditional and positive. The Iranian leader called for resolving existing problems between both states. Iran has welcomed UAE’s reconciliation with Syria calling it a positive step in regional cooperation. Both sides agreed that global and regional cooperation should be established to solve environmental problems.

Following the phone call, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani visited the UAE on 23 November and met with the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Khalifa Shaheen and the diplomatic advisor to the Emirati President, Anwar Gargash. Both states talked about opening a new chapter. The UAE has called for collective diplomacy between Gulf States and Iran by taking measures to de-escalate tensions.

US Approves US$ 650 million Weapon Sales to Saudi Arabia

President Joe Biden in early November approved US$ 650 million worth sale of 280 air-to-air missiles and 596 LAU-128 Missile Rail Launchers (MRLs). The US weapons firm, Raytheon is the principal contractor for the sale of AIM-120C-7/C-8 Advanced Medium Range Air to Air missiles and related equipment. Saudi Arabia has purchased a US$ 500 million helicopter maintenance deal in September. The US justified the sale suggesting that it would support US foreign policy and national security and help improve the security of a friendly state. Pentagon called Saudi Arabia an important force for political and economic progress in the region. The US-made missile deployed from Saudi aircraft has been crucial to intercept missiles and rockets and protect over 70,000 US citizens living in the kingdom.

The arms deal is the first sale to Saudi Arabia under Joe Biden. Biden as a presidential candidate was critical of Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen and the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The new administration has eventually adopted the policy of selling only defensive weapons to Saudi Arabia. Raytheon Technologies called the sale consistent with the government’s policy to lead with diplomacy to end conflict in Yemen. The sale does not require approval from the US Congress; however, lawmakers can block the deal by passing a disapproval bill in both houses. Critics within the US has dismissed Joe Biden administration’s claim to improve security. The deal has only benefitted the US defence industry.

Qatar to act as Diplomatic Proxy for the US

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on 12 November announced that its Gulf ally, Qatar will represent US interests in Afghanistan and help to process visas for people trying to flee Taliban control. Qatar under the new agreement would carry out a few diplomatic responsibilities including consular services and providing security of abandoned US facilities. Qatar for years has served as mediating ground for dialogue between the US and Taliban including the Doha Peace agreement. Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani stated that his country would continue to remain an instrument of peace and stability in the region. He mentioned engagement is the only way forward and abandoning Afghanistan is a big mistake. It has to be been what role Qatar would play provided that US officials have regularly met with Taliban figures post-August 2021 takeover.

CEO Designate of NSO firm Resigns

The CEO designate of Israeli spyware firm NSO, Isaac Benbenisti who joined the firm in August 2021 has offered his resignation on 11 November after the group was blacklisted by the US Department of Commerce. On 31 October, Benbenisti was named as the future replacement for Shalev Hulio, the co-founder and CEO of the NSO Group. Hulio has announced that he would remain in the current position due to the need for stability and continuity during the current period.

The firm’s spyware, Pegasus has been sold to foreign governments to spy on dissidents, journalists, diplomats etc. The company reportedly works after the approval of the Israeli Defence Ministry. The US placed NSO Group on the US blacklist in the first week of November after determining that the Israeli spyware has acted contrary to the foreign policy and national security interests of the US. The sanctions are intended to block NSO’s business operations in the US The firm has defended its spyware arguing that it is sold only to governments to target terrorists and other serious criminals.

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 22 November – 28 November 2021

Economic
Record 2.1m Chinese sit civil service exam as economy slows, youth jobless rate climbs

A record number of Chinese are sitting the national civil service examination this year, in hopes of landing a secure government job amid slowing growth and high youth unemployment. More than 2.12 million applicants registered for Nov 28’s exam, known as guokao in Mandarin, according to the state-owned China News Service. That is 35 per cent higher than last year’s 1.57 million, and the first time the number has crossed 2 million. That also gives applicants just a 1-in-68 chance of success, even though 31,200 government jobs are open at 75 central government agencies and 23 attached institutions. Successful candidates will take up their positions early next year. More than a million applicants have taken the exam every year since 2009. This year’s surge in numbers comes amid a slowdown in economic growth, caused in large part by the Covid-19 pandemic, and a persistently high youth jobless rate. And job security is now back on top of the government agenda. Last week, Premier Li Keqiang re-emphasised the focus on “ensuring security in employment, people’s livelihoods and market entities”, a government catchphrase not seen for a while but often used when it launches policies to support the economy – much required now as the country weathers the worst of the pandemic’s impact. Click here to read…

Biden’s Economic Plans Collide With Inflation Reality

President Biden took office with a raft of economic plans to better position the U.S. to compete on the world stage and jump-start a labor market ravaged by the pandemic. Ten months into his term, Mr. Biden is facing a new set of economic challenges. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell to a 52-year low last week, available jobs are trending near record highs and consumer spending is rising. But those positive economic developments have been complicated by supply-chain bottlenecks and the highest inflation in three decades. Now, Mr. Biden is racing to show the public that he is taking action to address rising prices and bottlenecks amid mounting anxiety among some of his advisers about political fallout heading into next year’s midterm elections. He has instructed his most senior economic advisers to focus on the issues, White House officials said, setting up an internal task force that is tracking granular data such as how many containers are sitting in the country’s ports and how long they have been there. Many economists are skeptical that efforts under way by the White House, including releasing petroleum reserves and prodding ports to operate longer hours, can meaningfully change the short-term path of inflation.Click here to read…

US-EU press on with plan to tackle ‘dirty’ Chinese steel flooding markets

China’s “unfair trade practices” are once again in US crosshairs, with Washington indicating it will use a new metals alliance with the European Union (EU) to prevent Chinese dumping amid uncertainty over the next phase of bilateral trade talks. In an op-ed published on Nov 28 in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo took aim at cheap Chinese metals flooding global markets, lowering prices for American manufacturers and leading to the loss of 16,000 steel jobs in the US between January 2015 and October 2016. To tackle the problem, the United States will begin negotiations with the EU to create “the world’s first carbon-based sectoral agreement on steel and aluminium trade.” “The United States produces some of the cleanest steel in the world, while China produces some of the dirtiest,” they said. Late last month, Brussels and Washington announced a new metals deal that US President Joe Biden said would “restrict access to our markets for dirty steel, from countries like China”. The agreement notably combined climate and trade policy, while ending a years-long trade dispute over steel and aluminium tariffs. But the latest criticism by two senior US officials comes at a critical point, with the phase one trade deal set to expire in about one monthClick here to read…

US-China tech war: Beijing’s efforts to catch up in advanced chips on hold as country’s attention turns to mature nodes

China has been forced to make a course correction in its drive for semiconductor self-reliance, focusing instead on boosting production of mature technologies while putting the goal of catching up with the world’s most advanced chip makers on the back burner, according to analysts and industry insiders. Despite strong political will from President Xi Jinping, generous financial support from the government, and the enthusiasm of domestic players, China is facing the harsh reality that its chances of becoming self-sufficient in advanced chips are remote. On the one hand, China is able to ease the supply shortage by boosting production of lower end chips used in automobiles and home appliances, but on the other, it has to rely on wafer fabs such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics for advanced chip manufacturing in the coming years, if not decades, even if China’s own IC design firms are able to design these high end chips. “In the leading edge, it is going to become more difficult for Chinese companies to catch up,” Gokul Hariharan, co-head of Asia-Pacific TMT Research at US investment bank J.P. Morgan, said in an interview with the South China Morning Post. However, he added that the market for older generation technology remains promising and Chinese companies have potential there. Click here to read…

U.S. puts Chinese firms helping military on trade blacklist

The U.S. government put a dozen Chinese companies on its trade blacklist on Nov 24 for national security and foreign policy concerns, citing in some cases their help developing the Chinese military’s quantum computing efforts. The government also said several entities and individuals from China and Pakistan were added to the Commerce Department’s Entity List for contributing to Pakistan’s nuclear activities or ballistic missile program. The latest U.S. action on Chinese companies comes amid growing tensions between Beijing and Washington over the status of Taiwan and trade issues. In total, 27 new entities were added to the list from China, Japan, Pakistan, and Singapore. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a statement that the new listings will help prevent U.S. technology from supporting the development of Chinese and Russian “military advancement and activities of non-proliferation concern like Pakistan’s unsafeguarded nuclear activities or ballistic missile program.” China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Commerce Department wants to stop the Chinese military from developing its counter-stealth technology, which could include equipment like advanced radars, and counter-submarine applications such as undersea sensors. Click here to read…

Property tax concerns for China’s homeowners, buyers amid Xi Jinping’s common prosperity drive

After China announced plans to roll out a nationwide property tax to help address wealth inequality, concerns were raised if it will become the last straw to break the back the beleaguered real estate sector and become a move that would deal a blow to the domestic economy that could trigger a domino effect worldwide. The policy will not take immediate effect and China will first carry out pilot schemes for the next five years in several selected cities. “We must actively and steadily push forward property tax legislation and reform, and carry out pilots well,” President Xi Jinping said in August when spelling out his vision to lead the Chinese people to so-called common prosperity, with property tax one of the few specific policies mentioned. After years of debates on the first recurring property tax, with only property transactions currently taxed in mainland China, a property tax law will be “promptly” drafted once the pilot schemes have been completed. Under the law, both residential and non-residential properties will be taxed based on their values, but rural households will be excluded. While no other details of the taxation plans have been revealed, the pre-announcement highlighted the determination of China’s top leadership to launch the nationwide property tax. Click here to read…

India, Israel aim to boost ties through defense tech and trade

India and Israel are pushing to strengthen ties by deepening cooperation in the fields of defense and information technology, as well as resuming long-stalled negotiations over a free trade agreement. That comes as New Delhi looks to access Israel’s advanced military technology and to indirectly reinforce its relationship with Washington, a close ally to Israel. In turn, Israel hopes to unlock huge new markets for its companies. The Defense Research and Development Organization of India and Israel’s Directorate of Defense Research and Development signed a bilateral agreement earlier this month to promote the development of technologies for both military and commercial use. Under the move, Indian and Israeli startups will work together on tech such as small, unmanned aircraft and artificial intelligence. That follows an October agreement between Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Yair Lapid aiming to complete a bilateral FTA by June 2022. Negotiations originally started in 2010 but have long been suspended. Now, for the first time, the two governments have specified a target date for concluding the deal. The bilateral FTA would enable the two countries to promote the development of IT-based technological innovations on top of India’s access to Israel’s advanced weaponry. Click here to read…

New omicron COVID variant throws wrench into pandemic recovery

Worries over the new coronavirus “variant of concern” have triggered a flight from risk in financial markets around the world as investors scramble to assess the implications for the global economic recovery and monetary policy. Following sell-offs in Asian and European stocks with the detection of the omicron variant, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Nov 26 fell 2.5% for its steepest decline of the year. Economically sensitive energy and financial stocks were particularly hard hit. Meanwhile, benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil futures dropped below $70 a barrel in New York for the first time in roughly two months, down by more than 10%. Investors sold off risk assets, from stocks and oil to cryptocurrencies, and streamed into the relative safe haven of U.S. Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to the 1.48% level at one point Nov 26 in the sharpest decline since March 2020 — when the initial wave of the pandemic threw markets into turmoil. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions. With economies reopening and earnings rebounding, investors had been pouring money into risk assets, sparking a global stock rally this yearClick here to read…

Sri Lanka awards port project to China after dropping Japan, India

Sri Lanka will tap a Chinese company for a port project in Colombo, its largest city, that had been awarded to Japan and India before the partnership was scrapped early this year. The decision highlights Colombo’s balancing act and comes a month after Indian conglomerate Adani Group was awarded another deal worth over $700 million to develop the West Container Terminal at the Colombo port. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has said he wants to be “neutral” in Sri Lanka’s relations with India and China as the nation struggles with a shortage of foreign currency. His cabinet on Nov 23 agreed to have state-run China Harbour Engineering develop the Eastern Container Terminal while stipulating that local authorities would handle all operations. It cited recommendations by a cabinet-appointed committee as the basis for the decision. The apparent pro-China tilt of Rajapaksa’s government is seen as a factor in the change of plans. Beijing has invested heavily in projects on the strategically positioned island under its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Sri Lanka had signed a memorandum of understanding with Japan and India in May 2019, under previous President Maithripala Sirisena, to jointly develop the Colombo terminal. Click here to read…

Turkey, UAE sign financial cooperation deals as ties warm

Turkey and the United Arab Emirates signed accords on energy and technology investments on Nov 24 after talks between President Tayyip Erdogan and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Ankara. Sheikh Mohammed’s meeting with Erdogan, the first such visit in years, comes as the two countries work to mend frayed ties after a period of bitter regional rivalry, and amid a currency crisis in Turkey. The memorandums of understanding were signed between the Abu Dhabi Development Holding (ADQ), Turkish Wealth Fund (TVF), and the Turkish Presidency Investment Office, as well as with some Turkish companies. The agreements highlight the pivot towards economic partnership after a battle for regional influence since the Arab uprisings erupted a decade ago. The disputes have extended to the eastern Mediterranean and Gulf, before Ankara launched a charm offensive in the region last year. ADQ signed an accord on investing in Turkish technology firms and on establishing a technology-oriented fund, while Abu Dhabi Ports also signed an agreement on port and logistics cooperation. The UAE announced it was establishing a $10bn fund to support mainly strategic investments in Turkey, including in the health and energy fields, its state news agency WAM said. Click here to read…

Strategic
U.S.-China defense talks: Biden seeks channel to Xi’s inner circle

Efforts to secure early talks between U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs show how both sides see a military channel as a bare minimum to avoid accidental confrontations. The U.S. and China are working to arrange a phone call or a virtual meeting of top defense officials, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, before the end of the year, multiple American officials have said. With Chinese President Xi Jinping tightening his grip on power, Austin will seek to build ties with officials at the Communist Party’s core who are close to the leader. “China attaches great importance to the development of relations between the two militaries and is willing to maintain exchanges and cooperation with the U.S.,” Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian told reporters Nov 25, suggesting Beijing is interested in the idea as well. Austin looks to meet with Xu Qiliang, vice chairman and Xi’s deputy in the Chinese Communist Party Central Military Commission. “Xu is essentially in charge of day-to-day operations of the People’s Liberation Army,” according to a source with knowledge of the PLA. The U.S. defense secretary in the past has frequently engaged with China’s defense minister. But the Communist Party, not the government, is behind key political and military decisions in ChinaClick here to read…

U.S. invitation of Taiwan to democracy summit angers China

The Biden administration has invited Taiwan to its Summit for Democracy next month, the State Department announced, prompting sharp criticism from China, which considers the self-ruled island as its territory. The summit makes good on a pledge President Joe Biden made during his campaign, and it reflects his emphasis on returning the U.S. to a global leadership position among world democracies. The event is aimed at gathering government, civil society and private sector leaders to work together on fighting authoritarianism and global corruption and defending human rights. The invitation list features 110 countries, including Taiwan, but does not include China or Russia. The inclusion of Taiwan comes as tensions between the U.S. and China have ramped up over America’s approach to the island nation. The United States’ “One China” policy recognizes Beijing as the government of China but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. The democracy summit invite list set off a new round of criticism from Beijing. “What the U.S. did proves that the so-called democracy is just a pretext and tool for it to pursue geopolitical goals, suppress other countries, divide the world, serve its own interest and maintain its hegemony in the world,” said Zhao Lijian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Click here to read…

Pentagon Plans to Improve Bases in Guam and Australia to Confront China

A Pentagon review of military resources world-wide plans improvements to bases in Guam and Australia to counter China but contains no major reshuffling of forces as the U.S. moves to take on Beijing while deterring Russia and fighting terrorism in the Middle East and Africa. Known as the global posture review, the assessment—whose results haven’t been previously reported—plans for improvements to the airfields and other infrastructure at U.S. bases in Guam and Australia, defense officials said. Force posture in the Middle East, Europe and Africa will continue to be analyzed, the official and others in the Pentagon said. Afghanistan underwent a separate interagency review, they said, and cyber and nuclear capabilities are also being reviewed under separate initiatives. A China-specific review, of which much of the results are classified, was completed earlier this year. Another senior defense official said that, despite expectations that it would result in strategic changes, the global posture review didn’t find a need for large adjustments. More changes may follow a new national-defense strategy due early next year, the official said. Click here to read…

Russia, China sign roadmap for closer military cooperation

Russia’s defense chief on Nov 23 signed a roadmap for closer military ties with China, pointing to increasingly frequent U.S. strategic bomber flights near both countries’ borders. During a video call, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe “expressed a shared interest in stepping up strategic military exercises and joint patrols by Russia and China,” according to the Russian Defense Ministry. “China and Russia have been strategic partners for many years,” Shoigu said. “Today, in conditions of increasing geopolitical turbulence and growing conflict potential in various parts of the world, the development of our interaction is especially relevant.” Shoigu pointed to increasingly intensive flights by the U.S. strategic bombers near Russian borders, saying that there were 30 such missions over the past month alone. “This month, during the U.S. Global Thunder strategic force exercise, 10 strategic bombers practiced the scenario of using nuclear weapons against Russia practically simultaneously from the western and eastern directions”. Wei praised Russia for successfully countering what he described as U.S. pressure and military threats. Shoigu and Wei hailed a series of maneuvers that involved Russian and Chinese warplanes and naval ships, and signed a plan for military cooperation for 2021-2025. Click here to read…

Meeting near Russian border, NATO weighs response to Moscow’s military maneuvers

Polish President Andrzej Duda has said the Belarus border issue and the Ukraine buildup cannot be seen separately. Duda visited NATO headquarters last week to ask for “strengthening of the air policing mission…strengthening of observation, surveillance and strengthening of the readiness of NATO units along the eastern flank of the alliance.” So the stakes are particularly high for the meeting of NATO foreign ministers starting on Nov 30, coincidentally taking place in Riga, Latvia. Speaking to the press on Nov 27, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pointed out it was “the second time this year that Russia has amassed large and unusual concentrations of forces in the region…heavy capabilities like tanks, artillery, armored units, drones and electronic warfare systems as well as combat-ready troops.” Stoltenberg said the move is “unprovoked and unexplained. It raises tensions and it risks miscalculations.” He also warned that “any use of force against Ukraine will have consequences [and] costs for Russia.” NATO is grappling with how to avoid such miscalculations, while making the costs appear high enough to get the Kremlin to back off. “All options are on the table and it’s now for the alliance to decide what are the next moves that NATO wants to take,” Karen Donfried, the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, told reporters on Nov 26. Click here to read…

Erdogan says Turkey ready to mediate between Ukraine and Russia – NTV

Turkey is ready to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, President Tayyip Erdogan was cited as saying by broadcaster NTV on Nov 29, despite having angered Moscow by selling armed drones to Kyiv earlier this year amid tensions in eastern Ukraine. U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have massed on the border of Ukraine, which is also battling Moscow-backed separatists who control part of its territory in the east. Ukraine’s military intelligence has said Moscow was preparing for an attack in early 2022. Russia has dismissed the comments as “malicious” U.S. propaganda. NATO member Turkey has good ties with both Kyiv and Moscow but opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya. It has forged close energy and defence cooperation with Russia but has also sold Turkish-made drones to Kyiv, angering Moscow. Speaking to reporters on a flight from Turkmenistan, Erdogan was cited as saying by NTV and other media Turkey wanted the Black Sea region to be in peace, adding he was discussing the issue with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin frequently. Asked about Erdogan’s offer, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment. Last month, Moscow said the Turkish drones risked having a destabilising impact. Click here to read…

Why wind tunnels are key in China’s race for hypersonic weapon supremacy

Development of China’s new-generation hypersonic weapons and aircraft is expected to get a boost with construction of a wind tunnel simulator to test vehicles and missiles at many times the speed of sound – with more such facilities in the pipeline. Recent announcements and tests involving vehicles and spacecraft suggest China has accelerated its hypersonic arms race with the United States as Beijing tries to gain a generation’s edge, according to defence experts. China, the US and Russia have been locked in a hypersonic technology competition. The term hypersonic relates to speeds between Mach 5 and 10, or five to 10 times the speed of sound. Hypersonic weapons glide and travel in a low orbit and are more manoeuvrable than conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles, making them harder to track and destroy by the US’s global missile-defence network. The Aerodynamics Research Institute (ARI), under the state-owned Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC), announced last weekend that the FL-64 – a one-metre-class hypersonic aerodynamic wind tunnel – had passed major calibration tests after two years of development. This indicated that it was ready to for testing hypersonic weapons and equipment. Click here to read…

US & UK to share classified submarine data with Australia under AUKUS

Washington, London, and Canberra have signed an agreement on the sharing of sensitive, classified submarine data as part of the AUKUS pact to arm Australia with nuclear-powered subs, reached by the sides in September. The newly-signed deal will allow the US and the UK to share nuclear propulsion information with Australia “which they cannot with any other country,” Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton announced on Nov 22. This exchange will help determine the “optimal pathway” for Canberra to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact, he said. Australia is currently in an 18-month period to examine the requirements for the delivery of the state-of-the-art hardware. The deal will also allow Australian servicemen to receive training from their American and British counterparts on properly building and operating nuclear-powered submarines. “This agreement will assist Australia to develop the necessary skills and knowledge to create a world-class regulatory and safety regime required for the safe operation of naval nuclear propulsion,” Dutton said. The Exchange of Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information Agreement now has to be reviewed by a committee in the Australian Parliament. Click here to read…

Italy, France to deepen ties as Merkel’s exit tests European diplomacy

The leaders of Italy and France will sign a treaty on Nov 26 to strengthen bilateral ties at a time when European diplomacy is being tested by the departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The Quirinale Treaty is aimed at enhancing cooperation between Paris and Rome in areas including defence, migration, the economy, culture and trade. The signing ceremony comes shortly after a new coalition pact was agreed in Germany, ending 16 years of rule by Merkel, who was the undisputed leader of Europe and forged especially close ties with successive French leaders. The new Berlin administration is expected to be more inward-looking, especially at the start of its mandate, and both Paris and Rome are keen to deepen relations in a period clouded by economic uncertainty, the pandemic, a more assertive Russia, a rising China and a more disengaged United States. “Macron’s intention is to create a new axis with Italy, while it is in Italy’s interest to hook up with the France-Germany duo,” said a senior Italian diplomatic source, who declined to be named. Click here to read…

Japan and Vietnam share concerns over China at summit

Leaders from Japan and Vietnam expressed “serious concern” over China’s drive to increase its clout in the East and South China seas at a summit in Tokyo on Nov 24. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his Vietnamese counterpart, Pham Minh Chinh, met to discuss areas of mutual interest and agreed that Japan will export more defense equipment, such as naval vessels, to Vietnam. Chinh is the first foreign leader to visit Japan since Kishida took office. This is also Kishida’s first in-person meeting with another head of state, other than at international conferences. At the summit, Kishida stressed that Vietnam is a “vital partner” in creating a free and open Indo-Pacific. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi visited Vietnam in September to attend the signing of an agreement on defense equipment exports. On Nov 23, Kishi also met with his Vietnamese counterpart, Gen. Phan Van Giang, to discuss expanding Japan’s exports of such equipment. Vietnam could receive naval vessels and related equipment from Japan, and the two countries also signed a military cooperation deal covering cybersecurity and medicine, such as for naval and air force officers, Vietnam’s state-controlled media reported. In 2017, Japan agreed to build six coast guard patrol boats for Vietnam in a $350 million dealClick here to read…

Kishida tells troops: Capacity to strike enemy bases is option

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Nov 27 vowed to strengthen his nation’s defense capabilities, citing threats stemming from North Korea and China. “The security environment surrounding Japan is changing at an unprecedented speed,” Kishida said in front of 800 troops at the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s Camp Asaka. “To strengthen defense capacity, we will not rule out options such as having enemy base strike capabilities,” Kishida said, adding that he had ordered a review of Japan’s Medium Term Defense Program as well as its national security and defense guidelines. North Korea’s recent tests of more advanced rockets have raised the possibility that Japan’s current missile defenses may be rendered ineffective, forcing policymakers to consider new options. They include the ability to attack the missile launch itself in enemy territory. Japan’s pacifist constitution only allows self-defense capabilities, ruling out preemptive strikes. The strikes being debated now would only be fired after it has been determined that Japan is being attacked. “We cannot overlook how North Korea has developed new technologies such as hypersonic weapons and trajectory-shifting missiles,” Kishida said. The prime minister also shared his concerns about China during a speech on a blustery morning at the camp, on the border between Tokyo and Saitama Prefecture. Click here to read…

Kyrgyz president’s allies poised to win in landslide

Allies of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov appeared set to win Nov 28’s parliamentary election by a landslide, according to early figures, further cementing his grip on the Central Asian nation with close ties to Russia and China. A Russian military airbase located in Kyrgyzstan allows Moscow to project power throughout the broader region and to locations such as Afghanistan. With ballots from more than 90% of polling stations counted, opposition party Butun Kyrgyzstan had received 6.8% of the vote, with the rest split between a host of pro-presidential parties. Japarov, 52, came to power during the turmoil that followed the October 2020 parliamentary elections, the results of which a number of political parties refused to accept. Freed from prison where he was serving a sentence for a political stunt that involved kidnapping a provincial governor, Japarov became prime minister within days and then successfully ran for president on a nationalist and populist platform. Japarov has maintained the former Soviet republic’s traditionally close ties with Russia and dismissed suggestions of allowing the United States to establish a military base in the country in addition to the existing Russian facility. This week the state security service headed by Japarov’s close ally said it had prevented a coup planned by a group of unnamed former senior officials and parliament members. Click here to read…

Gaddafi’s son blocked from Libya election

Libya’s election commission has disqualified 25 of the 98 candidates running for president, including Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the leader whose 2011 overthrow plunged the North African country into a decade-long civil war. Gaddafi had announced his candidacy on November 14 and looked like one of the front-runners in the contest, scheduled for December 24. On Nov 24, however, the election commission ruled him ineligible. It is a preliminary decision and can be appealed in court. A military prosecutor in Tripoli had urged the commission to disqualify Gaddafi on grounds of his 2015 conviction in absentia for war crimes related to the 2011 insurrection that overthrew his father. Muammar Gaddafi had ruled Libya for over 40 years before he was ousted and killed by NATO-backed rebels. Saif al-Islam was the chosen candidate of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Libya, a group of his father’s loyalists formally established in 2016. He also has a pending arrest warrant on behalf of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. Gaddafi reacted to the decision by pointing out that General Khalifa Haftar has two criminal convictions – a 1987 court-martial over his surrender to Chad, and a 1993 civilian conviction for plotting to overthrow the government – yet he has not been disqualified from running. Click here to read…

Those guilty of chemical attacks must be held accountable, says UN Chief

The perpetrators of chemical-weapon attacks must be identified and held accountable for their actions, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Nov 29. His comments came as he opened the second session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction. Currently, 60 percent of UN member states are covered by five nuclear weapon-free zones in Latin America and the Caribbean; the South Pacific; Southeast Asia; Africa; and Central Asia. Guterres said that expanding these zones would lead to more robust disarmament and non-proliferation norms. The second session of the annual conference, which was delayed by a year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, was presided over by Mansour Al-Otaibi, the permanent representative to the UN for Kuwait, which was chosen to inherit the presidency from Jordan after the first session in 2019. In line with a General Assembly decision, the goal of the conference is to “elaborate a legally binding treaty” to establish a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, on the basis of “arrangements freely arrived at by the states of the region.” Click here to read…

Iran Doubles Down on Demands as Nuclear Talks Resume

Iran made many demands as it resumed talks Nov 29 with the U.S. and other world powers aimed at salvaging the 2015 nuclear deal, doubling down on its position before negotiations first started in the spring and raising doubts over an early breakthrough. The talks, taking place in the Austrian capital amid a strict coronavirus lockdown, are intended to agree on the steps Iran and the U.S. will take to return into compliance with the 2015 deal, which lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for strict but temporary restrictions on Iran’s nuclear work. “The U.S. has no other way for its return to the JCPOA but to remove all the sanctions imposed on the Iranian nation since it walked out of the JCPOA,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, referring to the formal name of the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. He said the U.S. return to the deal would depend on “guarantees that Iran’s economic partners would be able to deal with Iran without worries and with confidence.” In a sign of the distance between the two sides over reaching an agreement, Iran continued to refuse to talk directly with the U.S. team. Click here to read…

Israel signals readiness to escalate Iran confrontation

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has signalled a readiness to step up Israel’s confrontation with Iran, reiterating on Nov 23, his country would not be bound by any new Iranian nuclear deal with world powers. Bennett, who took power in June, described Iran in a speech as being at “the most advanced stage of its nuclear programme”. While his government has previously said it would be open to a new nuclear deal with tougher restrictions on Iran, Bennett reasserted Israel’s autonomy to take action against its arch foe. “We face complicated times. It is possible that there will be disputes with the best of our friends,” he told a televised conference hosted by Reichman University. “In any event, even if there is a return to a deal, Israel is of course not a party to the deal and Israel is not obligated by the deal.” Bennett voiced frustration with what he described as Israel’s smaller-scale clashes with Iran’s militia allies”. “To chase the terrorist du jour sent by the [Iranian covert] Quds Force does not pay off anymore. We must go for the dispatcher.” Stopping short of explicitly threatening war, Bennett said cyber-technologies and what he deemed Israel’s advantages as a democracy and international support could be brought to bear. “Iran is much more vulnerable than is commonly thought,” he said. Click here to read…

World’s highest child soldier numbers in West, Central Africa

West and Central Africa is the region with the highest number of child soldiers in the world, as well as the most underage victims of sexual violence, according to a new report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). Since 2016, the region has been hit by growing conflict in which more than 21,000 children have been recruited by government forces and armed groups, the report said on Nov 23. In addition, more than 2,200 children have been verified as victims of sexual violence during the past five years, it added. Meanwhile, some 3,500 children have been abducted, making it the region with the second-highest abductions in the world, while there have been at least 1,500 attacks on schools and hospitals. Overall, the UN’s children agency said more than 57 million children in the region are in need of humanitarian assistance, a number that has doubled since last year as a result of conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic. “Whether children in West and Central Africa are the direct targets or collateral victims, they are caught up in conflict and face violence and insecurity,” said Marie-Pierre Poirier, UNICEF’s regional director for West and Central Africa. Click here to read…

Medical
COVID: What we know about the omicron variant

The new variant B.1.1.529, which the World Health Organization officially named omicron, was first discovered on November 11, 2021, in Botswana. That’s just north of South Africa. Since then, B.1.1.529 has also been found in South Africa. It’s mainly been diagnosed in the province of Gauteng, which includes Johannesburg and Pretoria. Scientists estimate that up to 90% of all new coronavirus cases in Gauteng may be linked to B.1.1.529. By Nov 29, there were 13 confirmed omicron cases in the Netherlands, and other cases outside of southern Africa, including in Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, France, Canada and Australia. Researchers are concerned about the new variant because they say it shows an “extremely” high number of mutations of the coronavirus. They have found 32 mutations in the spike protein. By comparison, the delta variant, which is considered highly infectious, shows eight mutations. While the number of mutations in the spike protein is not an exact indication of how dangerous a new variant is, it does suggest that the human immune system may find it harder to fight the new variant. There are indications that omicron can escape an immune response, leaving people at a greater risk. Click here to read…

Omicron variant: in slap at China, US praises South Africa’s detection of new Covid strain

The United States praised South Africa on Nov 27 for quickly identifying the new Covid strain called Omicron and sharing this information with the world – a barely veiled slap at China’s handling of the original outbreak of the novel coronavirus. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to South African International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor and they discussed cooperation on vaccinating people in Africa against Covid-19, the State Department said. “Secretary Blinken specifically praised South Africa’s scientists for the quick identification of the Omicron variant and South Africa’s government for its transparency in sharing this information, which should serve as a model for the world,” the statement said. In August of this year the US intelligence community released a report in which it said it could not reach a firm conclusion on the origins of the virus – among animals or in a research lab were top scenarios – because China had not helped in the US investigation. Washington has also accused Beijing of waiting too long before sharing crucial information about the outbreak, saying that a more transparent handling could have helped halt the spread of the virus. Click here to read…

China makes billion-dose pledge to Africa to help overcome the coronavirus pandemic

China has promised to donate a billion coronavirus vaccines, advance billions of dollars for African trade and infrastructure, and write off interest-free loans to African countries to help the continent heal from the coronavirus pandemic. Speaking via a video link from Beijing during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would supply a billion doses to help Africa vaccinate 60 per cent of its population by next year. Of those, 600 million would be via donations and the rest would be produced jointly by African countries and Chinese companies. In addition, China would send medical teams to help the continent deal with the pandemic, Xi said, to the forum, which is being hosted by Senegal. “China will undertake 10 medical and health projects for African countries and send 1,500 medical personnel to Africa,” Xi said. Most countries in Africa have not vaccinated their citizens. The World Health Organization says while many high-income countries reported more than 60 per cent vaccine coverage, just over 7 per cent of Africa’s population is fully vaccinated – despite a recent rise in shipments to the continent. Click here to read…

Big Pharma unveils its plans for Omicron strain

With the World Health Organization (WHO) designating Omicron the latest “variant of concern” following an emergency meeting on Nov 26, warning that the highly mutated strain could be more infectious than those seen before, Big Pharma quickly launched into PR-mode, as several firms rushed to outline how they would combat the new variant. “In the event that [a] vaccine-escape variant emerges, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days, subject to regulatory approval,” Pfizer announced, though it did not say whether any specific research had been conducted into Omicron so far. BioNTech, in a separate statement, noted that Omicron “differs significantly from previously observed variants as it has additional mutations located in the spike protein,” referring to the mechanism by which the coronavirus gains access to host cells and causes infection. The company also said that a so-called “escape variant” could “require an adjustment of our vaccine if the variant spreads globally.” Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, two other major Covid vaccine developers, issued similar missives on Nov 26, with the latter company stating that it’s already testing a booster shot for healthy adults that contains twice the vaccine dosage than what is currently approvedClick here to read…

West Asia Round Up – October 2021

Abstract:
Iran

At G20 on October 30 the leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the US reiterated their commitment to ensure that Iran can never develop nuclear weapons stating “We expressed our determination to ensure that Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon and shared our grave and growing concern that, while Iran halted negotiations on a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) since June, it has accelerated the pace of provocative nuclear steps, such as the production of highly enriched uranium and enriched uranium metal. Iran has no credible civilian need for either measure, but both are important to nuclear weapons programs,” while reiterating the importance of a negotiated solution to the current situation “that provides for the return of Iran and the US to full compliance with the JCPOA and provides the basis for continued diplomatic engagement to resolve remaining points of contention. We are convinced that it is possible to quickly reach and implement an understanding on return to full compliance and to ensure for the long term that Iran`s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes,” the statement read. They also asked President Raisi to seize this opportunity urgently as it was the only way to avert a dangerous escalation. European leaders have been intervening to resume the JCPOA talks.

As President Raisi confirmed his intent and date in November to return to Talks, FM Hossein Amirabdollahian urged ‘It is enough for Biden to issue an executive order tomorrow and they (US) announce they are rejoining the pact from the point where his predecessor left the deal. If there is a serious will in Washington to return to the deal, there is no need for all these negotiations at all’. Tehran has said its nuclear steps since Trump abandoned the accord are reversible “if Washington lifts sanctions in a verifiable process”.

Iranian leadership and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued statements against Azerbaijan, saying that it is allowing Israeli influence and plots to be implemented in the region, which Azerbaijan dismissed.

Iranian Chief of Staff General Mohammad Bagheri, on a visit to Moscow, pointed to his country’s intention to revive military cooperation with Russia as soon as the restrictions imposed by the UN Security Council are lifted.

Earlier in the month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Abdollahian visited Moscow to coordinate on regional affairs including Afghanistan. It also held the Afghan talks with regional countries in the Moscow Format, following the Russian initiative.

Saudi -Lebanon– Pursuant to the criticism by a Lebanese Minister of the role played by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Riyadh expelled the Lebanese Ambassador and withdrew theirs. Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE followed suit. As for Oman it urged all sides to not escalate the crisis. It was seen as the primacy of Hezbollah backed by Iran which has vitiated the relations as Lebanon wades through an unprecedented political and economic crisis. Qatar is trying to mediate.

Ahead of the G20 and Glasgow Summits Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that the Kingdom aims to reach zero-net emissions by 2060 through circular carbon economy. He launched the Forum and the Saudi Green Initiative in Riyadh, which will witness the introduction of new environmental initiatives for the Kingdom and will follow up on the progress of the ongoing programs within the Green Initiative. In his speech, the Crown Prince revealed plans to cut carbon emissions by over 270 million tons per year with investments of more than 700 billion riyals ($186.63 billion).

During his visit to Riyadh the US Special Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking assured that Washington is 100 percent committed to the defence of Saudi Arabia, while urging that cross-border attacks by Houthis into the Kingdom must stop underscoring “We have 70,000 Americans living and working all over the Kingdom. And it would be a terrible thing for any of those Americans to be harmed, in addition to Saudis and all the many other foreigners working in Saudi Arabia,” whose security was equally important.

Saudi –Pakistan

Imran Khan visited Saudi Arabia for an Investment Meet. Saudi Arabia revived its financial support to Pakistan, including US$3 billion in deposits to the central bank and up to $1.5 billion worth of oil supplies with deferred payments. Saudi Arabia had suspended aid last year because of Pakistani criticism of the kingdom’s lack of support in its dispute with India over Kashmir.

However, the kingdom’s renewed support results from a desire to counter tightening military and cultural relations between Pakistan and Turkey as well as Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban in the wake of the group’s victory in Afghanistan

UAE-Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that he received an invitation letter from Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to visit the United Arab Emirates. The stronger the bond between our countries, the stronger the security and stability in the entire region,” the Israeli PM said. Earlier Secretary Blinken organised a discussion with his UAE and Israeli counterparts to take stock of developments since the Abraham Accords were signed a year ago. However, Foreign Minister Bin Zayed also said, during a joint news conference with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, in Washington DC, that there could be no talk of peace in the Middle East if Israel and the Palestinians were not “on talking terms”. He stressed that a more successful UAE-Israeli relationship would encourage both Israelis and Palestinians to see “that this path works, that this path is worth not only investing in but also taking the risk.

On the other hand, surprisingly Israel is claiming to lead the negotiations between Abud Dhabi and Ramallah. According to media reports Israeli-Arab Minister of Regional Cooperation, Issawi Frej, has revealed that a possible reconciliation between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and UAE would be announced soon

Israeli PM Naftali Bennet visited Russia to meet President Putin and discussed bilateral and regional issues. Russia reportedly allowed limited Israeli strikes in Syria

Algeria- Morocco-France

Algeria, which has long supported the Palestinian cause and opposed Morocco’s normalisation of ties with Tel Aviv, cut diplomatic ties with Rabat on August 24 over “hostile actions”, including alleged spying on its officials. Algeria has rejected attending roundtable talks on Western Sahara, considering the roundtable format “deeply unbalanced and counterproductive”, as per its Western Sahara Envoy Amar Belani . “We confirm our formal and irreversible rejection of the so-called roundtable format,” Belani asserted, warning that this format would thwart United Nations (UN) Envoy Staffan De Mistura’s efforts.

Belanialso denied reports that visiting Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan had discussed the dispute between Algeria and Morocco during his visit to Algiers. The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said the minister’s visit aimed to “strengthen joint cooperation” including bilateral political cooperation that supports regional security and stability as well as “the latest regional and international developments”.

France and Algeria’s relations again got entangled amidst controversy observe the statements by French President when Algiers refused permission to Paris to use its air space as well as two of ministries stopped using French language. French President, Emmanuel Macron, reported by Le Monde newspaper, considered that Algeria was built after its independence in 1962 on a “memory revenue” established by the “political-military regime.” He also questioned the existence of an Algerian nation before French colonialism. Macron regretted his unintended statement.

Turkey US

Biden and Erdogan met in Rome to try to repair the damaging relationship between the two NATO allies. They discussed F16 and Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S 400 air defence system.

West Asian Economic Forum-The QUARTET

During Dr S Jaishankar’s visit to Israel the foreign ministers of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, India and the US held a hybrid meeting to bolster coordination. Following the meeting, Lapid said he agreed with his counterparts to establish a forum for economic cooperation. This is being seen as a highly significant development and possibly yet another QUAD.

Lebanon

US Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives introduced a resolution on expressing solidarity with the Lebanese people and the continued efforts to form a secure, independent, and democratic Lebanon. The lawmakers stressed that security, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Lebanon is in the interest of the United States and its allies in the region. They underlined the US robust assistance for Lebanon, including training and equipment provided for the Lebanese Armed Forces, which it described as the sole institution entrusted with the defence of the sovereignty of Lebanon. The bill accused Iran of undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty and its history as a US partner and democratic actor in the Middle East.

Palestine

The US will engage Israel seeking more information about the designation of six Palestinian civil society groups as terrorist organizations, State Department spokesperson Ned Price claiming that Washington was not given advance warning of the designation, a move that drew criticism from the United Nations and human rights watchdogs.
US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that the Biden administration intends to press ahead with its plan to reopen the Jerusalem consulate that traditionally engaged with Palestinians, despite Israeli opposition to such a move, Reuters reports.

India –
EAM’s visit to Israel

During the first ever dehyphenated visit of an Indian Foreign Minister to Israel the two sides agreed to start the negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). They have also decided to form a Task Force to formulate a comprehensive ten-year roadmap to identify new areas of defence cooperation at the 15th meeting of the India-Israel Joint Working Group (JWG) on bilateral defence cooperation held in Tel Aviv. Indian Air Force a also participated in the “Blue Flag “exercises in Israel along with many other countries. The two sides reviewed the progress made in the military-to-military engagements, including exercises and industry cooperation. The co-chairs were also apprised of the progress made by the Sub Working Groups (SWG) on Defence Procurement & Production and Research & Development.
It was also decided to form an SWG on Defence Industry Cooperation and in this regard, a document on Terms of Reference was signed between the two sides. The formation of this SWG would enable efficient utilisation of bilateral resources, effective flow of technologies and sharing industrial capabilities. It was also decided to schedule the Service level Staff talks in a specific time frame.

India -UAE

UAE’s Minister of State for Trade visited India and had wide ranging discussions. During the visit it was decided to finalise a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries.

MOS to Sudan and South Sudan

Shri V Muraleedharan visited Sudan and South Sudan to follow up on bilateral relations and enhancing engagement across the spectrum. However, Sudan witnessed the overthrow of the civilian government by the military junta that may have an impact on the eventual outcomes.

PM Modi met Saudi Crown Prince

Mohammed bin Salman on the side lines of the G20 in Rome and discussed wide ranging issues of mutual interest.

Some more details…
FM S. Jaishankar’s visit to Israel

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Israel from 17 to 21 October after invitation from alternate Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. He met with President Issac Herzog and Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and prepared a roadmap for enriching the strategic ties and exploring new areas of bilateral collaboration.

Jaishankar interacted with Israeli academics, Indian origin Jewish community, business community leaders and Indian workers and students. He also visited the Talpiyot cemetery to pay respect to Indian soldiers who died in the region during First World War. Notably around 900 Indian soldiers are interred in cemeteries in Jerusalem, Ramle and Haifa.

India’s bilateral relations with Israel have been upgraded to strategic partnership during the visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in July 2017. Both states are keen to expand knowledge based partnership, innovation, research and boosting the Make in India initiative.

Israel UAE sign Space Agreement

Israel’s Minister of Science, Technology and Space, Orit Farkash Hacohen and UAE’s Minister of State for Advanced Technology, Sarah Al Amiri signed space agreement during World Space Week, part of Dubai Expo to enhance cooperation in scientific research, space exploration and knowledge transfer. The UAE Space Agency and Israel Space Agency signed agreement on two key construction projects i.e. Beresheet 2 moon mission and joint scientific research based on the Israeli-French satellite Venus and its data. The Beresheet 2 deriving from the Torah word, “in the beginning” was launched in 2019 to conduct landing on the moon. The agreement on Venus satellite will study the phenomena under earth resources, precision agriculture, desertification, monitoring water bodies, climate change which is crucial for both states.

In terms of space education, Nazareth Space Center would train Emirati and Israeli students about satellite engineering and astronomy. Both states are hoping to expand space research and attempt to determine the exact timing of the moon’s birth.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

Israeli government has announced plans to build new Jewish settlements in West Bank. The Ministry of Construction & Housing has published tenders for 1355 houses in the occupied territory. The Housing Minister, Zeev Elkin, belonging to the right wing New Hope party asserted that strengthening Jewish presence in the West Bank is essential to the Zionist vision.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh called on other nations to confront Israel over the aggression that settlement construction poses for the Palestinian people. The UN expressing grave concern called all settlements in West Bank including East Jerusalem is illegal under international law and obstacle to peace.

The US Department of State spokesperson Ned Price condemned Israel’s push to develop new settlements and objected to retroactively legalise irregular settlement outposts in the Palestinian territory. Price called the settlement expansion as inconsistent with efforts to reduce tensions and ensuring calm. The US however restrained from mentioning any action but suggested that the issue has been discussed at senior levels. The Joe Biden administration has rejected demands by the Progressive Congress members to condition aid to Israel based on its actions in occupied Palestine. Joe Biden has described his administration’s commitment to Israel’s security as ironclad.

Israel in mid-October issued military order declaring six prominent Palestinian rights groups i.e. Al-Haq, Addameer rights group, Defence for Children International-Palestine, the Bisan Center for Research and Development, the Union of Palestinian Women’s Committees and the Union of Agricultural Work Committees as terrorist organisations alleging links with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a left wing movement that works as political party and armed group. The Israeli government has claimed the human rights groups as part of network of organisations serving as international front on behalf of PFLP. The military order essentially outlaws these groups and police are authorised to shut their offices; seize assets and imprisonment.

Military Coup in Sudan

Sudan’s transition to democracy was cut shot after the military dismissed the civilian government in October 2021. The democratic transition in Sudan was propelled after eight months of street protests and civil disobedience since December 2018. It led to Political Agreement and Draft Constitutional Declaration facilitating 39 month political transition period formally transferring executive power to the Sovereignty Council and civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

The military has displayed uneasiness with the civilian takeover process. Earlier in September 2021, the civilian government thwarted a coup attempt by military leading to arrest of 40 officers. The relationship between the civilian and military leadership has been tense throughout this period.
On 16 October, pro-military sympathisers backed by the army held demonstrations calling for coup. In response, pro-democracy protestors came to streets to express support for the civilian government. The nation-wide public demonstrations have created major unrest in different parts of the state. The negotiations between the army and the political coalition of civilian groups also reached a dead end due to differences over security reforms; army’s commercial activities; formation of constitutional court; appointment of an attorney general and chief justice and transfer of the chair of the Sovereignty Council to a civilian official.

Eventually on 25 October, the military chief and chair of the Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dismissed the civilian government and arrested Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and majority of the cabinet. The coup led to widespread protest including clashes with security forces killing at least 10 and injuring more than 150 civilians. The African Union has suspended Sudan’s membership. The US, European Union and other western states condemned the coup and asserted that it would maintain its diplomatic engagement with the civilian government. The military under pressure has indicated its willingness for dialogue, however political groups and citizens coalitions has demanded restoration of the pre-coup political order and constitutional process.

Saudi Arabia-Houthi conflict

Saudi air airstrikes and Houthi drone attacks have continued in October. The Royal Saudi Air Defense Force (RSADF) on 16 October intercepted and destroyed two weaponised drones. Earlier on 8 October, Houthis carried out drone attacks in King Abdullah Airport and Abha airport. Meanwhile in Marib, around 260 Houthis fighters were killed in three days. Saudi Arabia led coalition has conducted daily air raids around Marib targeting Houthis.

The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held discussion with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud about the situation in Yemen. Blinken assured the US commitment to help Saudi Arabia to defend its territory. Besides Yemen, the US and Saudi leaders discussed about the status of the nuclear deal and pressing need for joint efforts to ensure stability in Afghanistan and other regional and international issues.

Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 1st November – 07 November 2021

Economic
US, Britain join countries sounding alarm over China food import rules

Several countries including Japan, Britain, and the United States are urging Chinese customs officials to pause the roll-out of regulations on food imports, arguing the measures risk further disrupting global supply chains. Diplomats from seven economies, which also include Australia, Canada, the European Union and Switzerland, expressed their concerns in an October 27 letter to Customs Minister Ni Yuefeng, according to a copy seen by Bloomberg News. They were objecting to a pair of decrees handed down in April that require food importers to meet sweeping new registration, inspection and labelling requirements by January 1. The letter signals mounting frustrations among China’s foreign suppliers, as ships carrying food to the world’s second-largest economy prepare to leave port without knowing whether they will be able to offload their cargo. The dispute comes at a time when the world is already experiencing massive shipping bottlenecks as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and related swings in the global economy. While President Xi Jinping’s government expressed its own concern this month about ensuring food supplies through winter, there is so far been no indication that it intends to suspend or soften the import measures. Click here to read…

Xi says open to discussion on state-owned companies in CPTPP talks

President Xi Jinping said Nov 04 that China is open to negotiations on industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises in order to be accepted into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. This follows China’s application to join the CPTPP in September, a move seen as undermining the role of the U.S. in championing free trade. Washington was the brainchild of the deal — which includes allies such as Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as eight other countries — but later decided to pull out. Speaking via a video link to the China International Import Expo, a six-day trade fair that opens to the public Nov 05 in Shanghai, Xi also vowed to focus more on imports and promote balanced trade development, even as the future of the “phase one” trade deal with the U.S., which expires next month, remains uncertain. “China will take an active and open attitude in negotiations on issues such as the digital economy, trade and the environment, industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises,” Xi told a gathering of officials and businesspeople. “[This is to] uphold the position of the multilateral trading regime as the main channel for international rules-setting and safeguard the stability of global industrial and supply chains.” Click here to read…

New China data transfer rules to be costly for foreign companies

Proposed rules to tighten control on the transfer of data from China are likely to raise costs significantly for foreign companies operating in the country, lawyers say. Under the draft of Measures on Security Assessment of Cross-Border Data Transfer published by the country’s top internet watchdog last month, companies will be required to conduct a security review before they transfer any “important” data overseas. But “important” is left undefined. The rules are the latest in a series of new regulations introduced by Beijing this year to control the handling of data, including a Data Security Law that went into effect in September and the Personal Information Protection Law that came into force this month. According to the draft data transfer rules, a company that processes the data of more than 1 million people, seeks to transfer personal information on more than 100,000 people out of China, or is involved with cross-border movements of sensitive personal information on more than 10,000 people will be subject to a security assessment. Companies will have to sign contracts with their overseas partners spelling out how Chinese data will be protected and submit the agreements for regulatory review. In effect, foreign companies will need to invest time and money in creating separate systems for handling Chinese data. Click here to read…

Japan weighs curbs on activist investors for national security: minister

On the same day Toshiba shareholders voted to remove the company’s board chairman, Japan’s industry minister suggested that corporations key to national security need protection from activist investors. “We will consider in the government whether there are ways to enable a certain measure of deterrence in cases where particular companies’ business environment becomes unstable, threatening vital operations or research and development,” Hiroshi Kajiyama, who heads the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, told reporters Nov 05. The comments suggest concern that Japan’s current foreign investment rules may not be enough to shield important businesses — such as Toshiba, which is involved in sensitive fields like nuclear power — from shareholder pressure. “We need to think of measures that can protect our national security, regardless of whether [shareholders] are foreign or domestic,” Kajiyama also said. Japan’s revised Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act, which took effect last year, allows for the government to review deals involving companies in designated sectors and overseas investors. Such transactions include the purchase of a stake of 1% or more in a domestic company or a business divestment. The law is centered on prior notification and screening. Click here to read…

U.S. Congress passes $1tn infrastructure bill, ending standoff

After a daylong standoff, Democrats set aside divisions between progressives and centrists to pass a $1 trillion package of highway, broadband and other infrastructure improvements, sending it on to President Joe Biden to sign into law. The 228-to-206 vote is a substantial triumph for Biden’s Democrats, who have bickered for months over the ambitious spending bills that make up the bulk of his domestic agenda. Biden’s administration will now oversee the biggest upgrade of America’s roads, railways and other transportation infrastructure in a generation, which he has promised will create jobs and boost U.S. competitiveness. Democrats still have much work to do on the second pillar of Biden’s domestic program: a sweeping expansion of the social safety net and programs to fight climate change. At a price tag of $1.75 trillion, that package would be the biggest expansion of the U.S. safety net since the 1960s, but the party has struggled to unite behind it. Democratic leaders had hoped to pass both bills out of the House on Nov 05, but postponed action after centrists demanded a nonpartisan accounting of its costs — a process that could take weeks. Click here to read…

Helium-3: The secret ‘mining war’ in space

“Outer space holds virtually limitless amounts of energy and raw materials, from Helium-3 fuel on the Moon for clean fusion reactors to heavy metals and volatile gases from asteroids, which can be harvested for use on Earth and in space,” says former CIA space analyst Tim Chrisman. “China will almost certainly use any resources it is able to acquire to the detriment of its adversaries, competitors and bystanders alike,” Chrisman told the Jerusalem Post, in an interview. Chrisman also served in army intelligence and is a co-founder of Foundation for the Future, a scientific education and public works advocacy group dedicated to creating infrastructure to be able to live and work in space. Beijing is charging forward toward potential revolutions in extracting energy in space and mining space materials and could leave the US behind, Chrisman said. China has an upfront advantage because its military and economic components are virtually inseparable. America faces a greater challenge rallying and uniting different aspects of national power to pursue a single challenging long-term mission. Scientists say two fully-loaded Space Shuttle cargo bay’s worth of Helium-3 — about 40 tonnes worth of the gas — could power the United States for a year at the current rate of energy consumption. Click here to read…

Israeli spyware giant NSO group added to US trade blacklist along with three others

The US has added NSO Group, the Israeli spyware giant behind the infamous Pegasus software used to spy on journalists and human rights activists, to a trade blacklist, along with three firms charged with similar acts. NSO and fellow Israeli spyware firm Candiru have been added to the US’ “entity list,” a trade blacklist that restricts the shipment of US tech to listed companies. The Department of Commerce declared on Nov 03 that the designation of both firms was “based on evidence that these entities developed and supplied spyware to foreign governments that used these tools to maliciously target government officials, journalists, businesspeople, artists, activists, academics, and embassy workers.” The agency also claimed NSO and Candiru’s products had “enabled foreign governments to conduct transnational repression, which is the practice of authoritarian governments targeting dissidents, journalists and activists outside of their sovereign borders to silence dissent.” NSO’s star product, the military-grade encryption-breaker Pegasus, has been deployed extensively around the world and was recently revealed to have been used to hack into smartphones belonging to 37 persons of interest — journalists, human rights activists, and others — last year alone. Click here to read…

Milestone: Cryptocurrency market value blows past $3 trillion

The cryptocurrency market is now worth more than $3 trillion. The little more than a decade old market for digital assets has already roughly quadrupled from its 2020 year-end value, as investors have gotten more comfortable with established tokens such as Bitcoin and networks like Ethereum and Solana continue to upgrade and attract new functionality. Excitement about the possibilities of decentralized finance and non-fungible tokens is growing, and memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu continue to attract attention. “Bitcoin appears to be pushing out of a bullish flag pattern, and Ether is likely to confirm a long-term breakout on a close above resistance this Nov 12,” said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, in a note. As of 9:54 a.m. in New York, the overall market cap of cryptocurrencies hit $3.3 trillion, according to CoinGecko pricing. The third- and fourth-biggest tokens, Binance Coin and Solana, have added more than 20% in the past seven days; all of the seven biggest coins are up over the last week. Bitcoin rose as much as 5.6% on Nov 08 to $66,414, nearing its previous record of about $67,000. Ether advanced as much as 3% to a new high of $4,768. Click here to read…

Focus turns to climate finance after flurry of COP26 pledges

Governments will push for agreement on Nov 08 on how to help vulnerable countries deal with global warming and compensate them for damage already done, a test of whether developing and rich nations can end a standoff over cash for climate change. At the start of a crunch week for the U.N. climate talks in Glasgow, government ministers will get down to the nitty gritty of trying to honor earlier promises to pay for climate-linked losses and damages and addressing questions of how best to help nations adapt to the effects of climate change. Britain, which is hosting the COP26 meeting, will again try to set the pace, announcing 290 million pounds ($391 million) in new funding, including support for countries in the Asia Pacific to deal with the impact of global warming. That will come, the British government says, on top of the “billions in additional international funding” already committed by rich countries such as the United States, Japan and Denmark for adaption and resilience in vulnerable nations, many of which have experienced the worst effects of climate change. But while developing countries want more money to help them adapt to higher temperatures that have caused more frequent droughts, floods and wildfires, developed nations have encouraged finance to go towards cutting emissions. Click here to read…

Australia vows to sell coal ‘for decades’

Australia said Nov 08 it will sell coal for “decades into the future” after spurning a pact to phase out the polluting fossil fuel to halt catastrophic climate change. More than 40 countries pledged to eliminate coal use within decades during the COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow, which aims to cap the warming of Earth since the Industrial Revolution to between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius. Australia, along with some other major coal users such as China and the United States, did not sign up. “We have said very clearly we are not closing coal mines and we are not closing coal-fired power stations,” Australian Minister for Resources Keith Pitt told national broadcaster ABC. Defending Australia’s decision, Pitt said Australia had some of the world’s highest quality coal. “And that is why we will continue to have markets for decades into the future. And if they’re buying… well, we are selling.” Demand for coal is expected to rise until 2030, the minister claimed. “If we aren’t to win that market, somebody else will,” Pitt added. “I would much rather it be Australia’s high-quality product, delivering Australian jobs and building Australia’s economy than coming from Indonesia or Russia or elsewhere.” Click here to read…

Supply-Chain Crisis Has Companies Asking: Should We Still Advertise?

“It’s not wise to drive demand when shelves are bare,” said Susan Cantor, chief executive officer of branding firm Sterling Brands. Chocolate giant Hershey Co. and household-goods manufacturers Kimberly-Clark Corp. and Church & Dwight Co. in recent days said they cut back on ad and marketing spending in the third quarter because of supply-chain issues. Two of the largest players in online advertising, Facebook Inc. and Snap Inc., said recently that they expected a slowdown in revenue growth in the fourth quarter, due in part to macroeconomic factors such as supply-chain bottlenecks and labour shortages. Both companies said their advertising business’s performance was also hurt by Apple Inc.’s new privacy rules, which make it harder for advertisers to target their ads at audiences. The retreat comes as the ad market has been booming, thanks in part to strong consumer confidence and the end to some restrictions intended to slow down the spread of Covid-19. The fourth quarter of the year is typically the most lucrative for media entities as brands and retailers rely heavily on the critical holiday shopping season. Advertisers however are also reluctant to cut marketing expenditures too deeply. Many believe it is important to remain top of mind with customers. Click here to read…

Strategic
US wants coexistence not cold war with China, Jake Sullivan says

In an interview with CNN on Nov 07, Sullivan said the administration of US President Joe Biden did not intend to repeat “one of the errors” of previous policies by seeking to transform the Chinese system. “The [objective] of the Biden administration is to shape the international environment so that it is more favourable to the interests and values of the US, allies, partners, to like-minded democracies. It is not to bring about a fundamental transformation of China itself,” he said. “The goal of America’s China policy is to create a circumstance in which two major powers are going to have to operate in an international system for the foreseeable future, and we want the terms of that … to be favourable to American interests and values.” During the interview, the national security adviser said the White House had been advancing the ally system to counter what he called China’s “abuse” of US, European and Indo-Pacific markets and to “show that China’s efforts at pushing other partners around will not ultimately be successful”. Lu Xiang, a research fellow in US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Sullivan took a more “euphemistic” tone in the interview but the underlying attitude towards China had not changed. Click here to read…

Explainer | Communist Party’s ‘sixth plenum’: what is a plenum, and why is it one of China’s most important political events?

The current 19th Central Committee was elected in 2017 and will sit until next year’s National Congress, when a new committee will be appointed. Each committee usually holds seven plenary sessions during its five-year term. The sixth plenary session usually focuses on ideology and party building and can pave the way for the leadership reshuffle at the party congress the following year. The plenums are a key venue for the party to display unity among the party leadership and indicate the direction of key policies. The meeting serves as a precursor for the introduction of important laws, regulations and economic plans, and discussions that continue beyond the plenum will almost certainly lead to the introduction of new policies. Examples include Hong Kong’s national security law, which was announced in vague wording at the fourth plenum in 2019, the constitutional amendments that lifted presidential term limits, endorsed at the third plenum in 2018, and the abolition of the notorious re-education through labour system, announced at the third plenum of the 18th Central Committee in 2013. These announcements took legal effect after they were endorsed by the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature. Click here to read…

China’s military uses fake US aircraft carrier for missile target practice

The Chinese military is using mock-ups of a US aircraft carrier at a weapons-testing range in a remote western desert, new satellite imagery shows, indicating the People’s Liberation Army is focused on neutralising a key tool of US power. Satellite images show targets in the shape of a carrier and two Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers at a testing facility in the Taklamakan desert in Xinjiang, according to the news website of the US Naval Institute. Both types of vessels are deployed by the US Seventh Fleet, which patrols the Western Pacific including the waters around Taiwan. The images were taken in October by Maxar Technologies, a US firm with more than 80 company-built satellites in orbit. The facility also had two rectangular targets about 75 metres (246 feet) long that were mounted on rails, Maxar said in a statement to Bloomberg News on Nov 08. The site is clear to satellites, a sign that Beijing is trying to show Washington what its missile The DF-21D is central to China’s strategy of deterring military action off its eastern coast by threatening to destroy the major sources of US power projection in the region, its carrier battle groups. Click here to read…

‘You are not alone’: EU Parliament delegation tells Taiwan on 1st official visit

The European Parliament’s first official delegation to Taiwan said on Nov 04 the diplomatically isolated island is not alone and called for bolder actions to strengthen EU-Taiwan ties as Taipei faces rising pressure from Beijing. Taiwan, which does not have formal diplomatic ties with any European nations except tiny Vatican City, is keen to deepen relations with members of the European Union. The visit comes at a time when China has ramped up military pressure, including repeated missions by Chinese warplanes near democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own and has not ruled out taking by force. “We came here with a very simple, very clear message: You are not alone. Europe is standing with you,” Raphael Glucksmann, a French member of the European Parliament, told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a meeting broadcast live on Facebook. “Our visit should be considered as an important first step,” said Glucksmann, who is leading the delegation. “But next we need a very concrete agenda of high-level meetings and high-level concrete steps together to build a much stronger EU-Taiwan partnership.” The three-day visit, organised by a committee of the European Parliament on foreign interference in democratic processes, will include exchanges with Taiwanese officials on threats such as disinformation and cyber-attacks. Click here to read…

China has debated attacking Taiwan-controlled islands, Taiwan official says

A top Taiwan security official told lawmakers on Nov 04 that China had internally debated whether to attack Taiwan’s Pratas Islands but will not do so before 2024, the year President Tsai Ing-wen’s term ends. National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong did not say how he knew that such a move had been debated or why it would not happen during the next few years. China’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Nov 04. Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by Beijing, has complained for over a year of repeated sorties by China’s air force, often in the southwestern part of its air defense zone near the Taiwan-controlled but lightly defended Pratas Islands. Lying roughly between southern Taiwan and Hong Kong, the Pratas are seen by some security experts as vulnerable to Chinese attack due to their distance – more than 400 km (250 miles) – from mainland Taiwan. China has blamed Taiwan, and its most important international supporter the United States, for the simmering tensions across the Taiwan Strait. “Attacking and capturing the Pratas Islands – this scenario where war is being used to force (Taiwan into) talks – our assessment is that this will not happen during President Tsai’s tenure,” Chen told a parliamentary meeting. Click here to read…

Xi expands wartime mobilization powers as Taiwan tensions rise

China has granted the central leadership under President Xi Jinping greater control over mobilization for national defense without having to go through time-consuming legislative processes. The changes will allow, for instance, the leadership to swiftly amend the National Defense Mobilization Law and broaden the age groups of civilians it would recruit when on a war footing. While the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, is a rubber-stamp body, amendments to such laws typically involve two or three rounds of discussion by the NPC’s Standing Committee, which meets roughly every one to two months. The move comes as tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait and is seen as an attempt by Beijing to prepare for a contingency. Last month, the NPC Standing Committee adjusted the amendment process for four laws — the National Defense Mobilization Law, the Civil Air Defense Law, the National Defense Transportation Law and the National Defense Education Law — to concentrate powers in the central leadership. The National Defense Mobilization Law stipulates that men aged 18 to 60 and women aged 18 to 55 can be mobilized for national defense purposes if “state sovereignty, unification, territorial integrity or security is threatened.” Click here to read…

Japan’s Kishida to tap ex-defense chief Hayashi as foreign minister

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will appoint former Defense Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi as foreign minister, Nikkei has learned. The new cabinet is expected to be formed on Nov 10. Kishida has told party executives in the ruling coalition of his decision. The move comes after Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party appointed former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi to the No. 2 post of secretary-general. At the moment, Kishida is doubling as foreign minister. Besides the top defense post, Hayashi also had served as education minister and agriculture minister. Hayashi, a member of the LDP’s Kishida faction, is also known as a pro-Beijing lawmaker. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Hayashi entered politics as an upper house member in 1995. He was elected to the lower house for the first time in the general election held Oct. 31. Kishida’s LDP faction is one of the two LDP groups that have traditionally advocated for good relations with China. The faction, formally known as Kochikai, was once led by Masayoshi Ohira, who as a foreign minister under Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka in the 1970s played an instrumental role in Japan’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Beijing. Click here to read…

Japan, Germany expand military ties as German warship visits

Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi on Nov 05 said Japan will step up military cooperation with Germany in the Indo-Pacific region as he welcomed a port call by the first German warship to visit Japan in about 20 years. The frigate Bayern is visiting Tokyo after two days of joint exercises with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Samidare in the Pacific Ocean amid increasingly assertive maritime activities by China in the region. The ship’s visit is “an important turning point” in pursuing a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and secure one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, Kishi said after inspecting the frigate with German officials. “It shows Germany’s strong commitment to actively contribute to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” he said. The frigate left Germany in August for deployment in the Indo-Pacific as part of the country’s recent shift to the region and follows similar moves by other European countries including Britain, France and the Netherlands. Japan and Germany signed an agreement in March on the protection of classified information exchanges and held their first security talks involving defense and foreign ministers in June. Click here to read…

Myanmar’s military plots to change electoral system, tighten grip

Myanmar’s military regime is laying the groundwork for an electoral system based on proportional representation, an apparent bid to ensure it maintains the control it seized nine months ago. The proposed reform is designed primarily to prevent the dominance of the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, which won an overwhelming majority in the general election held exactly one year ago. Alleging massive voter fraud, the military overthrew the NLD government on Feb. 1. It continues to detain Suu Kyi and other senior NLD members. The generals’ takeover led to nationwide protests and a general strike, prompting a bloody military crackdown. Former Gen. Thein Soe during a three-day meeting of party representatives that ended on Nov 07 suggested he supports the proposal to replace the current election system with one based on proportional representation. The former general heads the Union Election Commission, an election administration committee reorganized after the military’s power grab. During the meeting in Yangon, the country’s largest city, representatives of political parties discussed the electoral system. Click here to read…

Tension rises in Iraq after failed bid to assassinate PM

The failed assassination attempt against Iraq’s prime minister at his residence on Nov 07 has ratcheted up tensions following last month’s parliamentary elections, in which the Iran-backed militias were the biggest losers. Helicopters circled in the Baghdad skies throughout the day, while troops and patrols deployed around Baghdad and near the capital’s fortified Green Zone, where the overnight attack occurred. Supporters of the Iran-backed militias held their ground in a protest camp outside the Green Zone to demand a vote recount. Leaders of the Iran-backed factions converged for the second day on a funeral tent to mourn a protester killed Nov 05 in clashes with security. Many of the faction leaders blame the prime minister for the violence. “Cowardly rocket and drone attacks don’t build homelands and don’t build a future,” he said in the televised speech. Condemnation of the attack poured in from world leaders, with several calling Al-Khadimi with words of support. They included French President Emmanuel Macron, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Saudi Arabia called the attack an apparent act of “terrorism.” Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on Facebook urged all sides in Iraq to “join forces to preserve the country’s stability.” Click here to read…

China is amassing nukes much faster than previously thought – Pentagon report

China is beefing up its nuclear arsenal a lot faster than Washington thought just a year ago, a new Pentagon report says, predicting that Beijing will own at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade. The Department of Defense published its newest assessment of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) wartime potential in an annual report titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China. “The accelerating pace of the PLA’s nuclear expansion may enable the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to have up to about 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027,” a Pentagon official said, describing the key details of the report. And the report states that the PRC likely intends to have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 – exceeding the pace and the size that we projected in the 2020 China Military Power report. The last year’s report claims that China’s existing nuclear warhead stockpile was “in the low 200s,” projecting that the number would at least double during the 2020s. The US views China as a strategic rival on the world stage. The countries have accused each other of stirring up tensions around Taiwan and the wider South China Sea region. Click here to read…

North Korea Can Make More Uranium for Nuclear Bombs Than Previously Thought

North Korea has the capacity to make more base ingredients for nuclear bombs than previously believed, according to new research, suggesting the Kim Jong Un regime possesses the potential to accelerate the earliest stages of production. The nation’s output of uranium—a fissile material for nuclear weapons when enriched—is just a fraction of what could be produced, according to new research from Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. The assertion is based on satellite-imagery analysis of the equipment and facility size of the Kim regime’s only confirmed operational uranium mining complex in Pyongsan county, about 30 miles north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone. That milling capacity assessment was contrasted with North Korea’s estimated production, based on the levels of waste deposited near the mill. Furthermore, researchers tracked deforestation levels to study mining activity from 2017 to 2020, using an algorithm to analyze satellite imagery and detect land-use changes. Decades-old estimates of North Korea’s annual uranium ore output were put at roughly 30,000 metric tons, the report said. But the capacity could be as much as 360,000 metric tons, according to the Stanford analysis, which factored in Pyongsan’s milling infrastructure, size and equipment. Click here to read…

Kremlin reveals Putin spoke to head of CIA

As well as meeting the secretary of the Russian Security Council and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, the director of America’s CIA has also had a phone call with President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has revealed. Speaking to the press on Nov 08, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that CIA boss William Burns talked directly with Putin. This is unusual for the Russian leader, who typically delegates discussions with other foreign officials, generally preferring only to speak directly to heads of state. “They discussed bilateral relations and the current crisis in bilateral diplomatic relations. They also exchanged views on regional conflicts,” Peskov told reporters. Burns was in Moscow for a two-day working visit last week, along with a delegation of senior American officials. During his trip, the CIA director met with Nikolay Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council, and Sergey Naryshkin, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Burns’ trip was the latest in a series of recent bilateral talks between American and Russian officials. Last month, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland traveled to Moscow for a three-day visit, but negotiations broke down without producing any tangible results. Click here to read…

Taliban leader warns against infiltrators in the ranks

The supreme leader of the Taliban warned Nov 04 against the danger of turncoats and infiltrators in the movement that has taken charge of Afghanistan. Reflecting the seriousness of the threat, the reclusive Haibatullah Akhundzada issued a rare written public statement to urge Taliban commanders to purge their ranks. In it he says “all those elders of their groups must look inside their ranks and see if there is any unknown entity working against the will of the government, which must be eradicated as soon as possible”. “Whatever wrong happens, the elder will be responsible for the consequences of the actions in this world and in the afterlife,” he warned in a statement tweeted out by multiple Taliban accounts. The Islamist militant movement seized power in August after overrunning the capital and ousting the collapsing US-backed government, declaring a new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. But after 20-years of guerrilla warfare, the Taliban has been forced to expand their ranks rapidly by recruiting former foes, allied Islamist militants and young madrassa students. Now that it is the government, the movement faces attacks in its turn from hardline factions like Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). Click here to read…

Ethiopia’s war marked by ‘extreme brutality’ from all sides: UN

A joint investigation into alleged atrocities in Ethiopia found all sides committed grave abuses that may amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes in the yearlong war in the Tigray region. The report, a collaboration by the United Nations human rights office with the government-created Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), was released on Nov 03 as the country enters a new state of emergency with rival Tigrayan forces threatening to advance on the capital, Addis Ababa. It came as the United States State Department said it was sending Jeffrey Feltman, special envoy for the Horn of Africa, to Ethiopia for talks on Nov 04 and Nov 05 to urge “all Ethiopians to commit to peace and resolution of grievances through dialogue”. “The United States is increasingly troubled by the expansion of combat operations and intercommunal violence in Ethiopia and is closely monitoring the situation,” a State Department spokesperson said. Michelle Bachelet, the UN high commissioner for human rights, said the Tigray conflict has been marked by “extreme brutality”. “ “The joint investigation team has covered numerous violations and abuses including unlawful killings and extrajudicial executions, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, violations against refugees and forced displacement of civilians.” Click here to read…

Iran wants U.S. assurances it will never abandon nuclear deal if revived

Iran said on Nov 08 that the United States should provide guarantees that it will not abandon Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers again, if talks to revive the agreement succeed. Indirect talks between Iran and the United States, which stalled in June after the election of hardline Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, are set to resume on Nov. 29 in Vienna to find ways to reinstate the 2015 accord. It has eroded since 2018, when then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from it and reimposed sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to breach mandated limits on uranium enrichment the following year. “The U.S. should show that it has the capability and will to provide guarantees that it will not abandon the deal again if the talks to revive the deal succeed,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a virtual news conference. Echoing Iran’s official stance, Khatibzadeh said Washington must lift all sanctions imposed on Tehran in a verifiable process and “recognise its fault in ditching the pact”. That ongoing stance is likely to cause concern in the United States and with its European allies – France, Britain and Germany – who deem it unrealistic and want to resume June’s talks where they left off without new demands. Click here to read…

Abu Dhabi to allow non-Muslim civil marriage under family law shakeup

Non-Muslims will be allowed to marry, divorce and get joint child custody under civil law in Abu Dhabi according to a new decree issued on Nov 07 by its ruler, state news agency WAM said. It is the latest step in the United Arab Emirates — where personal status laws on marriage and divorce had been based on Islamic sharia principles, as in other Gulf states — to maintain its competitive edge as a regional commercial hub. The decree from Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan, who is also president of the UAE federation of seven emirates, said the law covers civil marriage, divorce, alimony, joint child custody and proof of paternity, and inheritance. It aims to “enhance the position and global competitiveness of the emirate as one of the most attractive destinations for talent and skills”, WAM said. The report described the civil law regulating non-Muslim family matters as being the first of its kind in the world “in line with international best practices”. A new court to handle non-Muslim family matters will be set up in Abu Dhabi and will operate in both English and Arabic. Click here to read…

Biden’s democracy summit: Problematic invite list casts shadow on impact

President Joe Biden is getting ready to deliver on a key campaign promise by convening a Summit for Democracy: a first-of-its kind gathering of more than 100 countries to help stop democratic backsliding and erosion of rights and freedoms worldwide. But rights advocates are questioning whether the virtual event can push those world leaders who are invited, some accused of harboring authoritarian tendencies, to take meaningful action. The event – to be held on Dec. 9 and 10 – is a test of Biden’s longstanding claim, announced in his first foreign policy address as president in February, that the United States would return to global leadership under his tenure to face down authoritarian forces led by China and Russia. A tentative invite list first reported by Politico and confirmed by a source familiar with the matter shows that the event will bring together mature democracies such as France and Sweden but also countries including Philippines and Poland, where activists say democracy is under threat. In Asia, some U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea were invited, while others like Thailand and Vietnam were not. Representation from the Middle East was slim with Israel and Iraq among the few countries invited and notable U.S. allies such as Egypt and NATO partner Turkey absent from the list. Click here to read…

Medical
China’s Army Furnishes Foreign Militaries With Covid-19 Vaccines

In Zimbabwe, where just 18% of the population are fully vaccinated against Covid-19, the armed forces have a surplus of shots thanks to a gift from a powerful benefactor: China’s People’s Liberation Army. In the Philippines, another PLA donation has helped the majority of service members get vaccinated. In Ethiopia, where the Biden administration is levying fresh sanctions over alleged atrocities committed in an offensive against Tigray rebels, the PLA has delivered 300,000 Covid-19 vaccines to government troops. The People’s Liberation Army has rapidly expanded vaccine donations to military forces this year across four continents. Chinese Defense Ministry figures show that as of September, it had made more than 30 deliveries to about two dozen countries. Many of the recipients, like Zimbabwe and Ethiopia, are important players in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. The PLA’s shipments have come with additional military aid, including medical training and scholarships for senior officers to study in Chinese military colleges. In many cases, they also supplement shipments with donations of personal protective equipment, ventilators and other medical assistance. Click here to read…

Covid-19 Vaccines and Myocarditis Link Probed by Researchers

As U.S. health authorities expand use of the leading Covid-19 vaccines, researchers investigating heart-related risks linked to the shots are exploring several emerging theories, including one centered on the spike protein made in response to vaccination. Researchers aren’t certain why the messenger RNA vaccines, one from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech and the other from Moderna Inc. are likely causing the inflammatory heart conditions myocarditis and pericarditis in a small number of cases. Some theories center on the type of spike protein that a person makes in response to the mRNA vaccines. The mRNA itself or other components of the vaccines, researchers say, could also be setting off certain inflammatory responses in some people. One new theory under examination: improper injections of the vaccine directly into a vein, which sends the vaccine to heart muscle. To find answers, some doctors and scientists are running tests in lab dishes and examining heart-tissue samples from people who developed myocarditis or pericarditis after getting vaccinated. Myocarditis describes inflammation of the heart muscle, while pericarditis refers to inflammation of the sac surrounding the muscle. Covid-19 itself can cause both conditions. They have also been reported in a smaller number of people who got an mRNA vaccine, most commonly in men under 30 years and adolescent males. Click here to read…

US lifts COVID restrictions for many foreign travellers

The United States is opening its doors to travellers from a long list of countries that had been subject to previous pandemic restrictions. Fully vaccinated travellers from Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom and most of Europe, as well as China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil, will be allowed into the US at airports and land borders as the restrictions are lifted on Nov 08. The pandemic controls, originally put in place at the beginning of 2020, had barred access to the US for non-citizens who had been in those countries 14 days before travelling. The restrictions ravaged the tourism industry, preventing friends and family from easily visiting the US. Under the policy, missed weddings, funerals, and reunions piled up. The countries in question account for 53 percent of all overseas visitors to the US in 2019, according to trade group US Travel. Data from travel and analytics firm Cirium showed airlines are increasing flights between the UK and the US by 21 percent this month over the last month. Air travellers will be required to show not only their vaccination status, but also a negative COVID-19 test. Those travelling by land from Canada and Mexico will need to show only proof of vaccination. Click here to read…

VIF News Digest: National Security – Defence Studies & Terrorism, 01-15 September 2021

DEFENCE

  • Kazakhstan joint military exercise Kazind-21.
  • Indian army to participate in multi-lateral exercise Zapad 2021 in Russia.
  • India & US sign project agreement for air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle.
  • Pacific air chiefs’ symposium 2021.
  • 28th edition of Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX).
  • Royal Australian Navy and Indian Navy commence bilateral exercise – ‘Ausindex’.
  • Delegation of Financial powers to Armed Forces for Revenue Procurement.
  • Cabinet approves procurement of 56 C-295MW transport aircraft for Indian Air Force.
  • Inauguration of emergency landing facility.
  • DRDO hands over air defence missile (MRSAM) System to Indian Air Force.
  • First India-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue.
  • India–Africa Defence Dialogue to be held alongside every DefExpo.
  • 6th edition of Exercise “Peaceful Mission”.
  • Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh addresses 18th India-US Economic Summit.

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

  • India and Russia discussed bilateral cooperation on security issues.
Africa
Nigeria
  • Around 6,000 Boko Haram terrorists have surrendered in last few weeks: claimed Nigerian armed forces.
Afghanistan
  • “Al-Qa’ida will rebuild in Afghanistan,” said CIA’s former Dy. Director Morell.
  • “Al-Qa’ida may seek a comeback in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan,” said the US Defense Secretary Austin.
  • “The UN must not give recognition to Taliban-led government in Afghanistan,” said Afghan envoy to the UN.
Pakistan
  • “Pakistan is involved in harbouring Taliban and the Haqqanis,” said the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
  • Pakistan continues to develop culture of violence, claimed India at the UN.

DOMESTIC TERRORISM

Jammu and Kashmir
  • NH-44 is high on target of JeM and LeT: warned intelligence agencies.
  • Security forces arrested a HM terrorist from Pulwama district.
  • Pakistan’s ISI exporting IS-KP operatives to PoK for a major attack in Kashmir, claimed intelligence reports.
Left-Wing Extremism
  • In 2020, Maoist violence highest in Chhattisgarh: NCRB data.
  • Police arrested senior Maoist leader from Odisha.
  • 52 Maoists, including sympathisers, surrendered in Telangana.
Islamic Extremism
  • NIA filed charge-sheet against three IS operatives in Kerala module case.
  • NIA filed charge-sheet against an IS operative in ‘al-Hind Bengaluru module’ case.
Khalistan-inspired Extremism
  • NIA Special Court framed charges against eight KLF terrorists in connection to killing of Comrade Balwinder Singh Sandhu, SC awardee.
North-East Region Insurgency
  • NIA filed charge-sheet against five ULFA-I operatives in 2019 Grenade Blast case.

CYBER, INFORMATION WARFARE & AI (SECURITY PERSPECTIVE)

  • “Cyber-attacks increasingly targeting Australia’s Critical National Infrastructure”, claimed ACSC.
  • Indian start-up firm comes up with a device to prevent cyber-attacks.
  • US keen to collaborate with Telangana State government in cyber security.
Defence
Indian army to participate in multi-lateral exercise Zapad 2021 in Russia

A 200 personnel contingent of Indian Army is participating in Exercise ZAPAD 2021, a Multi Nation exercise being held at Nizhniy, Russia from 03 to 16 September 2021. ZAPAD 2021 is one of the theatre level exercises of Russian Armed Forces and will focus primarily on operations against terrorists. Over a dozen countries from Eurasian and South Asian Region will participate in this signature event. The NAGA Battalion group participating in the exercise will feature an all Arms combined task force. The exercise aims to enhance military and strategic ties amongst the participating nations while they plan & execute this exercise.

Kazakhstan joint military exercise Kazind-21

The India – Kazakhstan joint military exercise “KAZIND-21” commenced on 01 Sep 2021 at training node Aisha Bibi, Kazakhstan. This is the 5th Edition of Annual bilateral joint exercise of both Armies and will continue till 10th September 2021. The fourth edition of the exercise was held at Pithoragarh, India in Sep 2019. The contingent comprises 120 troops from Kazakhstan and 90 soldiers from the Indian Army. Both the contingents will share their expertise and skills in the field of counter terror operations. The exercise will culminate in a 48 hours joint validation exercise scheduled on 08 & 09 September 2021. Click here to read…

India & US sign project agreement for air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle

Ministry of Defence and US Department of Defence signed a Project Agreement (PA) for Air-Launched Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (ALUAV) under the Joint Working Group Air Systems in the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) on July 30, 2021. The PA for ALUAV falls under the Research, Development, Testing and Evaluation (RDT&E) Memorandum of Agreement between Ministry of Defence and US Department of Defence, which was first signed in January 2006 and renewed in January 2015. The agreement is a significant step towards deepening defence technology collaboration between the two nations through co-development of defence equipment. Click here to read…

Pacific Air Chiefs’ symposium 2021

Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) attended the Pacific Air Chiefs Symposium 2021 (PACS-21) at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii from 30 Aug to 02 Sep 21. The event themed “Enduring Cooperation towards Regional Stability” was attended by Air Chiefs from countries in the Indo-Pacific region. CAS was nominated as the Dean for the Symposium.

The Symposium saw deliberations through panel discussions, table top exercises and keynote addresses on topics ranging from aspects of Regional Security and the significance of Air Domain Awareness, to cooperation amongst Air Forces for Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Operations.In addition to participation in the symposium, CAS met General Charles Q. Brown, Jr. Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force and General Kenneth S. Wilsbach, Commander, Pacific Air Forces. He also held bilateral and multilateral meetings on defence cooperation and security with Air Chiefs from eleven other countries. Click here to read…

28th edition of Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX)

The 28th edition of Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX) was conducted from 02 to 04 Sep 21.The Indian Navy, Singapore Navy participated with their ships and four F-16 fighter aircraft of the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) also participated in the exercise during the Air Defence Drills. Click here to read…

Royal Australian Navy and Indian Navy commence bilateral exercise – ‘Ausindex’

The Indian Navy Task Group participated in the 4th edition of AUSINDEX from 06 to 10 Sep 21. Royal Australian Navy (RAN) Anzac Class Frigate, HMAS Warramunga which participated in Exercise MALABAR along with the IN units is also part of the exercise. This edition of AUSINDEX includes complex surface, sub-surface and air operations between ships, submarines, helicopters and Long Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft of the participating Navies.

The participating Indian Naval Ships Shivalik and Kadmatt are the latest indigenously designed and built Guided Missile Stealth Frigate and Anti-Submarine Corvette respectively.

The exercise is a true representation of Joint Guidance signed by the Chief of the Naval Staff, IN and Chief of Navy, RAN on 18 Aug 21. This important document is aligned to the ‘2020 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ between the two nations and aims to further consolidate shared commitment to regional and global security challenges promoting peace, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Click here to read…

Delegation of Financial powers to Armed Forces for Revenue Procurement

Raksha Mantri released in New Delhi on September 07, 2021 order on Delegation of Financial Powers to Defence Services (DFPDS) 2021, providing enhanced delegation of Revenue Procurement powers to the Armed Forces. The DFPDS 2021 aims to empower field formations; focus on operational preparedness; promote ease of doing business and enhance jointness among the Services.

The enhanced delegation of Financial Powers to functionaries in Service Headquarters and lower formations would result in quicker decision making at all levels leading to better planning and operational preparedness of the Services in a quicker time frame and optimum utilisation of resources. Some of the highlights are:-

  • Financial powers devolved to field formations; focus on operational preparedness; promote ease of doing business & jointness among Services
  • Two times general enhancement for Competent Financial Authorities; Up to 5-10 times at field formations in certain Schedules
  • 10% increase in Delegated Financial Powers of Vice Chiefs of Services
  • Up to three times increase in Schedules related to Indigenisation/R&D to achieve ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’
  • Enabling provision of Emergency Financial Powers to Field formations below Command level for Defence Services incorporated in Emergency Powers Schedule for ops immediate military necessities

Click here to read….

Cabinet approves procurement of 56 C-295MW transport aircraft for Indian Air Force

Today, Cabinet Committee on Security approved the procurement of fifty six C-295MW transport aircraft from M/s Airbus Defence and Space S.A., Spain for the Indian Air Force. C-295MW aircraft is a transport aircraft of 5-10 Tonne capacity with contemporary technology that will replace the ageing Avro aircraft of IAF. Sixteen aircraft will be delivered in flyaway condition from Spain within 48 months of signing of the contract and forty aircraft will be manufactured in India by TATA Consortium within ten years of signing of the contract. Click here to read…

Inauguration of emergency landing facility

The Emergency Landing Facility (ELF) was inaugurated for the Indian Air Force (IAF) at Satta-Gandhav stretch on NH-925A near Barmer, Rajasthan on September 09, 2021. Two Union Ministers travelled to Barmer on C-130J aircraft to inaugurate the facility. They also witnessed aircraft operations on the ELF, which has been constructed in just 19 months by M/S GHV India Pvt. Ltd. under the supervision of IAF and National Highways Authority of India (NHAI). This is the first time that a National Highway has been used for emergency landing of aircraft of Indian Air Force. This landing strip will be able to facilitate landing of all types of IAF aircraft. Click here to read…

DRDO hands over air defence missile (MRSAM) System to Indian Air Force

First deliverable Firing Unit (FU) of Medium Range Surface to Air Missile (MRSAM) System was handed over to Indian Air Force (IAF) in the presence of Raksha Mantri at Air Force Station, Jaisalmer in Rajasthan on September 09, 2021. The MRSAM (IAF) is an advanced network centric combat Air Defence System developed jointly by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) in collaboration with the Indian industry comprising of private and public sectors including MSMEs.
Key Highlights:

  • MRSAM provides air defence against aerial threats like fighter aircraft, UAVs, guided and unguided munitions & cruise missiles
  • Capable of engaging multiple targets at ranges up to 70 kilometres
  • Indigenously developed rocket motor & control system for achieving high manoeuvrability
  • State-of-the-art missile system
First India-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

India hosted the inaugural India-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on 11 September 2021 in New Delhi. H.E. Ms. Marise Payne, Foreign Minister, and H.E. Mr. Peter Dutton, Defence Minister, of Australia were visiting India on 10-12 September 2021 to take part in the Dialogue. From the Indian side, Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar lead the delegation which comprised of officials from the Ministries of Defence and External Affairs. The inaugural 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue is being held pursuant to the elevation of India-Australia bilateral relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership during the India-Australia Leaders’ Virtual Summit on 04 June 2020. The agenda for the Dialogue covered a range of bilateral, regional and global issues of mutual interest. The RM in his interaction with the Australian Defence Minister highlighted the following issues in his address.

  • Wide-ranging discussions on bilateral defence cooperation as well as regional issues
  • Both sides agree to work jointly to realise full potential of India-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
  • Partnership based on shared vision of free, open, inclusive and rule-based Indo-Pacific region
  • Military engagements to be expanded
  • Australian industry invited to take advantage of India’s liberalised FDI policies

Click here to read…

India–Africa Defence Dialogue to be held alongside every Def Expo

India proposes to institutionalise the India Africa Defence Dialogue during successive Def Expos to be held once every two years. Institutionalisation of the India Africa Defence Dialogue will help building on the existing partnerships between African countries & India and to explore new areas of convergence for mutual engagements including areas like capacity building, training, cyber security, maritime security and counter terrorism.

It has been decided that Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses shall be the knowledge partner of India Africa Defence Dialogue and will assist in providing necessary support for enhanced defence cooperation between India and Africa. It has also been decided that Raksha Mantri will host the Defence Ministers of African Nations in the next India – Africa Defence Dialogue on the sidelines of the Def Expo that is scheduled to be held at Gandhinagar, Gujarat in March 2022. The broad theme of this India Africa Defence Dialogue will be ‘India – Africa: Adopting Strategy for Synergizing and Strengthening Defence and Security Cooperation’.

6th edition of Exercise “Peaceful Mission”

Joint Counter Terrorism Exercise PEACEFUL MISSION is a Multilateral Exercise, which is conducted biennially as part of military diplomacy between Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states. The 6th edition of Exercise PEACEFUL MISSION is being hosted by Russia in the Orenburg Region of South West Russia from 13 to 25 September 2021. The aim of the exercise is to foster close relations between SCO member states and to enhance abilities of the military leaders to command multi-national military contingents.

The Indian military contingent comprising of an all arms combined force of 200 personnel to include 38 personnel from the Indian Air Force is participating in the Exercise PEACEFUL MISSION -2021. The Indian contingent was inducted to the exercise area by two IL-76 aircrafts. Click here to read…

Raksha Mantri (RM) addresses the 18th India-US Economic Summit

Delivering the inaugural address at the 18th India-US Economic Summit, on the theme ‘Bouncing Back – Resilient Recovery Path Post COVID-19’ organised by Indo-American Chamber of Commerce through video conferencing on September 15, 2021. The RM highlighted the defence sector as an integral part of not just the security but overall growth of the country, RM stated the initiatives taken by the Government have transformed India into a strong and reliable investment destination. He said, India is now home to stable and secure government which focuses on economic growth through series of reforms. He added that robust domestic demand and availability of talented young work force & innovation make India a major investment destination.

The RM called upon the industry leaders to focus on transfer of technology through joint ventures to realise the country’s true potential in defence sector. The foreign OEMs can set up manufacturing facilities individually or partner with Indian companies through a JV or technology agreement to capitalise on the ‘Make in India’ initiative, he added. The RM exhorted them to begin the process of Research and Development with the young minds of the country which will increase the linkages among the industries and create an ecosystem through equal contribution from academia and research.

The RM emphasised that there is a lot of scope for the American and Indian defence Industries for co-production and co-development, adding that Indian industry can supply components to American Industries. Click here to read…

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

India and Russia discussed bilateral cooperation on security issues

On 08 September 2021, India’s National Security Adviser (NSA)— Ajit Doval and Russia’s Secretary of the Security Council— Nikolai Patrushev met in New Delhi and discussed deepening the bilateral cooperation on security issues and intensifying the joint efforts on special services and military establishments, with emphasis on anti-terror track, combating illegal migration and narcotics trafficking.

The humanitarian and migration crisis in Afghanistan, including the prospects for the India-Russia joint efforts for creating the launch of peaceful settlement process on the basis of an intra-Afghan dialogue was also discussed. Click here to read…

Africa
Nigeria
Around 6,000 Boko Haram terrorists have surrendered in last few weeks: claimed Nigerian armed forces

In a statement released on 02 September 2021, the Nigerian armed forces informed that in last few weeks, more than 5,860 Boko Haram terrorists, including commanders, have surrendered with their families in the North-East zone. “Out of surrendered terrorists, 565 had been handed over to the government of North-Eastern Borno State for further management after thorough profiling”, said Spokesperson for the Nigerian armed forces— Brigadier General Bernard Onyeuko. Click here to read…

Afghanistan
“Al-Qa’ida will rebuild in Afghanistan,” said CIA’s former Dy. Director Morell

Addressing an online forum hosted by the United States (US) Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia on 08 September, the former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)—Michael Morell emphasised that the Taliban will provide safe-haven to al-Qa’ida and the latter intent to build its capability to attack the US at home. “Counter-terrorism efforts fall into a pattern in which their (al-Qa’ida’s) capabilities can be easily degraded by a focused effort, but easily rebuilds when the focus fades,” said Morell. Click here to read…

“Al-Qa’ida may seek a comeback in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan,” said the US Defense Secretary Austin

On 09 September 2021, the United States (US) Secretary of Defense— Llyod Austin said that the al-Qa’ida group that used Afghanistan as a staging base to attack the US 20 years ago, may attempt to regenerate there following the US withdrawal that has left the Taliban in power. “We have put the Taliban on notice that we expect them to not allow that happen”, Secretary of State Austin said, referring to the possibility of al-Qa’ida using Afghanistan as a staging base in the future. Click here to read…

“The UN must not give recognition to Taliban-led government in Afghanistan,” said Afghan envoy to the UN

On 09 September 2021, the Afghanistan Ambassador to the United Nations (UN)— Ghulam Isaczai urged that the UN should not recognise “caretaker” government formed by the Taliban which overthrew the democratically elected government in mid-August this year. “I….ask you [the UN] to withhold any recognition of any government in Afghanistan, unless it is truly inclusive and formed on the basis of the free will of the people,” said Ambassador Isaczai. Click here to read…

Pakistan
“Pakistan is involved in harbouring Taliban and the Haqqanis,” said the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

Speaking at the House Foreign Affairs Committee on 13 September 2021, the United States (US) Secretary of State—Antony Blinken said that Pakistan has harboured the members of the Taliban, including terrorists of Haqqani Network (HQN), and needs to “line-up” with a broad majority of the international community regarding Afghanistan.

Pakistan has denied its deep ties with the Taliban and has been accused of supporting the group overtly and covertly. It (Pakistan) is also a nation where many senior Taliban leaders, including slain al-Qa’ida leader— Osama bin Laden, have escaped to after the US-led War on Terror in Afghanistan in 2001. Click here to read…

Pakistan continues to develop culture of violence, claimed India at the UN

In the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), on 07 September 2021, the First Secretary in India’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations (UN)— Vidisha Maitra said that Pakistan continues to foment a “culture of violence” at home and across the border; along with using the UN platform for hate speech against India. We dismiss and condemn all such efforts. Click here to read…

DOMESTIC TERRORISM

Jammu and Kashmir
NH-44 is high on target of JeM and LeT: warned intelligence agencies

The Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) send intelligence inputs to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) indicating that Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are planning to carry out a major attack along the National Highway-44 (NH-44) in Srinagar—from Qazigund to Khanabal.

Also, there have been reports of Masood Azhar (JeM’s leader) meeting Taliban’s top leaders in Kandahar in mid-August seeking support for anti-India operations. In 2021, around 272 youths from Kashmir went missing, and it is estimated that at least 82 of them have joined terrorist groups in the Valley, with 42 being recruited by LeT. Click here to read…

Security forces arrested a HM terrorist from Pulwama district

In a joint operation on 09 September 2021, the 50 Rashtriya Rifle (RR), Awantipora police, and the 185th Battalion of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), arrested a Hizbul-Mujahideen (HM) terrorist— Shahid Ahmed Khanday, from Androosa Khrew area of Awantipora area in Pulwama district.

During the search operation, security forces observed some suspicious movement in the area and noticed that a person was trying to flee; however, he was apprehended by the security forces personnel. Click here to read…

Pakistan’s ISI exporting IS-KP operatives to PoK for a major attack in Kashmir, claimed intelligence reports

The intelligence reports claimed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been exporting the Islamic State-Khurasan Province (IS-KP) terrorists into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) with aim to carry out major terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

These IS-KP terrorists were released from Afghan jails and returned to Pakistan after the Taliban overthrew the Ghani government in Afghanistan, amidst the United States (US) withdrawal from the country. Click here to read…

Left-Wing Extremism
In 2020, Maoist violence highest in Chhattisgarh: NCRB data

According to the annual report released by the National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB), on 14 September 2021, Chhattisgarh recorded the highest number of Maoist-related crimes in 2020. Followed by Jharkhand (133 cases registered) and Maharashtra (32 cases registered), Chhattisgarh topped in murders, loot, attempted murders, and arson by Maoists. Click here to read…

Police arrested senior Maoist leader from Odisha

On 14 September 2021, Odisha police arrested senior Maoist leader and Special Zonal Committee member of Andhra-Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC)—Dubbasi Shankar aka Mahender, from Koraput district in Odisha.

Reportedly, Dubbasi had moved out of the jungle terrain to undergo some medical treatment in Koraput district, where he was arrested by police’s special team. Click here to read…

52 Maoists, including sympathisers, surrendered in Telangana

On 09 September 2021, 52 Maoists, including village committee members and sympathisers, from four border villages of Charlamandal of Bhadradri-Kothagudem district in Telangana, surrendered before Superintendent of Police (SP).

Among those who surrendered were five women and seven minors from Pusuguppa, Battigudem, Bathinapalli, and Chennapuram villages. In November 2020, 33 Maoists, including village committee members, had surrendered before police. Click here to read…

Islamic Extremism
NIA filed charge-sheet against three IS operatives in Kerala module case

On 08 September 2021, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed a charge-sheet against three Islamic State (IS) operatives—Mohammed Ameen aka Abu Yahya, Mushab Anwar, and Rahees Rasheed. The case was registered on 05 March 2021, pertaining to terrorist activities of Mohammed Ameen and his associates. Mohammed Ameen have been running various IS propaganda on different social media platforms, including Telegram, Hoop, and Instagram. Click here to read…

NIA filed charge-sheet against an IS operative in ‘al-Hind Bengaluru module’ case

On 03 September 2021, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed a supplementary charge-sheet against Shihabudeenaka Sirajudeenaka Khalid aka Rajesh—an Islamic State (IS) operative, in connection with ‘al-Hind Bengaluru module’ case.

On 10 January 2020, the case was registered against Mehboob Pasha aka Abdullah, and 16 others, in several cases related to terrorism, and murder of Hindu leaders. Investigation has revealed that Shihabudeen was part of larger conspiracy and had collected & hand-over the arms & ammunition in Mumbai to other operatives to be used in the murder of the Special Sub-Inspector (SSI) Y Wilson in Tamil Nadu police. Click here to read…

Islamic Extremism inspired Extremism
NIA Special Court framed charges against eight KLF terrorists in connection to killing of Comrade Balwinder Singh Sandhu, SC awardee

On 31 August 2021, the Special Judge for NIA (National Investigation Agency) cases, Mohali, framed charges against eight Khalistan Liberation Front (KLF) terrorists— i) Sukhraj Singh aka Sukhaaka Lakhanpal, ii) Ravinder Singh aka Ravi Dhillon, iii) Akashdeep Arora aka Dhaliwal, iv) Jagroop Singh, v) Sukhdeep Singh aka Buraaka Bhura, vi) Gurjit Singh aka Bha, vii) Inderjit Singh, and viii) Sukhmeet Pal Singh aka Sukhaka SukhBhikariwal, in connection with murder of Comrade Balwinder Singh, Shaurya Chakra awardee. On 16 October 2020, two unidentified persons killed Comrade Balwinder Singh at his residence in Bhikhiwind, Taran Tarn district in Punjab. Click here to read…

North-East Region Insurgency
NIA filed charge-sheet against five ULFA-I operatives in 2019 Grenade Blast case

On 14 September 2021, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed a supplementary charge-sheet against five operatives of the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) in connection with 2019 Grenade Blast case. In 2019, two ULFA-I operatives threw grenade at a police party near Central Mall, RGB road, Guwahati, in which 12 people were injured. The self-styled commander-in-chief of ULFA-I—Paresh Baruah, took responsibility of the attack.

The charge-sheeted accused are identified as—Pappu Koch Bokoliyal aka BijoyAsom, Amrit Ballav Goswami, Paresh Baruah aka Paresh Asom, Arunodoy Dahotiya aka Bijit Gogoi, and Munna Baruah aka Munna Asom. Click here to read…

CYBER, INFORMATION WARFARE & AI (SECURITY PERSPECTIVE)

“Cyber-attacks increasingly targeting Australia’s Critical National Infrastructure”, claimed the ACSC

In a report published on 15 September 2021, the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) informed that a quarter of cyber attacks reported to the Australian security officials over the past year have targeted the Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) and essential services, including healthcare, food distribution, and energy. The ransomware attacks increased by 15 per cent in the 2020-2021 financial year, as compared to the previous financial year. The ACSC received more than 67,500 reports of cyber-crime of all types in 2020-2021. Click here to read…

Indian start-up firm comes up with a device to prevent cyber-attacks

A Pune-based cyber security start-up firm—Elementik Technologies has launched “Byteseal”— a device to prevent identity-related cyber-attacks, such as phishing and credential thefts. The start-up incubated with Science and Technology Park in Pune and has raised ₹ 1 crore through the Park’s seed-funding scheme, supported by the Department of Science and Technology.

“Byteseal is a secure authentication device which helps subscribers manage their passwords in a more secure and simple way. The device carries the world’s most secure capacitive fingerprint sensor, wireless connectivity to phone and computer via Bluetooth technology and has a long-lasting rechargeable battery up to three months,” said Nikhilesh Wani—founder of the Elementik Technologies. Click here to read…

US keen to collaborate with Telangana State government in cyber security

The United States (US) government expressed its interest to explore ties with Telangana State government in cyber security areas, mainly crypto currency forensics, capacity building, and technology transfer. During her visit to India in August 2021, the US Deputy National Security Adviser (NSA) for Cyber & Emerging Technologies— Anne Neuberger exchanged thoughts on potential cooperation with the State government of Telangana, represented by Industries & Commerce and IT Principal Secretary— Jayesh Ranjan.

Telangana State has been a forerunner in cyber security with dedicated efforts such as State policy, Hyderabad Security Cluster (HSC) and Cyber Security Centre of Excellence (CSCE). Click here to read…

West Asia Roundup -August 2021

Abstract;

Fast moving events in Afghanistan captured the regional and global attention as US forces withdrew in an unprecedented manner shortening their own timelines ceding space to Taliban as the Afghan national forces crumbled. Taliban entered Kabul on August 15. While Doha talks between US and Taliban and Afghan government and other international stakeholders continued in various formats, Qatar along with Pakistan emerged as major interlocutors. Qatari special envoy visited India to invite them to join the extended Troika meetings, as the future course was being discussed, much against the Pakistani opposition. For extensive evacuations also Qatar played a stellar role which was acknowledged by the US and other western countries. It also is hosting the western missions including that of US as they temporarily moved out of Kabul to Doha.

Erstwhile benefactors of Taliban, the Saudi Arabia and UAE were not enthusiastic this time after their experience with the terrorist entity in the wake of 9/11 attacks and Taliban’s refusal to handover Osama bin Laden. However, the Saudis played it down by acknowledging as the wishes of the people which should be respected. “The kingdom stands with the choices that the Afghan people make without interference” was stated by Saudi MFA.
Iran, also pushing for an inclusive government with Hazaras and Shias, is hoping to revive its advantage in Afghanistan as Taliban was veering towards a Pashtun Sunni government broadly on the Iranian model. They started providing fuel supplies at the request of Taliban as they braced for refugees. UAE and Qatar started providing assistance and relief supplies on humanitarian considerations as they helped transit desperate evacuees. Turkey and Qatar also assisted in repairs and running of Kabul airport as long as there security was assured. Geo politics in the region is on full display among regional and global actors especially Russia and China and Saudi Arabia and Iran and Turkey. OIC also called for a meeting to discuss Afghanistan and asked for the new government to ensure that country should not be used for any terrorist activities.

After former President Rivlin’s visit, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet visited US on his first official visit and met President Biden who had cold shouldered Netanyahu in the early days of his Presidency. While Israeli defence and security cooperation were main agendas, Biden Administration was categorical in their pursuit of JCPOA talks with Iran in larger regional context. .

Iraq tried to retrieve its regional role under PM Kadhimi as it plays cupid between Riyadh and Tehran. He hosted a landmark Baghdad Cooperation and Partnership conference which witnessed the participation of nine countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Iran, and Turkey. Syria was not invited. Three regional countries – Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar – were represented. French President Macron was also a key participant conveying their continued interest in the region. France also urged Iran to return to JCPOA talks.

Iraq is scheduled to hold its general elections in October as the domestic politics goes through a churn.

As African Union granted observer status to Israel and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid visited Rabat, the Algerians severed ties with Morocco for latter’s hostile actions including support to separatist groups during the disastrous wild fires in Algeria.

At the invitation of the Government of Iran, External Affairs Minister visited Iran on August 5-6, 2021 to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the President Ayatollah Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi on August 5. He met several leaders during the visit. Dr Jai Shankar was also the first foreign leader to have met the President-elect Raisi when the two sides agreed to collaborate more extensively on bilateral and regional issues.

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Naftali Bennet’s visit to the White House

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet met with US President Joe Biden on 27 August in order to boost the strategic partnership in the post-Benjamin Netanyahu political context. Biden stressed that his government is committed to strengthening bilateral relations that would benefit citizens of both states such as Israel’s inclusion in the Visa Waiver programme. In terms of regional challenges, Biden assured US support towards Israel’s security and right to self-defence. Both states discussed the challenges emerging from Iran’s nuclear programme and its regional actions. Biden expressed his commitment to ensure that Iran does not attain nuclear weapon. Biden also welcomed Israel’s growing engagement with Arab states and the wider Muslim world. Both states also discussed on efforts to advance peace with Palestinians and widening their economic opportunities.

Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza

The situation in Israel’s northern border escalated after Hezbollah launched series of rocket attacks in early August. Israel in response conducted series of air strikes in southern Lebanon. Israel has suggested that it is unwilling to launch a full-fledged war but it would not shy away from all out confrontation in case of escalation by Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s actions are connected to the wider conflict in the region centring on Iran. The Lebanese government has condemned Israel’s escalation. In southern Syria near Quneitra, Israel carried out missile attacks on bases operated by Iran-backed fighters.

Israeli flights carried out air raids in Gaza on 7 August after Hamas operatives launched incendiary balloons towards Israeli population areas and agricultural farms. Palestinians have launched these balloons to protest against the road and sea blockades imposed by Israel and allow goods and aid to reach the territory. Israeli aircrafts in late August resumed air strikes destroying weapons production facilities in Khan Younis, tunnel entrance in Jabalya and rocket launch sites in Shujaiya after few balloons caused fire within Israel. Israel also shot down a rocket using Iron Dome missile defence system launched from Gaza. Besides air strikes, Israeli forces wounded atleast 41 Palestinians during protests to protest against the blockade.

In West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces killed a Palestinian woman after she allegedly attempted to attack with a knife. Palestinians in the recent years have carried out stabbing attacks, shooting and car ramming as forms of violent protests against Israeli military occupation in the West Bank.

Israeli Foreign Minister visits Morocco

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on 12 August visited Morocco and met with the top leadership. Lapid inaugurated Israeli Liaison office in Rabat and both sides agreed to establish embassies within two months. Morocco enjoyed cordial relations with Israel since 1993 Oslo Accords. The relations cooled off in 2000 after the Al Aqsa Intifada. In 2020, Morocco joined the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan to normalise relations with Israel. Morocco after normalising ties with the Jewish state has managed to secure recognition from the US over its control of Western Sahara.

During Yair Lapid’s visit, Morocco’s Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita emphasised on rapid return of direct and serious negotiations between Israelis and the Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia executes Shiite man accused of armed rebellion

The Saudi authorities on 3 August executed one person, Ahmed bin Saeed bin Ali al-Janabi who was charged with armed rebellion and protesting against the state in the Shiite populated eastern region of Qatif. Al Janabi had reportedly opened fire at several security points in Qatif. He also participated in smuggling weapons, riots and protests which are classified as terrorist acts undermining social fabric and cohesion. The restive eastern region with substantial Shiite population on several occasions has voiced opposition against Saudi government’s coercive policies and despite abundance of oil resources, the area is relatively underdeveloped. There have been number of violent protests in Qatif since the 2011 Arab Spring protesting against Saudi Arabia’s discriminatory policies.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia in early August announced arrest of 207 government employees from number of ministries on charges of corruption, fraud and abuse of authority. The arrests backed by the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were conducted by the National Anti-Corruption Commission called Nazaha. The anti-corruption purge was initiated by the Crown Prince in late 2017 in order to consolidate power by targeting more than 300 princes, public figures and businessmen. The kingdom acquired around US$ 106 billion in assets for the purge. In April 2021, the authorities arrested 176 officials from different public sectors on allegations of corruption.

US Ambassador’s meeting with Khalifa Haftar

The US Ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland held meeting with self-styled head of the Libyan National Army and leader of the Tobruk based rival government, Khalifa Haftar on 11 August. Haftar has challenged the legitimacy of the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli and carried out a series of military campaigns against GNA. The country continues to remain under turmoil and after international mediation, the rival sides have agreed to parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2021. In the recent past, the political process has suffered setback due to impasse between Haftar and the Tripoli based government over promotions of security officials without consulting or getting approval from the Presidential Council.

The meeting between Norland and Haftar is part of the US effort to support the political process in Libya. The US ambassador suggested the need to accept difficult compromises necessary for establishing constitutional basis and legal framework prior to December elections.

Bashar Al Assad announces new cabinet after re-election

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad appointed a new government on 10 August. The cabinet positions in defence, interior and foreign affairs ministries remained unchanged. Prime Minister Hussein Arnous maintained his current position. Assad appointed new faces in information, internal trade and consumer protection. There are three women in the 29 member cabinet. In May 2021, Assad won election for 4th term with 95 percent of votes which has been called as illegitimate by the western states and Syrian opposition groups. Syria is facing major economic crisis which has further deteriorated due turmoil in Lebanon. Reportedly, around 80 percent of Syrian population live under property.

In northern Syria, Kurd led Syrian Democratic Forces clashed with Turkey backed Syrian forces killing five and wounding 15 on 18 August. Turkey’s strategic interest in Syria is based on maintaining military control over north-western Syria to block forces under Bashar Al Assad; thwart further inflow of refugees and contain the influence of Kurdish groups.

Iraq retrieves stolen artifacts

Iraq’s Culture Ministry on 3 August received over 17,000 looted ancient artifacts from the US, Japan, Netherlands and Italy. The majority of artifacts date back to 4000 years to ancient Mesopotamia. These items were looted by smugglers after the 2003 US invasion. The recovery that was made possible through months of discussion between the US and Iraqi embassy and has been called as the largest in Iraq’s history. Iraq’s efforts have been backed by the UN.