The month was marked with major developments as the year 2023 is crucial for Myanmar with the announcement of elections. On 31 January, the two years of emergency rule is supposed to end, and the National Defence and Security Council has to conduct elections in the next six months. With the expiry of the emergency rule, one needs to ask whether the elections will take place and, if yes, whether they will be free and fair. The country witnessed many events preceding the elections, with the changes in the elections rules and regulations and the meetings within different groups. Internationally, as the military rule enters its third year, more sanctions were imposed by the western nations and reports by Human Rights Watch and Fortify Rights raised concerns over the worsening situation in the country.

Elections 2023

04 January 2023 marked 75 years of the country’s Independence. The military celebrated the day with parading of troops and weaponry. In earlier years, the day was celebrated with great festivities, but since the coup, celebrations have been largely muted. ^[1] Min Aung Hlaing presided over the parade in which he stated that the regime was preparing for the elections with compilations of voters list and creating household registration data and other personal information. He reiterated that aim is to set up a “genuine, discipline-flourishing” democracy to return the nation to a state of stability and normalcy.^[2] In addition, on 06-07 January, the State Peace Talk Team, led by Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, held meetings with representatives of ethnic armed groups, including the United Wa State Party, the National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Shan State Progress Party to discuss plans to hold elections in their areas. ^[3] The preparation of elections has also led to increased attacks from the resistance side.^[4]

The military replaced the 2010 law with the new law on political parties, which bars parties and candidates deemed to have links to individuals or organisations “designated as committing terror acts” or seen as “unlawful”. The parties also need to secure at least 100,000 members within three months of registration and have funds of 100 million Myanmar kyats i.e. 100 times more than previously. The new law also states that the existing parties must apply for registration within two months of the legislation being announced, or they will be “automatically invalidated”. Furthermore, the law restrains the parties from lodging any complaints against the Union Election Commission (UEC) decisions on registration.^[5] This clearly will prevent any of the resistance forces from being part of the elections and thereby questions the fairness of the elections.

The military regime-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) also stepped up its efforts to solidify its position ahead of polls. On 05 January, Khin Yi held an informal meeting with 37 pro-military parties to discuss how they could strengthen their position in the upcoming elections. In the 2020 elections, the USDP contested almost all the constituencies but only won 71 seats. ^[6] Following the meeting, two also met 235 representatives of Yangon-based organisations and charities in Yangon.^[7] The pro-regime Pyu Saw Htee militias are also forcing voters in Sagaing and Mandalay regions to attend election campaign meetings. ^[8]

The Acting President Duwa Lashi La of the National Unity Government (NUG) also delivered his speech that 2023 would mark the turning point in the war against military rule and called for continuous revolution with an offensive strategy. The NUG released a New Year Joint Declaration on the People’s Revolution, which has drawn up a one-year plan to eradicate the military dictatorship.^[9] They have also called Myanmar’s neighbours and other concerned countries in the Indo-Pacific region to help the people of Myanmar and their legitimate representatives.

There were also statements by Three Brotherhood Alliance and Kachin Independence Organisation chairman General N’Ban La demanding dialogue between all relevant stakeholders without Min Aung Hlaing.^[10] The NUG further stated that it had raised more than USD 100 million to fund its movement. About 45 per cent of the funds are from the sales of Spring Revolution Special Treasury Bonds. Funds were also raised through the auction of military-linked properties. Finally, the NUG earned three billion kyats (USD 1.89 million) from collecting taxes in 38 out of 330 townships across Myanmar.^[11]

The conflict has intensified within the country, and there has been a 361 per cent increase in airstrikes by the military in February-November 2022, according to data collected by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project). Over the same period in 2021, 81 air strikes were conducted by the side of the military. The military was forced to engage in 3,127 clashes with resistance forces, compared to 1,921 clashes over the same period in 2021, a 94 per cent rise in armed conflict. ^[12] In addition, a report by the Ministry of Women, Youths and Children Affairs of the NUG stated that Myanmar’s regime had killed at least 265 children and 414 women since the 2021 coup. The NUG’s ministry reported this week that 13 per cent of the victims are female, and nearly 9 per cent are under-18s, including infants.^[13]

Economic Situation

The World Bank “Myanmar Economic Monitor: Coping with Uncertainty” report described the ongoing struggle in the country to recover from the twin headwinds, COVID-19 and the military coup. The growth is estimated at 3 per cent for the fiscal year ending September 2023, with per capita GDP expected to remain about 13 per cent below its pre-COVID-19 level. The conflict has disrupted business operations, household incomes remain weak, and as a result, nearly 40 per cent of the country now lives below the poverty line. There has also been an increase in opium production. The UNODC estimated that production in 2022 was around 790 tonnes, and potentially as high as 1,200 tonnes, with an expansion in both the amount grown and the yield per hectare. Much of the increase in opium production has occurred in Shan State.^[41] Using a combination of satellite imagery and field reporting, a new UNODC report has found an increase of 33 per cent in opium production since February 2021. ^[15] To stabilise the economy, the Military Council established the Fund for Uplifting of National Economy with 400 billion kyats and a new fund MSME Development Fund for micro, small and medium enterprises, was set up.^[16]

International Developments

Human Rights Watch (HRW), in its report “World Report 2023”, accused Myanmar’s military of war crimes and crimes against humanity since the takeover in February 2021. The report noted that the military had committed mass killings, arbitrary arrests and detention, torture, sexual violence, and attacks on civilians in conflict areas. Furthermore, the military hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid to communities most at risk. The report called for international commitment through targeted sanctions against the military and emphasised the role that Indonesia needs to play as an ASEAN chair.^[17] In another report, HRW accused Japan of transferring over USD one million in 2022 to Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) under the Yokogawa Bridge Corporation project. HRW urged the Japanese government to suspend all ongoing non-humanitarian aid benefitting Myanmar’s military, which has been accused of committing widespread crimes since February 2021.^[18]

The Special Advisory Council on Myanmar also released a report noting that several UN member states continue to sell weapons to the military. Around 13 countries, such as the US, India, France, and Japan, are supplying crucial raw materials and machines to Myanmar’s military for the production of a range of weapons. For instance, high-precision machines made by the Austrian supplier GFM Steyr are used in several locations to manufacture gun barrels. Similarly, raw materials, such as copper and iron from China, have been traced to weapons production in Myanmar. The key components, such as fuses and electric detonators, have been acquired from companies in India and Russia, and the software is believed to originate from Israel and France. The number of factories producing arms in Myanmar has multiplied from around six in 1988 to around 25 factories.^[19]

As the military rule is about to enter its third year, Canada announced amendments to the Special Economic Measures (Burma) Regulations on 31 January. These amendments list an additional six individuals under the Schedule of the Regulations and include a new prohibition on the export, sale, supply or shipment of aviation fuel (wherever situated globally) destined for Myanmar or any person in Myanmar. This is the ninth amendment to the Regulations, and in total, it includes over 150 parties.^[20]

With Indonesia taking over as the ASEAN Chair, on 11 January, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi announced that they would establish a special envoy’s office to enable a national dialogue to address the crisis and allow humanitarian assistance. The official added that ASEAN would also continue to collaborate with the United Nations special envoy in dealing with the Myanmar issue.^[21] In response, Myanmar’s military warned ASEAN not to interfere with its internal matters and warned ASEAN not to “engage with any terrorist groups and unlawful associations [recognised] by the Government of Myanmar”.^[22] In addition, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, during his two-day visit to Indonesia, urged the Myanmar military to implement peace plans drawn up by the regional grouping.^[23]

On the other hand, the meeting between the chief of Thailand’s Defence Forces, Chalermphon Srisawasdi, and Min Aung Hlaing from 19-21 January raised concerns about a uniform approach within the ASEAN members to deal with the Myanmar crisis. The meeting happened shortly after the assets of Min Aung Hlaing’s children and cronies were confiscated in Thailand over their alleged involvement in the illicit drug trade. The annual meeting of both military leaders did not happen in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, despite a Myanmar military offensive on the border raising security concerns, both sides went ahead with the decision to reopen the friendship bridge across Moei River, linking Thailand’s Mae Sot district and Myanmar’s Myawaddy on 16 January. The reopening of the bridge will facilitate the resumption of cross-border activities after three years of closure.^[24]

Earlier during the month, China opened three border gates to Myanmar on 08 January, but Myanmar refused to open the gates on its side of the border following fears resulting from surging COVID-19 infection rates in China. These three border gates, Nandaw, Sinphyu and Manwein, have seen the highest levels of border trade between China and Myanmar.^[25] Furthermore, Bangladesh requested China to discuss the issue with the Myanmar government to resolve the fresh unrest at the Zero Line on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.^[26]

India in Myanmar

As the Myanmar military began airstrikes on Camp Victoria in Chin State, the fallouts of the same could be heard on the border with Mizoram state’s Champhai district near to the camp. As per media reports, at least one shell landed on the Indian side. Due to similar aerial bombardments, tensions have already been reported with Bangladesh and Thailand. However, India hasn’t yet responded in an official manner.^[27] Following the bombings, around 200 Myanmar’s nationals crossed the border into Mizoram.^[28] Myanmar’s NUG has also urged the Indian government and other neighbouring countries to stop military warplanes from using their airspace.^[29] Finally, there are hopes to complete the last 109 km of Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMMTT) project, as IRCON was recently appointed as the Project Management Consultant (PMC).^[30]

Conclusion

Amnesty International accused the military of arbitrarily arresting, torturing and murdering people. Since the coup, more than 3,000 people have been killed, 1.5 million have been internally displaced, and more than 13,000 are still detained in inhumane conditions, with four people executed and at least 138 sentenced to death.^[31] There is a widespread call for increased collective international action ahead of the anniversary on 01 February 2023. There is an immediate need to implement a global arms embargo on Myanmar and cooperating countries such as China and Russia to suspend any direct or indirect supply of arms and ammunition. Even the supply of aviation fuel to Myanmar needs to be restrained to ensure that aviation fuel will not be used to carry out airstrikes. And most importantly, as the elections need to be held by the end of two years of military rule, it is crucial to engage with all stakeholders and ensure there is a re-establishment of an inclusive democratic and federal system in Myanmar.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/myanmar-junta-marks-independence-day-show-force-military-built-capital-3181706
^[2]https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/myanmars-military-junta-takes-step-toward-controversial-election/
^[3]https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-military-proxy-party-gear-up-for-2023-election
^[4]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-census-collection-sparks-deadly-resistance-attacks.html
^[5]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/27/myanmar-military-unveils-strict-new-election-law-ahead-of-polls
^[6]https://www.mizzima.com/article/usdp-chairperson-meets-37-political-parties-naypyitaw
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/with-eye-on-poll-myanmar-military-allied-usdp-meets-charities-social-groups.html
^[8]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/pro-junta-militias-forcing-myanmar-voters-to-attend-election-propaganda-sessions.html
^[9]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/acting-president-2023-will-mark-turning-point-for-myanmars-revolution.html
^[10]https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/all-stakeholders-negotiations-can-succeed-just-take-out-min-aung-hlaing.html
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/revolutionary-armies-demand-unified-attacks-on-myanmar-junta.html
^[11]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/myanmar-shadow-government-raises-131m-to-oppose-junta
^[12]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sham-election-will-only-prolong-myanmar-civil-war-jakarta-post-contributor
^[13]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-continues-to-target-women-and-children-nug.html
^[14]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-opium-production-booming-in-myanmar-after-the-coup-report/
^[15]https://www.miragenews.com/myanmars-economy-under-uncertainty-937157/
^[16]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-allocates-170-billion-kyat-small-and-medium-enterprises
^[17]https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/12/myanmar-abuses-mount-military-coup
^[18]https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/23/myanmar-japans-construction-aid-benefits-junta
^[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64250674
^[20]https://www.globalcompliancenews.com/2023/02/06/https-sanctionsnews-bakermckenzie-com-canada-amends-myanmar-sanctions-6-individuals-targeted-and-new-prohibition-on-aviation-fuel-_02022023/
^[21]https://en.vietnamplus.vn/indonesia-to-establish-office-of-asean-special-envoy-on-myanmar/246919.vnp
^[22]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/asean-01122023175903.html
^[23]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/indonesia-malaysia-agree-to-strengthen-asean-urge-myanmar-to-implement-peace-plans
^[24]The Thai military also ignored the violation of its airspace by a Myanmar MiG 29 fighter jet in June 2022. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-militarys-close-ties-with-myanmar-junta-compromising-asean-efforts-to-resolve-crisis/
^[25]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-junta-keeps-border-gates-china-closed-following-covid-19-surge
^[26]https://www.risingbd.com/english/national/news/92935
^[27]https://www.timesnownews.com/india/myanmar-military-targets-rebel-camp-in-strikes-along-mizoram-border-bombs-hit-indian-village-article-96924842
^[28]https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/mizoram/200-myanmar-refugees-in-mizoram-after-fleeing-strikes-on-border-camp-8385828/
^[29]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-civilian-government-calls-on-neighbors-to-deny-junta-jets-airspace-access.html
^[30]https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/jan/09/new-hope-for-india-myanmar-transit-kaladan-projectwith-new-consultant-2536023.html
^[31]https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/01/myanmar-coup-second-anniversary/

As the country proceeds with the election year 2023, the military and its part Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) are gearing up for elections in 2023, while the National Unity Government is refusing to recognise the elections. The conflict continues between the military and opposition forces, and there is an increasing number of casualties and human displacement. The military court sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to another seven years of prison for corruption charges, with a total of 33 years in prison. During the month, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution asking the military to end violence and release all political prisoners. In the United States, both houses of the legislature passed the BURMA Act, which now awaits President’s approval. Further, due to “no visible progress” on the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, ASEAN excluded the Defence Minister from ASEAN Defence Minister’s meeting. Though, Thailand hosted an informal meeting with Myanmar’s military leaders, along with Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos. Finally, after an informal ceasefire between Arakan Army and Myanmar military, India is speeding up the implementation of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project, but there are increasing concerns because of human and drug trafficking across India-Myanmar borders. The major national and international developments in December 2022 are discussed in the article below.

Domestic and Political Situation

Myanmar’s military replaced village tract and ward administrators in Yangon with members of the military-backed USDP. The move comes after USDP chair U Khin Yin introduced a security framework for party members. Yangon has been the centre of conflict and has witnessed brutal crackdowns and mass arrests of protesters. The details of the replacement were leaked from the Yangon General Administration Department, which stated the department had permitted to replace 72 village tract and ward administrators and 292 hundred-household heads.^[1] China has also launched an outreach to assist the USDP ahead of the elections.

On the other hand, Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG), in an interview with Khmer Times, refused to recognise the elections and claimed that NUG is in control of 60 per cent of the country. He condemned the military Government’s acts of violence and called for ASEAN and other international communities to give them the same support they have been providing to Ukraine. However, he also added that there is room for negotiation and political dialogue but only when the military recognises its fault and “there is punishment for those who committed the hideous crimes”.

Major clashes were reported during the month. The military carried out a three-day attack on Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) base located in Laukkai Township, Shan State. The troops blocked roads and set up checkpoints to search vehicles entering and exiting Laukkai. In 2021, the MNDAA—as part of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee—met with representatives of the Myanmar military, but the agenda and results of the meeting were not disclosed. However, a few days later, the military launched a major offensive against the group in Muse Township. ^[2]

The opposition forces also carried out attacks on the military. On 17 December, the resistance forces attacked a military air base in Yangon’s Hmawbi Township. Hmawbi People’s Defence Force (PDF) and allied resistance groups claimed responsibility for the attack. Since the coup, the military regime has escalated its airstrikes against PDFs, ethnic armed organisations and civilian targets. As the PDFs lacked anti-aircraft missiles, they started targeting military air bases in Yangon, Mandalay and Magwe regions.^[3] Incidents were also reported in Kachin and Mon states and Sagaing, Magwe and Mandalay regions.^[4] The military also suffered heavy casualties in clashes with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Shan State starting on 07 December. After six days of fighting, TNLA gained control of four villages from the military. Later, Myanmar clarified that it was targeting the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), not the TNLA, and on 17 December, the two sides reached an agreement^[5]

In addition, the military is reportedly resupplying its troops in Rakhine State despite an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the military. Furthermore, despite lifting travel restrictions, the regime continues to block the Ponnagyun-Rathedaung and Minbya-Myebon roads and waterways in Ann Township. ^[6] The NUG, on the other hand, invited more people to join the revolution. In the latest call to soldiers, police and civil servants, the NUG asked them to join the revolution as informants if they can’t defect. The NUG issued the invitation because intelligence needs are growing as the revolution accelerates. NUG’s statement promised protection of the Ministry of Defence and rewards for informants depending on the level of information sent. However, this also raises concerns as now the regime would further tighten restrictions on telecoms and closely monitor phone and internet use among its members.^[7]

While the conflicts and violence continue, the military has extended its ceasefire agreement with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) until the end of 2023. The agreement was extended to boost the peace process in Myanmar.^[8] On the contrary, the seven ethnic armed organisations, which are signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), failed to arrange an informal meeting with Myanmar’s regime. The Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), New Mon State Party, Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army Peace Council (KPC), Arakan Liberation Party, Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, Pa-O National Liberation Organisation (PNLO) and Lahu Democratic Union on 07 December proposed a meeting with Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee. Meanwhile, the Karen National Union (KNU), which is a signatory to the NCA but fighting the regime, said it has no plans to hold talks.^[9]

During the month, the final hearings of the Aung San Suu Kyi case were held, and she was sentenced to 33 years of prison in total. In the recent hearing, she was sentenced to seven years on five charges of corruption, thereby totalling 33 years in prison. ^[10] Meanwhile, in her first public comments, she said she was proud of young Burmese people and all those struggling to defend and fight for democracy. The message was shared via her Australian former economic adviser, Sean Turnell, who was released by the regime in November 2021. In an interview with News 10, he said he met Suu Kyi when they were sentenced.^[11]

The month also marked the celebration of the founding of the Myanmar Air Force and Navy. The Chairman of the State Planning and Administration Council, Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, General Min Aung Hlaing, opened the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Myanmar Air Force and Navy, in which new aircraft and helicopters were commissioned into service. The major attraction this year was the acquisition of the Sukhoi Su-30SME fourth-generation multi-purpose fighter aircraft.^[12] In addition to the 75th anniversary of Myanmar’s independence celebrations in January 2023, the State Administration Council issued two types of new gold coins; a tical and a half-tical (one tical is approximately equivalent to 16.33 grams).^[13]

Economic and Social Situation

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, divested from Yoma Bank after its business with military companies was exposed, according to Justice For Myanmar (JFM). In 2020, Yoma Bank extended a loan to Pinnacle Asia, a Myanmar company owned by Khin Thiri Thet Mon, daughter of military chief Min Aung Hlaing. The loan funded the company’s construction of telecom towers for the military-owned mobile operator, Mytel. IFC has now sold its 4.5 percent stake in Yoma Bank to First Myanmar Investment (FMI) for USD 5 million.^[14]

As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, there has reportedly been a rise in the cost of fertilisers leading to a shortage in the production of food in Myanmar. Myanmar farmers rely on imported fertiliser, and its rising international prices, along with the devaluation of the kyat, have driven up the prices of agricultural inputs. The International Food Policy Research Institute reported that Myanmar’s rice productivity dropped 2.1per cent during last year’s monsoon season. Yields declined significantly in Kayah and Chin states, both affected by conflict and high costs of inputs. IFPRI said the prices of fertiliser based on urea increased by 56per cent and the mechanisation costs rose by 19 per cent, while the paddy prices at the farm rose by just 8per cent. In a separate survey of millers, IFPRI reported that 91per cent of the millers stated limited access to electricity and affordable fuel as their most significant disruptions, leading to a decline in output by 20per cent. However, the regime’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation said that the country was sufficiently producing, and the country expects to grow over 17 million acres of paddy in the current fiscal year.^[15]

As a result of continued violent attacks, Myanmar nationals have travelled across waters to reach a safe place. This month Sri Lanka Navy rescued 104 distressed Myanmar nationals aboard a passenger vessel in Sri Lanka’s waters. The distressed vessel is reported to have trespassed due to a mechanical failure while it was carrying passengers from Myanmar to Indonesia.^[16] Malaysia, on the other hand, lifted the stay on deportation of Myanmar nationals. The court lifted a stay on the deportation of 114 Myanmar nationals, clearing the legal obstacles to their deportation and raising concerns about the likely threats to their safety if sent back to Myanmar. In February 2021, the Malaysian court imposed a stay to delay the deportation of 1,200 Myanmar nationals, which the government ignored. Despite the High Court imposing a temporary stay, the government deported 1,086 people. The 114 were left behind in immigration detention because they had tested positive for COVID-19.^[17]

During the month, three more Burmese journalists were sentenced to prison. The latest victim is Soe Yarzar Tun, a Yangon-based freelancer who was sentenced by the special court inside Yangon’s Insein prison on 16 December to four years in prison with hard labour under Section 52 (a) of the Counter-Terrorism Law.^[18] While the cases of human trafficking have increased across Myanmar borders, Brigadier General Aung Htay Myint, head of the Transnational Crime Division, reported that they successfully prevented 81 cases of human trafficking, helping a total of 840 people between 2020 and 2021. He revealed the information during the 5th inter-ministerial meeting of the Coordinated Mekong Ministerial Initiative against Trafficking – COMMIT, which took on via video link at the Myanmar Police Force headquarters. The meeting was attended by representatives from COMMIT countries — Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam and officials from the COMMIT Secretariat. The meeting was chaired by Thailand, and the member countries discussed the development of the Transn,ational Referral Mechanism (TRM) and the designing of a Mekong sub-regional work plan.a href=”#_edn19″ name=”_ednref19″>^[19]

International Developments

The major development during the month was the adoption of the resolution on Myanmar by the United Nations Security Council. On 21 December, the 15-member council adopted a resolution which demanded an end to violence and called on the country’s military rulers to release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. 12 members voted in favour, but India, China and Russia abstained. The resolution was first tabled in September 2021 by the United Kingdom. The language of the resolution was widely debated to avoid any veto against it from Russia and China.^[20]

The Myanmar military, however, rejected the resolution and accused the UNSC of trying to “destabilise” the country. The military released a statement which stated that the resolution includes “several intrusive elements on Myanmar’s internal affairs that contravene the principles and purposes of the United Nations” and instead claimed that the situation in Myanmar was “solely internal affairs” of the country and “in no way poses any risk to international peace and security.” ^[21] During the month, the United Nations General Assembly Credentials Committee agreed to uphold the status of Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun as the permanent representative of Myanmar to the United Nations. Kyaw Moe Tun was appointed to his position in 2020, but since the military takeover, the military has made numerous attempts to remove him from this position.^[22]

Another major international development was the passing of the BURMA Act by both houses of the United States (US) legislature as part of the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA). The act aims to provide non-military aid to the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) and its affiliate organisations, including the National Unity Consultative Council, the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) and ethnic armed organisations (EAO). The Burma Act also authorises measures to prevent the military regime from acquiring weapons and expands sanctions against military businesses. The act authorises political support for establishing federalism, as well as humanitarian aid and technical support for anti-military forces. It also promises action against perpetrators of war crimes. The NDAA will help the Myanmar people if brought into law after signing by US President Joe Biden.^[23] The US also included Myanmar on the list of 12 countries that are of “particular concern” for religious freedom violations. They reported that the Christian minorities now face persecution similar to what the Rohingya have faced. ^[24]

Canada became the first country to impose sanctions on Myanmar military jet fuel suppliers, Asia Sun Group, a Myanmar conglomerate. Asia Sun Group is a local partner of the Myanmar military and is involved in procuring, storing and distributing jet fuel. Asia Sun Group’s role in the Myanmar military’s jet fuel supply chain was detailed in the Amnesty International report, Deadly Cargo, with research supported by Justice For Myanmar. In the past few months, the military conducted indiscriminate airstrikes to wage war against anti-military revolutions. Canada also sanctioned key Myanmar military arms brokers, Dynasty International Company Limited and International Gateways Group. The groups have also been sanctioned by the US and UK.^[25]

The European Union also excluded Myanmar from the representation at the meeting in Brussels with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on 14 December. Since the coup, the EU has imposed rounds of sanctions on Min Aung Hlaing and military-controlled conglomerates and companies, the latest ones being in November 2022.^[26] In addition, the EU has allocated around 6.5 million Euros for the support of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in its efforts to tackle the humanitarian food crisis in Myanmar.^[27]
Furthermore, ASEAN excluded Myanmar from the ASEAN Defence Minister’s meeting. Defence Minister from major ASEAN events due to “no visible progress” on the implementation of the 5PC<^[28] Even Prak Sokhonn, ASEAN’s Special Envoy on Myanmar, cancelled his third announced trip to the country. While it is reported that the visit is cancelled due to time constraints as he has to attend the ASEAN-EU Commemorative Summit in Brussels, it rather reflects growing tensions between the regional bloc and Myanmar’s military regime.^[29] However, Thailand, in contrast, has tried to maintain relations with the military as usual. Thailand hosted interested members of ASEAN to an open-ended consultative meeting on the situation in Myanmar on 22 December. Government ministers of Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam met with military representatives to “find pathways towards a return to normalcy”. Myanmar Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin attended along with Kan Zaw, Minister for Investment and Foreign Economic Relations, and Ko Ko Hlaing, Minister for International Cooperation. However, the meeting was not attended by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines.^[30] Later the NUG strongly urged ASEAN not to waver from its policy of excluding the country’s military leaders from its meetings.^[31]

Furthermore, Thailand’s newly appointed Ambassador to Myanmar, Mongkol Visitstump, presented his credentials to the State Administration Council and Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing on 07 December. He discussed a wide range of issues in bilateral ties, including trade, investment and tourism. The ambassador later met with Soe Win and discussed the long-delayed Dawei Deep Sea project.^[32] Thailand also did not officially open any temporary safe zones along the border and did not make any official records of new refugees arriving from Myanmar, further pushing back the Myanmar nationals into the country.

China’s engagement with the Myanmar military gets closer as China delivered six FTC-2000G fighter jets to the regime’s air force. The six fighter jets are currently being checked over at Meiktila airbase in Mandalay Region. The deal for the fighter jets was signed in January 2022, with each fighter plane costing about USD 9 million. Pilots, engineers and armament officers of the Myanmar Air Force visited China in June 2022. These visits relate to the training of the MAF personnel.^[33] The month also witnessed the visit of Pakistan Colonel Imran Khan to Myanmar to discuss military cooperation. The two-day visit was from 29 November-01 December. A 10-member team from the Myanmar Air Force (MAF) is currently in Pakistan undergoing training on precision targeting in air operations and on the JF-17 jet fighter.^[34]

Moreover, on 02 December, a forum on China-Myanmar economic cooperation was held to enhance economic and investment cooperation between the two countries. The forum was organised by the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) with the theme “China’s New Development and China-Myanmar Cooperation”. According to Myanmar’s Ministry of Commerce, during the first half of the 2022-23 fiscal year, China was Myanmar’s largest trading partner.^[35] Also, the China-funded Kyaukphyu Anargat (Future) Mobile Clinic project in Myanmar’s Rakhine State entered its final stage in December. The project is already providing free healthcare services to around 1,500 villagers.^[36]

During the month, the second Russian trade delegation visited Myanmar to boost bilateral economic ties. Russian economic development minister Maxim Reshetnikov met Min Aung Hlaing and his ministers and signed seven agreements. Min Aung Hlaing and Reshetnikov discussed technical cooperation in arable and livestock farming and iron and steel, pharmaceuticals, mining and energy production. They also discussed the formation of Myanmar-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Associations in Myanmar and plans to boost bilateral cultural cooperation. In addition, the third Intergovernmental Russian-Myanmar Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation was held in Naypyidaw.^[37]

India and Myanmar

After the informal ceasefire between Arakan Army and Myanmar military, India is pushing for the finalisation of its transport project linking the two countries. Indian Consul Jay Krishna met military-appointed Rakhine State Chief Minister Dr Aung Kyaw Min and discussed the official opening of the Sittwe seaport and its Kaladan River route inland through Rakhine’s Kyauktaw to Paletwa in Chin State. They also discussed the incomplete section of the project — a two-lane highway running 109 kilometres from Paletwa to Zorinpui on the Myanmar-India border. The sea-river-road transport route will link Kolkata with Sittwe Port over the Bay of Bengal.^[38]

During the month, the Assam Rifles seized 600 Kg of Brown Sugar in Manipur’s Chandel district bordering Myanmar.^[39] Given the rise in the number of seizures along the India-Myanmar border, the Manipur government stated that it set up more outposts. Manipur Chief Minister inaugurated the Sangaithel police outpost in Imphal West district and said that more outposts would also be set up along the India-Myanmar border to check illegal immigration, smuggling activities, and cross-border crimes.^[40] The Indian Government is also planning to fence a few spaces of the India-Myanmar border, but several local organisations from Manipur are raising objections against the scheme. The issue was raised in the Indian Parliament on 14 December by Manipur’s representative, Leishemba Sanajaoba. The United Committee Manipur (UCM), an apex body of 32 civil society organisations in Manipur, warned that an agitation opposing the move would be launched if the government goes ahead with the fencing project. The UCM alleged that Myanmar had encroached around 5 km into Manipur along Border Pillar 103 after a visit to the spot by a team of the apex body. According to the annual report of the Indian Home Ministry, only 136 km at the Lohit sub-sector in Arunachal Pradesh and 35 km at Kabaw Valley in Manipur are “undemarcated”.^[41]

Way Forward

Marking World Human Rights Day, 08 December 2022, Tom Andrews, the UN Rapporteur for Human Rights in Myanmar, urged the world countries to take robust actions for the people of Myanmar. There have also been calls for the British government to refer Myanmar to the International Criminal Court, as it did with Ukraine. ^[42] As Myanmar inches closer to the elections in 2023, it is important that all stakeholders are involved in the discussion to conduct free and fair elections. The increasing violence and conflict between the military and opposition forces are creating humanitarian loss and economic and social harm to citizens, which needs immediate attention. Myanmar itself needs to find solutions within its own social and political structures to address this crisis.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-militarys-proxy-usdp-taking-control-of-yangon-administrations.html
^[2] he MNDAA is also a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/military-launches-major-assault-on-kokang-base-on-china-myanmar-border
^[3]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-air-base-in-yangon-attacked-by-resistance-for-second-time.html
^[4] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmar-resistance-inflicts-more-casualties-on-junta-forces.html
^[5]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-calls-taang-army-battle-a-misunderstanding.html
^[6]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/rakhine-ceasefire-enables-myanmar-junta-to-resupply-troops.html
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nug-issues-appeal-for-more-myanmar-junta-informants.html
^[8]https://en.vietnamplus.vn/myanmar-extends-ceasefire-until-end-of-2023/246438.vnp
^[9]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-snubs-pro-regime-armed-groups-call-for-peace-talks.html
^[10]https://www.outlookindia.com/international/aung-san-suu-kyi-sentenced-to-33-year-prison-by-myanmar-court-what-are-the-many-corruption-charges-news-249716
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmars-daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-praises-young-anti-junta-resistance-fighters.html
^[12] https://www.scramble.nl/military-news/myanmar-air-force-day
^[13]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-regime-navy-handed-five-vessels-to-attack-resistance-groups.html
^[14]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ifc-divests-from-yoma-bank-after-myanmar-military-links-exposed.html
^[15]https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/high-production-costs-deny-farmers-benefits-of-high-rice-prices/
^[16]https://srilankamirror.com/uncategorized/sl-navy-rescues-104-distressed-myanmar-nationals/
^[17]https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/malaysian-court-lifts-stay-on-deportation-of-myanmar-nationals/
^[18]https://rsf.org/en/rsf-calls-tougher-sanctions-against-myanmar-s-junta-after-three-more-journalists-get-prison
^[19]https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/18/81-human-trafficking-cases-prevented-in-myanmar-between-2020-and-2021
^[20]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/22/un-security-council-resolution-demands-end-to-myanmar-violence
^[21]https://www.laprensalatina.com/myanmar-junta-says-un-resolution-aimed-at-destabilizing-country/
^[22]https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-un-ambassador-reportedly-renewed-for-another-year-despite-junta-s-opposition/6873801.html
^[23]https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/uss-burma-act-is-an-ultimatum-to-myanmar-regime.html
^[24]The other eleven countries on the blacklist are China, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Nicaragua and North Korea for having engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom under the International Religious Freedom Act 1998. https://www.ucanews.com/news/myanmar-remains-on-us-religious-freedom-blacklist/99631
^[25]https://www.mizzima.com/article/canada-sanctions-myanmar-jet-fuel-suppliers
^[26]https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/europe-and-asean-should-work-together-on-myanmar-crisis/
^[27]https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/wfp-says-it-received-7mln-from-eu-to-tackle-1606407.html
^[28]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/1197603/new-narrative-nug-claims-it-controls-60-of-myanmar/
^[29]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/asean-envoy-scraps-planned-third-visit-to-myanmar.html
^[30]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/thailand-to-host-non-asean-meeting-on-myanmar.html
^[31]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-minister-attend-talks-hosted-by-thailand-key-asean-players-absent-2022-12-22/
^[32]https://www.thaipbsworld.com/prayut-government-maintained-close-ties-with-myanmar-junta-in-2022-despite-repression/
^[33]Designed and manufactured by Guizhou Aviation Industry Corporation under the supervision of state-owned aerospace and defence firm Aviation Industry Corporation of China, the FTC-2000G is a light multi-role trainer and combat aircraft. It is capable of carrying up to 3 tons of missiles, rockets or bombs and is tasked mainly with airstrikes against ground targets, according to aerospace news portal Defence World. It can also be used for flight training, aerial surveillance, patrol missions, reconnaissance, electronic warfare, close-in air support, and air escort missions. The FTC-2000G is in service with the Navy and Air Force of the People’s Liberation Army and costs US$8.5 million per unit. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-takes-delivery-of-ftc-2000g-fighter-jets-from-china.html
^[34]The training is believed to be an attempt to fix the problems that have left the MAF’s JF-17s grounded due to technical malfunctions. Myanmar bought 16 JF-17s from China. The first batch of six aircraft was delivered in 2018, but details about the delivery date for the other 10 remain unclear. Myanmar was the first country to buy the JF-17. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-and-pakistan-boost-military-ties.html
^[35]https://english.news.cn/20221203/05b83243386b4a4b85fe0f559ee10d22/c.html
^[36]Designed by the China International Trust Investment Corporation (CITIC) Consortium and funded by the Yunnan Aid, the mobile clinic project was being implemented by the local civil society organisation Kyaukphyu Socio-Economic Development Assistance Association (KSEDAA) https://english.news.cn/20221225/901aae31441645598734361054399504/c.html
^[37]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/russian-trade-delegation-signs-seven-agreements-with-myanmar-junta.html
^[38]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/india-and-myanmar-junta-using-rakhine-truce-to-finalize-trade-corridor.html
^[39]https://nenow.in/north-east-news/manipur/manipur-assam-rifles-seizes-rs-42-lakh-worth-drugs-along-indo-myanmar-border.html
^[40]https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=1033549
^[41]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/civil-society-groups-in-indias-manipur-oppose-plan-to-fence-part-of-border-with-myanmar.html
^[42]https://www.mizzima.com/article/un-official-denounces-international-double-standards-over-myanmar-and-ukraine

The ongoing conflict in the country between the military and opposition forces has resulted in a number of deaths and causalities and increasing human rights violations. The military forces are accused of killing around 1300 people and arresting more than 10,000 individuals. The UN Security Council has called for an end to violence in Myanmar. More than 500 rights groups have urged the United Nations (UN) to stop Myanmar army offensives. The military is also accused of blocking aid to displaced civilians. During the month, Myanmar also confirmed its first case of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

Domestic and Political Situation

On 10 December, Human Rights Day, a “silent strike” was organised to shutdown towns and cities as a sign of rejection of the military rule. Earlier also, a silent strike was organised on 24 March to disapprove of the military’s coup. In addition, a “Black Campaign” was also staged as individuals posted their pictures wearing black and flashing three-finger salutes of resistance. ^[1]

Myanmar’s many regions, such as the Sagaing region, Karen State, Shan State, and Kayah State, witnessed violent clashes between the military and ethnic parties.^[2] The Karen Peace Support Network (KPSN) released a report outlining human rights abuses; including helicopter gunship attacks against civilian targets, arbitrary abductions and use of civilians as human shields in Mutraw district.^[3] The ethnic Kokang army clashed with Myanmar’s military in Shan State. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is also fighting around Kokang, Mongkoe and Hsenwi to gain control to the west of Salween River.^[4]

The military is also resorting to old tactics and creating anti-Muslim and anti-Christian tensions. ^[5] According to International Christian Concern (ICC) reports, many incidents against Christians in Chin State are recorded, comprising 90 per cent of the Christian population. Myanmar is positioned at 19 on Open Doors 2021 World Watch List of places that are most difficult to be a Christian.^[6] Myanmar military continues to burn houses and churches in the Chin State. The Chin Human Rights Organisation reported burning of the Thantlang town in Myanmar’s Chin State. According to Chin Human Rights Organization (CHRO), the Assembly of God Church and one of the Thantlang Association of Baptist Church buildings and many others were burned down by the military on 30 December. Further, a township court in Rakhine State sentenced 199 people (most of whom are Rohingya Muslims) to five years in prison under the Immigration Act for “illegally trying to migrate” to Malaysia. ^[7]

On the one hand, the military is attacking EAOs, and on the other hand, the military regime met with members of the Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC), excluding a few, in Shan State. The meeting was with a view to re-establish links with the EAOs. It has also been reported that China had aided in negotiations between the Myanmar military and members of the FPNCC. A representative from China was present at the meeting. ^[8] However, the same day, the military attacked the Karen peace town Lay Kay Kaw in Myawaddy Township, controlled by the Karen National Liberation Army Brigade 6. Earlier, the FPNCC member group MNDAA was attacked by a helicopter in Muse District in northern Shan State. ^[9]

The NUG is also taking steps to cooperate with different EAOs and providing them with military training and support. For instance, on 12 December, Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the NUG, stated that they would like to work with the Arakan National League (ULA/AA) to overthrow the military dictatorship. Earlier, on 10 December, the Arakan Army (AA) warned the people that fighting could break out in Rakhine State and therefore, the people should be alert.^[10]

The military recalled former service members to military duty as many soldiers are defecting. Former military dictator Senior General Than Shwe, rejoined the military, who had stepped down in 2011. ^[11] The country is also reeling under economic crises. During the month, it has been reported that the military is printing notes to address the monetary deficit. According to sources, an Uzbekistan Airways plane carried paper to print banknotes. ^[12] Further, on 24 December, the Myanmar military leader commissioned airplanes and helicopters marking the 74th anniversary of Myanmar Navy. Within this, Myanmar commissioned China’s Type 35B Ming-class submarine aka ‘UMS Minye Kyaw Htin’.^[13] Myanmar’s military has also sought China’s assistance to build an internet firewall to curb the spread of information against the military.

This month, Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to a four-year jail on the first of the series of charges filed against her. However, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing reduced the four-year sentence to two years of house arrest. She faces ten other charges that could sentence her for the rest of her life. ^[14] In the case of possession and illegal importation of walkie-talkies, the verdict has been postponed until 10 January 2022. Further, during the month, another letter claimed to be by Suu Kyi was leaked, which stated that neither the CRPH nor the NUG is entitled to use the name of the NLD. But the authenticity of the letter is hard to prove.

International Responses

Justice For Myanmar called for an investigation and a global arms embargo over arms and military aircraft being sold to the Myanmar military. The report highlighted the involvement of the UN Security Council members including France, Russia, China, Holland and Italy in supporting the Myanmar military. ^[15] In addition, the United States with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, and the United Kingdom called for the international community to “suspend all operational support to the military”. The US is also exploring additional sanctions against the ruling military rulers in Myanmar.^[16] Further, the European Union (EU) has stopped renting its official ambassador’s residence from the family of late Myanmar dictator General Ne Win after eight years. ^[17]

A UK-based NGO submitted evidence to the International Criminal Court (ICC) under Article 15 of the Rome Statute. The evidence proves that Myanmar military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is guilty of crimes against humanity. Under the Myanmar Accountability Project (MAP), the organisation urged the court to open a criminal investigation into the widespread and systematic use of torture as part of the regime’s violent crackdown against the protest movement in the country. Similarly, the NUG is also working to prosecute Myanmar’s military at the ICC. Furthermore, despite the military ruling authority numerous attempts to replace envoy of the previous NLD government at the UN, the nine-nation Credentials Committee of the General Assembly deferred a decision on applications.^[18]

During the month, Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Senmet Myanmar’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wunna Maung Lwin, in Phnom Penh on 07 December. Hun Sen will assume the chairmanship of ASEAN next year, and he stated that he would visit Myanmar in the year 2022. ASEAN members denied Myanmar’s military attendance at the ASEAN Summit and the ASEAN-China Summit due to “insufficient progress” on implementing the peace plan. However, Hun Sen justified his engagement stating that Myanmar is a “family member of ASEAN” and therefore, it is essential to work with authorities of Myanmar. Hun Sen’s adoption of “cowboy diplomacy”, a term referring to risky and harsh diplomatic tactics, has worried the regional partners.^[19]

Following the explosion that landed on the Thailand side, Thailand warned that it would return fire if more artillery shells by the Myanmar military landed again in Thailand. Thailand has also deployed troops along the Thai-Myanmar border and is conducting regular patrols. ^[20] Further, due to the increasing fleeing of individuals from Myanmar, Thailand has sent over 600 Myanmar refugees back across the border. ^[21] To date, around 2500 people have fled due to intense fighting between the Myanmar military and Karen National Union (KNU). ^[22]

Further, Japan has been condemned by Human Rights Groups for training Myanmar military cadets. According to the Defence Ministry Official, the National Defence Academy of Japan was still hosting eight cadets from Myanmar. The Human Rights Watch has suggested that the Japanese government cut ties with the Myanmar military and immediately suspend military study-abroad program involving Myanmar cadets.^[23] Also, Japan’s Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa has said that Japan will continue to work for the repatriation of Myanmar nationals who have been forcibly displaced from Bangladesh. ^[24]

India in Myanmar

In the first such outreach since February 2021, India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla visited Naypyitaw and Yangon and met State Administration Council (SAC) chaired by General Min Aung Hlaing. As part of humanitarian support, India has provided 10 lakh doses of ‘Made in India’ COVID-19 vaccines and grant of 10,000 tonnes of rice and wheat to Myanmar. He also met members of civil society and political parties, including the NLD. However, the request to meet Aung San Suu Kyi was denied. ^[25] Before the visit, the Myanmar military handed over five militants of banned Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF) to India. RPF is the sister wing of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). A police official, on condition of anonymity, said that a special flight brought the five Manipur-based RPF militants from Myanmar and handed them over to Manipur police. ^[26]

However, varied accounts were reported about the visit outcomes. The State-run Myanmar News Agency reported that the two discussed how the Myanmar military could discharge its State responsibilities, take efforts for counter-terrorism, and ensuring peace and stability in the border regions of both countries. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Foreign Secretary had “emphasised India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence.” However, no comment was made on the difference between the statements issued in Yangon and New Delhi.^[27]

Conclusion

Data from ACLED, analysed by Altsean Burma, shows a 632 per cent increase in armed clashes and attacks compared to 2020. However, the prevalence of violence cannot be the answer to the current crisis. Myanmar is experiencing one of the worst crises since its independence. Furthermore, the new variant of COVID-19 can expose the country’s health care system to risks. According to the United Nations emergency relief coordinator, three million people across Myanmar need life-saving humanitarian assistance because of rising conflict and insecurity, the pandemic, and a failing economy. The military is also accused of blocking humanitarian aid from reaching displaced people. The military has imposed new travel restrictions on humanitarian workers, blocked access roads and aid convoys, destroyed non-military supplies, attacked aid workers and shut down telecommunications services. Therefore, the military must reverse its actions and engage in constructive dialogue with all stakeholders.

Endnotes:

^[1]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-set-to-shut-down-with-silent-strike-to-defy-junta.html
^[2]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/eleven-villagers-shot-and-burned-alive-by-myanmar-soldiers-reports-say
^[3]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/1/myanmar-army-helicopter-attacks-force-thousands-to-flee
^[4]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/kokang-armed-group-reports-escalating-fighting-with-myanmar-junta.html
^[5]https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/divide-and-rule-myanmar-junta-weaponising-racial-tensions-20211203-p59eid.html

Burmese Army Fires Weapons Targeting Churches in Chin State

^[6]https://thealabamabaptist.org/two-pastors-killed-christians-targeted-by-burmese-army/
^[7]https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/more-than-100-rohingya-fleeing-persecution-in-rakhine-state-sentenced-to-five-years-in-prison
^[8]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-facilitates-myanmar-junta-and-ethnic-armies-talks.html
^[9]Other members of the FPNCC include the United Wa State Army and the Arakan Army. None of the seven groups has signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. However, the KNLA’s political arm, the Karen National Union, signed the peace agreement in 2015 and the Burma Army is still attacking its troops. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/junta-meets-fpncc-mongla
^[10]https://www.mizzima.com/article/national-unity-government-nug-makes-overtures-aa-overthrow-military
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/junta-watch-coup-leaders-wife-draws-public-ire-suu-kyis-new-charge-and-more.html
^[12]https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/economy/uzbek-plane-supplies-myanmar-junta-with-banknote-paper.html
^[13] https://www.naval-technology.com/news/myanmar-commissions-type-35b-submarine/
^[14]https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/a-new-politics-is-taking-shape-in-myanmar.html
^[15]https://www.mizzima.com/article/un-security-council-members-complicit-arms-sales-myanmar-military-junta-ngo
^[16]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the-us-is-exploring-additional-steps-against-myanmars-military-leaders-blinken-says.html
^[17]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/eu-stops-renting-residence-from-former-myanmar-dictators-family.html
^[18]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/americas/united-nations-taliban-myanmar.html
^[19]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/cambodias-cowboy-diplomacy-in-myanmar-isolates-asean
^[20]https://www.mizzima.com/article/thailand-warns-myanmar-it-will-return-fire-if-more-artillery-shells-land-its-territory-again
^[21]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-sends-refugees-back-myanmar-clashes-continue-2021-12-19/
^[22]https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2021/12/18/more-than-2500-flee-to-thailand-as-rebels-clash-with-myanmar-army-gets-more-heated-up
^[23] https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/12/21/japan-cut-defense-ties-myanmar-military
^[24]https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/japan-assures-repatriation-displaced-citizens-myanmar-337921
^[25]https://theprint.in/world/india-provides-10-lakh-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines-10000-tonnes-of-rice-and-wheat-to-myanmar/786263/
^[26]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/myanmar-army-hands-over-5-militants-to-manipur-police/articleshow/88304702.cms
^[27]https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/myanmar-statement-on-shringla-visit-differs-from-indian-line-on-restoring-democracy/article38030897.ece

08 November 2021 marked the anniversary of the November 2020 elections, which resulted in the landmark victory of the National League for Democracy party. However, the military coup in February 2021 led to a set-back in this democratic transition process. Under the banner of the Spring Revolution, the citizens of Myanmar are demanding the restoration of democratically elected leaders. Voices are being raised against the violent and forced military rule. The People’s Defence Forces and other Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) are responding to military violence with stronger force. The military is also said to be suffering from losses, and the number of deserters is increasing day by day. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the military has killed more than 1200 civilians. Aung San Suu Kyi has been further pressed with more charges, totalling 11, which could sentence her to 102 years in prison. International reactions have increased and Myanmar’s military leaders are being questioned at the international stage. However, some countries have started negotiating with the military leaders to ensure the continuance of relations.

Political and Domestic Situation

On 24 November, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Prime Minister and Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) stated that the military has taken over the entire responsibilities of the State and is working on the five-point road map. He further stated that the pattern of democratic transition in the country depends on the country’s situation and socio-economic development. He reiterated the provisions stated in the 2008 constitution to transition to a multi-party democracy.^[1]

The military rulers are confident they can wipe out armed civilian resistance against them in three months. With the withdrawal of the rainy season, the military regime deployed thousands of troops in the Chin State, Sagaing and Magwe regions of Myanmar. As a result, the Human Rights Watch provided evidence of multiple active fires in Chin State after reviewing thermal anomaly data collected by an environmental satellite sensor (VIIRS). On 29 October 2021, thermal anomalies were detected for the first time. While the human rights groups and media blamed the military, the military spokesperson, Gen. Zaw Min Tun, claimed that the Chinland Defence Force had set the houses on fire. Because of the ongoing fights, Thantlang has been nearly uninhabited since September.^[2] On 01 November, the Three Brother Alliance, including the Kachin Independence Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and AA, condemned the military artillery strikes on Thantlang region.

Fortify Rights conducted interviews of displaced people and humanitarian workers along with members of the military. The group reported that the military committed war crimes in the Karenni State by arresting humanitarian workers and destroying food stocks meant for displaced people. Further, the military delayed travel authorisation for international aid workers, set up roadblocks, and confiscated aid supplies. Similar accounts have been reported in other parts of the country, especially in Chin and the Sagaing region.^[3]

The confrontations were also reported between the military and the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State. Villagers reported that the military sent reinforcement troops to the region after the alleged clash.^[4] After the armed conflict, the AA released 15 captives arrested on humanitarian grounds. It has been suggested that the release was done after the visit of Yohei Sasakawa, Japan’s Special Envoy to Myanmar. Mr Sasakawa had previously attended a virtual meeting with the AA.^[5]

Many assassinations took place during the month. One of the most prominent ones was the assassination of Thein Aung, Chief Finance of Mytel Telecommunications, a military-linked telecommunications company. Mytel provides revenue to the military government and is a major target of the anti-military forces. As a result, it has been boycotted by the consumers and local media have reported that more than 80 of its cellphone towers have been destroyed to date.^[6]

As a result of confrontations, the military has suffered its heaviest losses, with 1300 soldiers killed and 463 injured in clashes. The country’s shadow National Unity Government’s (NUG) Defence Ministry reported that the military casualties are almost double the number the regime suffered in September.^[7] Further, even though the military defectors are a small percentage, the number of defectors has contributed to a growing crisis among the troops. As a result, the military is unable to recruit new soldiers. The military has recalled all retirees, and the soldiers’ wives have been ordered to provide security for the bases.^[8]

To coordinate between civilian resistance forces and allied EAOs, the NUG declared the formation of a command structure. Many members of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) reported a lack of adequate weapons and commanders. The objective of the new command structure will be to control the spread of arms and weaponry in the country.

The NUG also started selling bonds to fund the revolutionary movement with a target to raise at least USD 800 million. On the opening day itself, it raised USD 6.3 million.^[9] Further, the NUG blacklisted two military-controlled conglomerates – Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and their subsidiaries. The NUG’s Commerce Ministry stated that the military-owned companies committed high treason and controlled numerous businesses by abusing military power and exerting undue influence.^[10]

International Reactions

The civil rights groups have called for a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting to stop escalating violence in Myanmar’s Chin State. The Human Rights Watch released a statement on behalf of 521 international and domestic organisations.^[11] The United States (US) also condemned the Myanmar military’s use of violence in Chin State and called for urgent international action to hold the military accountable.^[12] As a result, the UNSC expressed “deep concern” over the intensifying armed clashes and violence in Myanmar. The council’s 15 members issued a statement calling for an immediate end to the fighting and for the military to exercise “utmost restraint”.^[13] Further, Nicholas Koumjian, head of Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, stated that there is a widespread systematic attack on civilians “amounting to crimes against humanity” which in turn is based on the preliminary evidence collected since the military seized power.^[14]

Bill Richardson, the American ex-diplomat, visited Myanmar during the month after the invitation of the military’s foreign minister, U Wunna Maung Lwin. The US State Department welcomed Mr Richardson’s trip. He claimed the visit to be largely successful as US journalist Danny Fenster was released from the prison, and his efforts helped increase access to humanitarian aid and vaccines for Myanmar and resumption of Red Cross visits to the country’s prisons. Previously, Richardson had made numerous visits to Myanmar since the 1990s. However, no promises were made by General Min Aung Hlaing during their talks. Mark Farmaner, Director, Burma Campaign UK, was critical of Mr. Richardson for not securing the release of other prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi.^[15]

Senior officials from China, Japan and Thailand also visited Myanmar to meet Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Sun Guoxiang, the Special Envoy of Asian Affairs of the China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yohei Sasakawa, Japan’s Special Envoy for national reconciliation in Myanmar, and Don Pramudwinai, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister visited the country during the month. Mr Sasakawa discussed the current situation and the peace process in Myanmar and Japan’s assistance to the country. He also visited camps for internally displaced Rohingya in Sittwe and met with Arakan National Party representatives. However, the details of the visit were not discussed.^[16]

Myanmar’s military leaders’ five-member delegation was refused permission to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference – COP-26. The delegation was led by Ambassador Tun Aung Kyaw of the Myanmar Embassy in London. Myanmar’s shadow NUG attempt to send a delegation was also rejected.^[17] Due to the ongoing crises, it has been argued that the country is losing opportunities because of non-participation at meetings on important issues. On the other hand, the military delegation participated in the 89th Interpol General Assembly in Istanbul, Turkey. Than Hlaing led the delegation, who was appointed deputy home affairs minister in February. Canada, the EU, UK and US have sanctioned Than Hlaing for his role in overseeing the military’s crackdown on the public, in which more than 1200 civilians have been killed and more than 10000 were arrested.^[18]

The United Nations adopted a resolution on Rohingya titled “the Situation of Human Rights of Rohingya Muslims and Other Minorities in Myanmar”. The resolution was jointly tabled by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the European Union (EU). The resolution welcomed the appointment of the new Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar and requested a work plan for her engagements in Myanmar. It also called for effective implementation of the MoU between Myanmar, the UNHCR and the UND^[19]P.

Chinese projects in Myanmar are again at high risk as they face protests from the local population. Apart from the issue of maintaining no transparency and accountability in implementing these projects, the issue of forcible land acquisition has surfaced. The preparations have started to seize 250 acres of land in the proposed Kyaukphyu KPSEZ industrial zone. The 250 acres of land belong to more than 70 local farmers from four village tracts. And now it has been revealed that out of those 250 acres of land, 60 acres belong to three unknown people who registered these land plots under Myanmar’s land ownership law. There is an allegation that 22 local farmers are illegally occupying the land. Similar incident was earlier reported during the construction of the offshore Shwe Gas field and pipeline project.^[20]

India’s Engagements with Myanmar

Armed militants ambushed the Assam Rifles convoy in Manipur’s Churachandpur district and killed five soldiers, including Colonel Viplav Tripathi, his wife and their eight-year-old son. The Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF) and Manipur’s Naga People’s front jointly claimed responsibility for the ambush. It has been argued that fighting the Myanmar military war against pro-democracy resistance groups may have emboldened the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a Manipur-based extremist group. This also brings into question China’s re-establishment of its links with PLA Manipur and other like-minded groups in the backdrop of the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).^[21] Further, the Moreh Battalion of Assam Rifles recovered a large number of prefabricated Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) weighing approx 250 Kg along with a large quantum of other explosives and warlike stores.^[22]

Mizoram governor, Hari Babu Kambhampati, stated that the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) is almost nearing completion within the Mizoram side. Despite the pandemic, the Public Works Department completed several works of formation cutting (405 km) and construction of cement concrete pavements (90 km).^[23] Mizoram plans to give COVID-19 vaccines to more than 12000 Myanmar nationals who are currently taking shelter in the state. The Mizoram government had also sent delegations to the Centre, seeking assistance for the Myanmar nationals; however, the Centre is yet to respond.^[24]

Conclusion

The country is reeling under political, social and economic crises. The continued violence from both sides has increased the number of displaced people and pushed them to live in inhumane conditions. The political crises continue as the military government rule continues to thwart the return of democracy. The NUG claims to be the country’s legitimate leaders as they were democratically elected by the people of Myanmar, whereas the military rulers claim to be the rightful defenders of the country. The economic crises continue and the COVID-19 cases continue to rise. The UNSC states that the solution to the current crises lies in the pursuance of dialogue and reconciliation with the interests of the people of Myanmar.

Endnotes :

^[1] https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/five-point-road-map-will-continue-sacs-chair
^[2]https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/11/03/satellite-data-raise-fears-myanmars-army-setting-towns-ablaze#
^[3]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/10/myanmar-military-accused-of-blocking-aid-to-displaced-civilians
^[4]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/locals-report-new-clash-between-arakan-army-military-in-maungdaw
^[5] https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/arakan-army-releases-15-captives-arrested-during-armed-conflict-with-myanmar-military
^[6] https://apnews.com/article/business-myanmar-telecommunications-assassinations-e244447c0b83e15215524a94a326a3fc
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-loses-1300-soldiers-killed-over-last-month-nug.html
^[8]https://indianexpress.com/article/world/myanmar-army-soldiers-abandon-crisis-7633925/
^[9]https://www.metro.us/myanmar-opposition-raises-6-3/
^[10] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-civilian-government-blacklists-junta-conglomerates.html
^[11] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/activists-urge-un-intervention-over-myanmar-army-offensives-2021-11-05/
^[12]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-aims-to-wipe-out-armed-resistance-in-three-months.html
^[13] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/un-security-council-expresses-deep-concern-as-myanmar-violence-worsens.html
h^[14]ttps://globalnews.ca/news/8355169/myanmar-coup-crimes-against-humanity/
^[15]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/07/world/asia/myanmar-bill-richardson.html
^[16] https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/japanese-envoy-sasakawa-says-he-told-aa-hold-its-fire-wake-brief-clash-last-week
^[17] https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/snubbed-11102021183951.html
^[18] https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/national-unity-government-calls-on-interpol-to-review-juntas-invitation-to-89th-general
^[19] https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/rohingya-crisis/2021/11/18/united-nations-adopts-resolution-on-rohingyas
^[20] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-backed-myanmar-infrastructure-project-leaves-farmers-landless.html
^[21] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/manipur-ambush-brings-china-role-in-northeast-back-in-focus-101636891328423.html
^[22]https://www.eastmojo.com/manipur/2021/11/09/assam-rifles-recovers-huge-acache-of-explosives-along-indo-myanmar-border/
^[23] https://thenortheasttoday.com/states/mizoram/9621-per-cent-work-on-multi-modal-transit-transport-project/cid5812373.htm
^[24] https://www.eastmojo.com/news/2021/11/11/mizoram-mulls-covid-jabs-for-12000-myanmar-refugees/

September 2021 marks the seventh month of continued demonstrations and protests against the Myanmar military after the coup. The violence has spread to both urban and ru-ral areas. Meanwhile, COVID-19 has surged and this could result into a public health emer-gency. The country is also reeling under economic crises with the lack of financial liquidity and depreciation of the currency. Internationally, no speech was given from the side of My-anmar at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The first in-person QUAD summit was held in the United States (US) and the need for peaceful resolution of the crises was stated.

Political Crises and Coup Resistance

With the National Unity Government (NUG) call for “people’s defensive war” on 07 September 2021, intense protests and fighting between the military and ethnic groups were reported. Duwa Lashi, Vice President of NUG, in his 14-point speech, also urged the members of the military to join pro-democracy groups and ethnic groups to attack the military. ^[1] However, the Military spokesman Zaw Min Tun dismissed the NUG’s call for revolt. Moreover, false reports were circulated that State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did not accept armed resistance against the military regime by the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) and the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs). ^[2] The NUG call for the “people’s defensive war” has not been met with much sympathy from the international community.

The situation has been marked by violence, including tit-for-tat killings between the military and the résistance forces. Some of the major incidents during the month were reported. In-tense fighting between the Chinland Defence Force (CDF) and the military was reported at Lungler village. The CDF and CNA cadres attacked the military camp at Lungler. ^[3] Since the early July, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the military have been clashing in Mongkoe and Pansai in northern Shan State. During the month, the MNDAA retook control of a strategic hill near Phaung Sai village, which the military had captured earlier. ^[4]

According to the Human Rights Ministry of the civilian NUG, the military attacked the Sagaing Region and murdered about 112 people within three months. The NUG also reported the military massacres in Kani to the UN Security Council in August. ^[5] Attacks against civilians were also reported in northern Karen and Kayah States.

The civilian resistance forces have destroyed more than 80 telecom towers owned in a joint venture between the Myanmar military and Vietnam’s Defence Ministry. In addition, the month witnessed the targeting of Mytel telecom masts after the NUG declared a nationwide people’s defensive war against the military regime. The people have been boycotting Mytel services since the coup in protest at the military takeover, and the civilian forces had first targeted their offices in early April. ^[6]

The violence inflicted by the military has urged the soldiers and police to break ties and nearly 2,500 soldiers and police defected and joined the resistance movement since the coup. However, the military has not yet commented on these developments. On the other hand, the military has offered rewards to whistleblowers and informants who help make arrests of people associated with anti-military groups. ^[7]

The month also marked the 33rd Anniversary of the National League for Democracy (NLD), born in 1988. However, due to the current crises, there is a question mark over its future existence. Since its formation, the NLD was being persecuted by the then military regime and also ousted by the current military regime. ^[8] During the month, Aung San Suu Kyi was supposed to appear before a special court in Naypyitaw’s Zabuthiri Township, but was cancelled as it was reported that she fell sick. Later, she attended a hearing at a special court in Naypyitaw’s Zabuthiri Township. The lawyer said arguments in the sedition cases against all three were heard under Section 505(b) of the Penal Code, and the court will give its decision at the next hearing. ^[9]

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a military-backed party, released a joint declaration which it said was signed by 23 political parties on 08 September. The joint declaration urged the UN not to approve U Kyaw Moe Tun as the parallel NUG’s Myanmar ambassador to the UN. However, few parties denied that they had not signed such a statement. ^[10]

Economic Crises

There were massive disruptions in the financial sector, as the military intervened in operations of the Central Bank of Myanmar and restricted internet access. There is a lack of cash liquidity and the currency has been depreciated to its lowest. The US dollar exchange rate rose to a record high of around 2,500 to 2,700 kyats per dollar. ^[11]

During the month, the Kanbawza (KBZ) Bank branch in the northern Shan State town of Ky-aukme was robbed. In recent months, three other bank robberies were reported. ^[12] The World Bank and UNDP have projected that the proportion of people living in poverty could double to almost half of the nation’s population by the beginning of 2022. This would reverse the gains made since 2005. Most young people are applying for passports at a recently reopened office in Yankin Township in the Yangon to run away from the political repression. ^[13]

International Responses

The 76th session of the UNGA closed without the speech from Myanmar. The current representative Kyaw Moe Tun, chosen by former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, had been critical of the military coup. However, the military has made two requests to replace him with a former general. But the United Nations has not yet approved the appointment. ^[14]

In a report, the US and China agreed to defer the decision to November on who would occupy Myanmar’s seat at the UN – the military or the NUG. Both the countries sit on the UNGA Credentials Committee (UNGA-CC), and seven other members, which have the mandate to decide country representation at the organisation. The nine-member committee also includes Russia, which has “informally endorsed” the deal. This means that the sitting representative, Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, will continue to hold the seat and is expected to “hold his tongue” and “keep a low profile”. ^[15]

On 24 September, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) leaders called for an end to the violence in Myanmar in a joint statement. The Prime Ministers of the four countries – the US, India, Australia and Japan participated in the first-ever in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit, hosted by the US. The leaders also called for the urgent implementation of ASEAN’s Five Point
Consensus on Myanmar. ^[16] Ear-lier, ASEAN’s Special Envoy for Myanmar, Erywan Yusof, had proposed a four-month cease-fire until the end of this year to the military and the regime had accepted it. However, the parallel NUG has said that to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid, the Special Envoy should have got an agreement from the military regime to cease civilian arrests and provide for meetings with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. ^[17]

The military also engaged in talks with Pakistan to produce JF-17 Block III fighters, a lightweight, single-engine, fourth-generation multi-role combat aircraft. According to well-informed sources, the Pakistan delegation was in the country from 01-05 September. Myanmar has purchased JF-17 multi-role combat aircraft from Pakistan in the past, and is currently in “advanced negotiations” to build third-generation models under license. The jet fighters can engage in air-to-air battles and have ground-attack capabilities to deliver both dumb bombs and precision-guided munitions. Thus, they are suitable for Myanmar, where armed conflict with ethnic rebels is frequent. ^[18]

The World Bank proposed a “Refugee Policy Review Framework” (RPRF) to integrate Roh-ingya’s in Bangladesh. The WB has proposed the RPRF for 14 member states, currently hosting refugees. The proposal is to evaluate the effectiveness of the grants for the refugees and host communities under its “soft-loan window” International Development Assistance. The WB offered USD 2 billion to Bangladesh if it integrated Rohingya refugees with economic and social rights. However, Bangladesh rejected the proposal and stated that Rohingya are “forcibly displaced persons”, and Bangladesh only provided temporary shelter. At the end, Rohingya want to return to Myanmar. Such a proposal will further instigate Myanmar to slow the repatriation process. ^[19]

India’s Engagements with Myanmar

Indian newspapers have reported that the Meitei rebels’ are cooperating with Myanmar’s military regime since April. They have quoted Indian intelligence officers as saying that the PLA-MP and the UNLF were involved in the lethal crackdown in Kale and Tamu in which 12 civilians were killed. In May 2021, Myanmar’s military regime met with some Meitei rebel leaders, which led to the Meitei rebels agreeing to work for the military regime in exchange for cash and a base in Sagaing Region. However, despite widespread reports of Meitei rebel groups cooperating with the regime, not every Meitei rebel is willing to fight for the regime, said ethnic Naga observer Ko Aung Tun. ^[20]

China in Myanmar

In August 2021, China held a test run of a new overland trade route with Myanmar. Around 60 containers were sent in the first trial by road from Yangon, entering China at the border crossing between Shan State’s Chin Shwe Haw and Lincang in Yunnan Province, before continuing by rail to Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province. The test comes after the first visit to Myanmar after the visit of Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang—since the military junta seized power in February. The new route could help boost trade with Myanmar and link China with the Indian Ocean. Further, the agreement to conduct preliminary field investigation work for the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Deep Sea Port Project had been signed during the month. ^[21]

Scholars have argued that China is playing its ‘dictatorship diplomacy’. By promoting the pa-riah regimes and dictators, China’s strategic depth is increased. The regimes are internationally isolated, not accountable to their people and their human rights violations are labelled as “internal matters”. ^[22]

Conclusion

Myanmar’s military arrested thousands of civil servants, teachers, students, medics and administrators, and have increased violent attacks on civilians and armed organisations. The armed organisations are also waging attacks against the military, especially after the NUG call for “people’s defensive war”. Myanmar’s economic hardship is compounded due to the COVID-19 crises and political turmoil. The international organisations are paying lip service by stating the need to engage in dialogues; however, no constructive efforts are being taken.

References

^[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-shadow-government-unveils-new-strategy-oppose-military-rule-2021-09-07/
^[2] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-suu-kyi-denies-false-reports-that-she-opposes-armed-resistance-to-junta.html
^[3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/myanmar-army-civilians-clash-near-border-100-flee-to-mizoram/articleshow/86107391.cms
^[4] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ethnic-armed-group-captures-strategic-hill-from-myanmar-junta-forces.html
^[5] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-shadow-government-prepares-evidence-of-junta-war-crimes.html
^[6] Mytel is a joint venture that involves a number of companies, including the government-owned Star High Public Co Ltd, which is run by the Myanmar military conglomer-ate Myanmar Economic Corporation, Myanmar National Telecom Holding (MNTH) Public Ltd, a consortium compromising 11 companies, and the Vietnamese telecom company Viettel, a Hanoi-based state-owned enterprise operated by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defence.https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/over-80-myanmar-military-owned-telecom-towers-destroyed-nationwide.html
^[7] https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/defect-09022021203230.html
^[8] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-nld-marks-33rd-anniversary-facing-abolition-threat.html
^[9] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-attends-court-as-health-improves.html
^[10] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-backed-usdp-accused-of-exploiting-smaller-political-parties.html
^[11] Before the military coup, the exchange rate was between 300-1,400 kyats per USD https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-currency-hits-record-low-as-coup-wreaks-havoc-on-economy.html
^[12]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/kbz-bank-robbed-in-northern-shan-state
^[13] https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/growing-numbers-young-people-seek-flee-myanmar
^[14] https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/09/29/news/world/afghanistan-myanmar-left-in-un-meet/1816472
^[15] https://barbedwires.substack.com/p/what-to-make-of-the-us-china-deal
^[16] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/quad-leaders-call-on-myanmar-junta-to-end-violence.html
^[17] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nug-questions-aseans-ceasefire-agreement-with-myanmar-junta.html
^[18] The JF-17 is co-developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Com-plex and China’s Chengdu Aerospace Corporation. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/pakistan-defense-delegation-made-unannounced-visit-to-myanmar-capital.html/amp?__twitter_impression=true
^[19] https://www.eurasiareview.com/10092021-rethinking-sustainable-solution-to-rohingya-crisis-limits-of-world-banks-proposal-oped/
^[20]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/rebel-fighters-from-india-cooperating-with-myanmar-military-regime.html
^[21] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/agreement-moves-myanmars-kyaukphyu-port-project-a-step-forward.html
^[22] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-tests-new-trade-route-with-myanmar-in-show-of-support-for-junta.html