The month was marked with major developments as the year 2023 is crucial for Myanmar with the announcement of elections. On 31 January, the two years of emergency rule is supposed to end, and the National Defence and Security Council has to conduct elections in the next six months. With the expiry of the emergency rule, one needs to ask whether the elections will take place and, if yes, whether they will be free and fair. The country witnessed many events preceding the elections, with the changes in the elections rules and regulations and the meetings within different groups. Internationally, as the military rule enters its third year, more sanctions were imposed by the western nations and reports by Human Rights Watch and Fortify Rights raised concerns over the worsening situation in the country.

Elections 2023

04 January 2023 marked 75 years of the country’s Independence. The military celebrated the day with parading of troops and weaponry. In earlier years, the day was celebrated with great festivities, but since the coup, celebrations have been largely muted. ^[1] Min Aung Hlaing presided over the parade in which he stated that the regime was preparing for the elections with compilations of voters list and creating household registration data and other personal information. He reiterated that aim is to set up a “genuine, discipline-flourishing” democracy to return the nation to a state of stability and normalcy.^[2] In addition, on 06-07 January, the State Peace Talk Team, led by Lt-Gen Yar Pyae, held meetings with representatives of ethnic armed groups, including the United Wa State Party, the National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Shan State Progress Party to discuss plans to hold elections in their areas. ^[3] The preparation of elections has also led to increased attacks from the resistance side.^[4]

The military replaced the 2010 law with the new law on political parties, which bars parties and candidates deemed to have links to individuals or organisations “designated as committing terror acts” or seen as “unlawful”. The parties also need to secure at least 100,000 members within three months of registration and have funds of 100 million Myanmar kyats i.e. 100 times more than previously. The new law also states that the existing parties must apply for registration within two months of the legislation being announced, or they will be “automatically invalidated”. Furthermore, the law restrains the parties from lodging any complaints against the Union Election Commission (UEC) decisions on registration.^[5] This clearly will prevent any of the resistance forces from being part of the elections and thereby questions the fairness of the elections.

The military regime-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) also stepped up its efforts to solidify its position ahead of polls. On 05 January, Khin Yi held an informal meeting with 37 pro-military parties to discuss how they could strengthen their position in the upcoming elections. In the 2020 elections, the USDP contested almost all the constituencies but only won 71 seats. ^[6] Following the meeting, two also met 235 representatives of Yangon-based organisations and charities in Yangon.^[7] The pro-regime Pyu Saw Htee militias are also forcing voters in Sagaing and Mandalay regions to attend election campaign meetings. ^[8]

The Acting President Duwa Lashi La of the National Unity Government (NUG) also delivered his speech that 2023 would mark the turning point in the war against military rule and called for continuous revolution with an offensive strategy. The NUG released a New Year Joint Declaration on the People’s Revolution, which has drawn up a one-year plan to eradicate the military dictatorship.^[9] They have also called Myanmar’s neighbours and other concerned countries in the Indo-Pacific region to help the people of Myanmar and their legitimate representatives.

There were also statements by Three Brotherhood Alliance and Kachin Independence Organisation chairman General N’Ban La demanding dialogue between all relevant stakeholders without Min Aung Hlaing.^[10] The NUG further stated that it had raised more than USD 100 million to fund its movement. About 45 per cent of the funds are from the sales of Spring Revolution Special Treasury Bonds. Funds were also raised through the auction of military-linked properties. Finally, the NUG earned three billion kyats (USD 1.89 million) from collecting taxes in 38 out of 330 townships across Myanmar.^[11]

The conflict has intensified within the country, and there has been a 361 per cent increase in airstrikes by the military in February-November 2022, according to data collected by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project). Over the same period in 2021, 81 air strikes were conducted by the side of the military. The military was forced to engage in 3,127 clashes with resistance forces, compared to 1,921 clashes over the same period in 2021, a 94 per cent rise in armed conflict. ^[12] In addition, a report by the Ministry of Women, Youths and Children Affairs of the NUG stated that Myanmar’s regime had killed at least 265 children and 414 women since the 2021 coup. The NUG’s ministry reported this week that 13 per cent of the victims are female, and nearly 9 per cent are under-18s, including infants.^[13]

Economic Situation

The World Bank “Myanmar Economic Monitor: Coping with Uncertainty” report described the ongoing struggle in the country to recover from the twin headwinds, COVID-19 and the military coup. The growth is estimated at 3 per cent for the fiscal year ending September 2023, with per capita GDP expected to remain about 13 per cent below its pre-COVID-19 level. The conflict has disrupted business operations, household incomes remain weak, and as a result, nearly 40 per cent of the country now lives below the poverty line. There has also been an increase in opium production. The UNODC estimated that production in 2022 was around 790 tonnes, and potentially as high as 1,200 tonnes, with an expansion in both the amount grown and the yield per hectare. Much of the increase in opium production has occurred in Shan State.^[41] Using a combination of satellite imagery and field reporting, a new UNODC report has found an increase of 33 per cent in opium production since February 2021. ^[15] To stabilise the economy, the Military Council established the Fund for Uplifting of National Economy with 400 billion kyats and a new fund MSME Development Fund for micro, small and medium enterprises, was set up.^[16]

International Developments

Human Rights Watch (HRW), in its report “World Report 2023”, accused Myanmar’s military of war crimes and crimes against humanity since the takeover in February 2021. The report noted that the military had committed mass killings, arbitrary arrests and detention, torture, sexual violence, and attacks on civilians in conflict areas. Furthermore, the military hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid to communities most at risk. The report called for international commitment through targeted sanctions against the military and emphasised the role that Indonesia needs to play as an ASEAN chair.^[17] In another report, HRW accused Japan of transferring over USD one million in 2022 to Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) under the Yokogawa Bridge Corporation project. HRW urged the Japanese government to suspend all ongoing non-humanitarian aid benefitting Myanmar’s military, which has been accused of committing widespread crimes since February 2021.^[18]

The Special Advisory Council on Myanmar also released a report noting that several UN member states continue to sell weapons to the military. Around 13 countries, such as the US, India, France, and Japan, are supplying crucial raw materials and machines to Myanmar’s military for the production of a range of weapons. For instance, high-precision machines made by the Austrian supplier GFM Steyr are used in several locations to manufacture gun barrels. Similarly, raw materials, such as copper and iron from China, have been traced to weapons production in Myanmar. The key components, such as fuses and electric detonators, have been acquired from companies in India and Russia, and the software is believed to originate from Israel and France. The number of factories producing arms in Myanmar has multiplied from around six in 1988 to around 25 factories.^[19]

As the military rule is about to enter its third year, Canada announced amendments to the Special Economic Measures (Burma) Regulations on 31 January. These amendments list an additional six individuals under the Schedule of the Regulations and include a new prohibition on the export, sale, supply or shipment of aviation fuel (wherever situated globally) destined for Myanmar or any person in Myanmar. This is the ninth amendment to the Regulations, and in total, it includes over 150 parties.^[20]

With Indonesia taking over as the ASEAN Chair, on 11 January, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi announced that they would establish a special envoy’s office to enable a national dialogue to address the crisis and allow humanitarian assistance. The official added that ASEAN would also continue to collaborate with the United Nations special envoy in dealing with the Myanmar issue.^[21] In response, Myanmar’s military warned ASEAN not to interfere with its internal matters and warned ASEAN not to “engage with any terrorist groups and unlawful associations [recognised] by the Government of Myanmar”.^[22] In addition, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, during his two-day visit to Indonesia, urged the Myanmar military to implement peace plans drawn up by the regional grouping.^[23]

On the other hand, the meeting between the chief of Thailand’s Defence Forces, Chalermphon Srisawasdi, and Min Aung Hlaing from 19-21 January raised concerns about a uniform approach within the ASEAN members to deal with the Myanmar crisis. The meeting happened shortly after the assets of Min Aung Hlaing’s children and cronies were confiscated in Thailand over their alleged involvement in the illicit drug trade. The annual meeting of both military leaders did not happen in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, despite a Myanmar military offensive on the border raising security concerns, both sides went ahead with the decision to reopen the friendship bridge across Moei River, linking Thailand’s Mae Sot district and Myanmar’s Myawaddy on 16 January. The reopening of the bridge will facilitate the resumption of cross-border activities after three years of closure.^[24]

Earlier during the month, China opened three border gates to Myanmar on 08 January, but Myanmar refused to open the gates on its side of the border following fears resulting from surging COVID-19 infection rates in China. These three border gates, Nandaw, Sinphyu and Manwein, have seen the highest levels of border trade between China and Myanmar.^[25] Furthermore, Bangladesh requested China to discuss the issue with the Myanmar government to resolve the fresh unrest at the Zero Line on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.^[26]

India in Myanmar

As the Myanmar military began airstrikes on Camp Victoria in Chin State, the fallouts of the same could be heard on the border with Mizoram state’s Champhai district near to the camp. As per media reports, at least one shell landed on the Indian side. Due to similar aerial bombardments, tensions have already been reported with Bangladesh and Thailand. However, India hasn’t yet responded in an official manner.^[27] Following the bombings, around 200 Myanmar’s nationals crossed the border into Mizoram.^[28] Myanmar’s NUG has also urged the Indian government and other neighbouring countries to stop military warplanes from using their airspace.^[29] Finally, there are hopes to complete the last 109 km of Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMMTT) project, as IRCON was recently appointed as the Project Management Consultant (PMC).^[30]

Conclusion

Amnesty International accused the military of arbitrarily arresting, torturing and murdering people. Since the coup, more than 3,000 people have been killed, 1.5 million have been internally displaced, and more than 13,000 are still detained in inhumane conditions, with four people executed and at least 138 sentenced to death.^[31] There is a widespread call for increased collective international action ahead of the anniversary on 01 February 2023. There is an immediate need to implement a global arms embargo on Myanmar and cooperating countries such as China and Russia to suspend any direct or indirect supply of arms and ammunition. Even the supply of aviation fuel to Myanmar needs to be restrained to ensure that aviation fuel will not be used to carry out airstrikes. And most importantly, as the elections need to be held by the end of two years of military rule, it is crucial to engage with all stakeholders and ensure there is a re-establishment of an inclusive democratic and federal system in Myanmar.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/myanmar-junta-marks-independence-day-show-force-military-built-capital-3181706
^[2]https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/myanmars-military-junta-takes-step-toward-controversial-election/
^[3]https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-military-proxy-party-gear-up-for-2023-election
^[4]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-census-collection-sparks-deadly-resistance-attacks.html
^[5]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/27/myanmar-military-unveils-strict-new-election-law-ahead-of-polls
^[6]https://www.mizzima.com/article/usdp-chairperson-meets-37-political-parties-naypyitaw
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/with-eye-on-poll-myanmar-military-allied-usdp-meets-charities-social-groups.html
^[8]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/pro-junta-militias-forcing-myanmar-voters-to-attend-election-propaganda-sessions.html
^[9]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/acting-president-2023-will-mark-turning-point-for-myanmars-revolution.html
^[10]https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/all-stakeholders-negotiations-can-succeed-just-take-out-min-aung-hlaing.html
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/revolutionary-armies-demand-unified-attacks-on-myanmar-junta.html
^[11]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/myanmar-shadow-government-raises-131m-to-oppose-junta
^[12]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sham-election-will-only-prolong-myanmar-civil-war-jakarta-post-contributor
^[13]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-continues-to-target-women-and-children-nug.html
^[14]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-opium-production-booming-in-myanmar-after-the-coup-report/
^[15]https://www.miragenews.com/myanmars-economy-under-uncertainty-937157/
^[16]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-allocates-170-billion-kyat-small-and-medium-enterprises
^[17]https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/12/myanmar-abuses-mount-military-coup
^[18]https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/23/myanmar-japans-construction-aid-benefits-junta
^[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64250674
^[20]https://www.globalcompliancenews.com/2023/02/06/https-sanctionsnews-bakermckenzie-com-canada-amends-myanmar-sanctions-6-individuals-targeted-and-new-prohibition-on-aviation-fuel-_02022023/
^[21]https://en.vietnamplus.vn/indonesia-to-establish-office-of-asean-special-envoy-on-myanmar/246919.vnp
^[22]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/asean-01122023175903.html
^[23]https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/indonesia-malaysia-agree-to-strengthen-asean-urge-myanmar-to-implement-peace-plans
^[24]The Thai military also ignored the violation of its airspace by a Myanmar MiG 29 fighter jet in June 2022. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-militarys-close-ties-with-myanmar-junta-compromising-asean-efforts-to-resolve-crisis/
^[25]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-junta-keeps-border-gates-china-closed-following-covid-19-surge
^[26]https://www.risingbd.com/english/national/news/92935
^[27]https://www.timesnownews.com/india/myanmar-military-targets-rebel-camp-in-strikes-along-mizoram-border-bombs-hit-indian-village-article-96924842
^[28]https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/mizoram/200-myanmar-refugees-in-mizoram-after-fleeing-strikes-on-border-camp-8385828/
^[29]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-civilian-government-calls-on-neighbors-to-deny-junta-jets-airspace-access.html
^[30]https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2023/jan/09/new-hope-for-india-myanmar-transit-kaladan-projectwith-new-consultant-2536023.html
^[31]https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/01/myanmar-coup-second-anniversary/

As the country proceeds with the election year 2023, the military and its part Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) are gearing up for elections in 2023, while the National Unity Government is refusing to recognise the elections. The conflict continues between the military and opposition forces, and there is an increasing number of casualties and human displacement. The military court sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to another seven years of prison for corruption charges, with a total of 33 years in prison. During the month, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution asking the military to end violence and release all political prisoners. In the United States, both houses of the legislature passed the BURMA Act, which now awaits President’s approval. Further, due to “no visible progress” on the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, ASEAN excluded the Defence Minister from ASEAN Defence Minister’s meeting. Though, Thailand hosted an informal meeting with Myanmar’s military leaders, along with Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos. Finally, after an informal ceasefire between Arakan Army and Myanmar military, India is speeding up the implementation of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project, but there are increasing concerns because of human and drug trafficking across India-Myanmar borders. The major national and international developments in December 2022 are discussed in the article below.

Domestic and Political Situation

Myanmar’s military replaced village tract and ward administrators in Yangon with members of the military-backed USDP. The move comes after USDP chair U Khin Yin introduced a security framework for party members. Yangon has been the centre of conflict and has witnessed brutal crackdowns and mass arrests of protesters. The details of the replacement were leaked from the Yangon General Administration Department, which stated the department had permitted to replace 72 village tract and ward administrators and 292 hundred-household heads.^[1] China has also launched an outreach to assist the USDP ahead of the elections.

On the other hand, Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG), in an interview with Khmer Times, refused to recognise the elections and claimed that NUG is in control of 60 per cent of the country. He condemned the military Government’s acts of violence and called for ASEAN and other international communities to give them the same support they have been providing to Ukraine. However, he also added that there is room for negotiation and political dialogue but only when the military recognises its fault and “there is punishment for those who committed the hideous crimes”.

Major clashes were reported during the month. The military carried out a three-day attack on Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) base located in Laukkai Township, Shan State. The troops blocked roads and set up checkpoints to search vehicles entering and exiting Laukkai. In 2021, the MNDAA—as part of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee—met with representatives of the Myanmar military, but the agenda and results of the meeting were not disclosed. However, a few days later, the military launched a major offensive against the group in Muse Township. ^[2]

The opposition forces also carried out attacks on the military. On 17 December, the resistance forces attacked a military air base in Yangon’s Hmawbi Township. Hmawbi People’s Defence Force (PDF) and allied resistance groups claimed responsibility for the attack. Since the coup, the military regime has escalated its airstrikes against PDFs, ethnic armed organisations and civilian targets. As the PDFs lacked anti-aircraft missiles, they started targeting military air bases in Yangon, Mandalay and Magwe regions.^[3] Incidents were also reported in Kachin and Mon states and Sagaing, Magwe and Mandalay regions.^[4] The military also suffered heavy casualties in clashes with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Shan State starting on 07 December. After six days of fighting, TNLA gained control of four villages from the military. Later, Myanmar clarified that it was targeting the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), not the TNLA, and on 17 December, the two sides reached an agreement^[5]

In addition, the military is reportedly resupplying its troops in Rakhine State despite an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the military. Furthermore, despite lifting travel restrictions, the regime continues to block the Ponnagyun-Rathedaung and Minbya-Myebon roads and waterways in Ann Township. ^[6] The NUG, on the other hand, invited more people to join the revolution. In the latest call to soldiers, police and civil servants, the NUG asked them to join the revolution as informants if they can’t defect. The NUG issued the invitation because intelligence needs are growing as the revolution accelerates. NUG’s statement promised protection of the Ministry of Defence and rewards for informants depending on the level of information sent. However, this also raises concerns as now the regime would further tighten restrictions on telecoms and closely monitor phone and internet use among its members.^[7]

While the conflicts and violence continue, the military has extended its ceasefire agreement with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) until the end of 2023. The agreement was extended to boost the peace process in Myanmar.^[8] On the contrary, the seven ethnic armed organisations, which are signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), failed to arrange an informal meeting with Myanmar’s regime. The Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), New Mon State Party, Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army Peace Council (KPC), Arakan Liberation Party, Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, Pa-O National Liberation Organisation (PNLO) and Lahu Democratic Union on 07 December proposed a meeting with Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee. Meanwhile, the Karen National Union (KNU), which is a signatory to the NCA but fighting the regime, said it has no plans to hold talks.^[9]

During the month, the final hearings of the Aung San Suu Kyi case were held, and she was sentenced to 33 years of prison in total. In the recent hearing, she was sentenced to seven years on five charges of corruption, thereby totalling 33 years in prison. ^[10] Meanwhile, in her first public comments, she said she was proud of young Burmese people and all those struggling to defend and fight for democracy. The message was shared via her Australian former economic adviser, Sean Turnell, who was released by the regime in November 2021. In an interview with News 10, he said he met Suu Kyi when they were sentenced.^[11]

The month also marked the celebration of the founding of the Myanmar Air Force and Navy. The Chairman of the State Planning and Administration Council, Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, General Min Aung Hlaing, opened the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Myanmar Air Force and Navy, in which new aircraft and helicopters were commissioned into service. The major attraction this year was the acquisition of the Sukhoi Su-30SME fourth-generation multi-purpose fighter aircraft.^[12] In addition to the 75th anniversary of Myanmar’s independence celebrations in January 2023, the State Administration Council issued two types of new gold coins; a tical and a half-tical (one tical is approximately equivalent to 16.33 grams).^[13]

Economic and Social Situation

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, divested from Yoma Bank after its business with military companies was exposed, according to Justice For Myanmar (JFM). In 2020, Yoma Bank extended a loan to Pinnacle Asia, a Myanmar company owned by Khin Thiri Thet Mon, daughter of military chief Min Aung Hlaing. The loan funded the company’s construction of telecom towers for the military-owned mobile operator, Mytel. IFC has now sold its 4.5 percent stake in Yoma Bank to First Myanmar Investment (FMI) for USD 5 million.^[14]

As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, there has reportedly been a rise in the cost of fertilisers leading to a shortage in the production of food in Myanmar. Myanmar farmers rely on imported fertiliser, and its rising international prices, along with the devaluation of the kyat, have driven up the prices of agricultural inputs. The International Food Policy Research Institute reported that Myanmar’s rice productivity dropped 2.1per cent during last year’s monsoon season. Yields declined significantly in Kayah and Chin states, both affected by conflict and high costs of inputs. IFPRI said the prices of fertiliser based on urea increased by 56per cent and the mechanisation costs rose by 19 per cent, while the paddy prices at the farm rose by just 8per cent. In a separate survey of millers, IFPRI reported that 91per cent of the millers stated limited access to electricity and affordable fuel as their most significant disruptions, leading to a decline in output by 20per cent. However, the regime’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation said that the country was sufficiently producing, and the country expects to grow over 17 million acres of paddy in the current fiscal year.^[15]

As a result of continued violent attacks, Myanmar nationals have travelled across waters to reach a safe place. This month Sri Lanka Navy rescued 104 distressed Myanmar nationals aboard a passenger vessel in Sri Lanka’s waters. The distressed vessel is reported to have trespassed due to a mechanical failure while it was carrying passengers from Myanmar to Indonesia.^[16] Malaysia, on the other hand, lifted the stay on deportation of Myanmar nationals. The court lifted a stay on the deportation of 114 Myanmar nationals, clearing the legal obstacles to their deportation and raising concerns about the likely threats to their safety if sent back to Myanmar. In February 2021, the Malaysian court imposed a stay to delay the deportation of 1,200 Myanmar nationals, which the government ignored. Despite the High Court imposing a temporary stay, the government deported 1,086 people. The 114 were left behind in immigration detention because they had tested positive for COVID-19.^[17]

During the month, three more Burmese journalists were sentenced to prison. The latest victim is Soe Yarzar Tun, a Yangon-based freelancer who was sentenced by the special court inside Yangon’s Insein prison on 16 December to four years in prison with hard labour under Section 52 (a) of the Counter-Terrorism Law.^[18] While the cases of human trafficking have increased across Myanmar borders, Brigadier General Aung Htay Myint, head of the Transnational Crime Division, reported that they successfully prevented 81 cases of human trafficking, helping a total of 840 people between 2020 and 2021. He revealed the information during the 5th inter-ministerial meeting of the Coordinated Mekong Ministerial Initiative against Trafficking – COMMIT, which took on via video link at the Myanmar Police Force headquarters. The meeting was attended by representatives from COMMIT countries — Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam and officials from the COMMIT Secretariat. The meeting was chaired by Thailand, and the member countries discussed the development of the Transn,ational Referral Mechanism (TRM) and the designing of a Mekong sub-regional work plan.a href=”#_edn19″ name=”_ednref19″>^[19]

International Developments

The major development during the month was the adoption of the resolution on Myanmar by the United Nations Security Council. On 21 December, the 15-member council adopted a resolution which demanded an end to violence and called on the country’s military rulers to release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. 12 members voted in favour, but India, China and Russia abstained. The resolution was first tabled in September 2021 by the United Kingdom. The language of the resolution was widely debated to avoid any veto against it from Russia and China.^[20]

The Myanmar military, however, rejected the resolution and accused the UNSC of trying to “destabilise” the country. The military released a statement which stated that the resolution includes “several intrusive elements on Myanmar’s internal affairs that contravene the principles and purposes of the United Nations” and instead claimed that the situation in Myanmar was “solely internal affairs” of the country and “in no way poses any risk to international peace and security.” ^[21] During the month, the United Nations General Assembly Credentials Committee agreed to uphold the status of Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun as the permanent representative of Myanmar to the United Nations. Kyaw Moe Tun was appointed to his position in 2020, but since the military takeover, the military has made numerous attempts to remove him from this position.^[22]

Another major international development was the passing of the BURMA Act by both houses of the United States (US) legislature as part of the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA). The act aims to provide non-military aid to the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) and its affiliate organisations, including the National Unity Consultative Council, the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) and ethnic armed organisations (EAO). The Burma Act also authorises measures to prevent the military regime from acquiring weapons and expands sanctions against military businesses. The act authorises political support for establishing federalism, as well as humanitarian aid and technical support for anti-military forces. It also promises action against perpetrators of war crimes. The NDAA will help the Myanmar people if brought into law after signing by US President Joe Biden.^[23] The US also included Myanmar on the list of 12 countries that are of “particular concern” for religious freedom violations. They reported that the Christian minorities now face persecution similar to what the Rohingya have faced. ^[24]

Canada became the first country to impose sanctions on Myanmar military jet fuel suppliers, Asia Sun Group, a Myanmar conglomerate. Asia Sun Group is a local partner of the Myanmar military and is involved in procuring, storing and distributing jet fuel. Asia Sun Group’s role in the Myanmar military’s jet fuel supply chain was detailed in the Amnesty International report, Deadly Cargo, with research supported by Justice For Myanmar. In the past few months, the military conducted indiscriminate airstrikes to wage war against anti-military revolutions. Canada also sanctioned key Myanmar military arms brokers, Dynasty International Company Limited and International Gateways Group. The groups have also been sanctioned by the US and UK.^[25]

The European Union also excluded Myanmar from the representation at the meeting in Brussels with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on 14 December. Since the coup, the EU has imposed rounds of sanctions on Min Aung Hlaing and military-controlled conglomerates and companies, the latest ones being in November 2022.^[26] In addition, the EU has allocated around 6.5 million Euros for the support of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in its efforts to tackle the humanitarian food crisis in Myanmar.^[27]
Furthermore, ASEAN excluded Myanmar from the ASEAN Defence Minister’s meeting. Defence Minister from major ASEAN events due to “no visible progress” on the implementation of the 5PC<^[28] Even Prak Sokhonn, ASEAN’s Special Envoy on Myanmar, cancelled his third announced trip to the country. While it is reported that the visit is cancelled due to time constraints as he has to attend the ASEAN-EU Commemorative Summit in Brussels, it rather reflects growing tensions between the regional bloc and Myanmar’s military regime.^[29] However, Thailand, in contrast, has tried to maintain relations with the military as usual. Thailand hosted interested members of ASEAN to an open-ended consultative meeting on the situation in Myanmar on 22 December. Government ministers of Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam met with military representatives to “find pathways towards a return to normalcy”. Myanmar Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin attended along with Kan Zaw, Minister for Investment and Foreign Economic Relations, and Ko Ko Hlaing, Minister for International Cooperation. However, the meeting was not attended by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines.^[30] Later the NUG strongly urged ASEAN not to waver from its policy of excluding the country’s military leaders from its meetings.^[31]

Furthermore, Thailand’s newly appointed Ambassador to Myanmar, Mongkol Visitstump, presented his credentials to the State Administration Council and Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing on 07 December. He discussed a wide range of issues in bilateral ties, including trade, investment and tourism. The ambassador later met with Soe Win and discussed the long-delayed Dawei Deep Sea project.^[32] Thailand also did not officially open any temporary safe zones along the border and did not make any official records of new refugees arriving from Myanmar, further pushing back the Myanmar nationals into the country.

China’s engagement with the Myanmar military gets closer as China delivered six FTC-2000G fighter jets to the regime’s air force. The six fighter jets are currently being checked over at Meiktila airbase in Mandalay Region. The deal for the fighter jets was signed in January 2022, with each fighter plane costing about USD 9 million. Pilots, engineers and armament officers of the Myanmar Air Force visited China in June 2022. These visits relate to the training of the MAF personnel.^[33] The month also witnessed the visit of Pakistan Colonel Imran Khan to Myanmar to discuss military cooperation. The two-day visit was from 29 November-01 December. A 10-member team from the Myanmar Air Force (MAF) is currently in Pakistan undergoing training on precision targeting in air operations and on the JF-17 jet fighter.^[34]

Moreover, on 02 December, a forum on China-Myanmar economic cooperation was held to enhance economic and investment cooperation between the two countries. The forum was organised by the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) with the theme “China’s New Development and China-Myanmar Cooperation”. According to Myanmar’s Ministry of Commerce, during the first half of the 2022-23 fiscal year, China was Myanmar’s largest trading partner.^[35] Also, the China-funded Kyaukphyu Anargat (Future) Mobile Clinic project in Myanmar’s Rakhine State entered its final stage in December. The project is already providing free healthcare services to around 1,500 villagers.^[36]

During the month, the second Russian trade delegation visited Myanmar to boost bilateral economic ties. Russian economic development minister Maxim Reshetnikov met Min Aung Hlaing and his ministers and signed seven agreements. Min Aung Hlaing and Reshetnikov discussed technical cooperation in arable and livestock farming and iron and steel, pharmaceuticals, mining and energy production. They also discussed the formation of Myanmar-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Associations in Myanmar and plans to boost bilateral cultural cooperation. In addition, the third Intergovernmental Russian-Myanmar Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation was held in Naypyidaw.^[37]

India and Myanmar

After the informal ceasefire between Arakan Army and Myanmar military, India is pushing for the finalisation of its transport project linking the two countries. Indian Consul Jay Krishna met military-appointed Rakhine State Chief Minister Dr Aung Kyaw Min and discussed the official opening of the Sittwe seaport and its Kaladan River route inland through Rakhine’s Kyauktaw to Paletwa in Chin State. They also discussed the incomplete section of the project — a two-lane highway running 109 kilometres from Paletwa to Zorinpui on the Myanmar-India border. The sea-river-road transport route will link Kolkata with Sittwe Port over the Bay of Bengal.^[38]

During the month, the Assam Rifles seized 600 Kg of Brown Sugar in Manipur’s Chandel district bordering Myanmar.^[39] Given the rise in the number of seizures along the India-Myanmar border, the Manipur government stated that it set up more outposts. Manipur Chief Minister inaugurated the Sangaithel police outpost in Imphal West district and said that more outposts would also be set up along the India-Myanmar border to check illegal immigration, smuggling activities, and cross-border crimes.^[40] The Indian Government is also planning to fence a few spaces of the India-Myanmar border, but several local organisations from Manipur are raising objections against the scheme. The issue was raised in the Indian Parliament on 14 December by Manipur’s representative, Leishemba Sanajaoba. The United Committee Manipur (UCM), an apex body of 32 civil society organisations in Manipur, warned that an agitation opposing the move would be launched if the government goes ahead with the fencing project. The UCM alleged that Myanmar had encroached around 5 km into Manipur along Border Pillar 103 after a visit to the spot by a team of the apex body. According to the annual report of the Indian Home Ministry, only 136 km at the Lohit sub-sector in Arunachal Pradesh and 35 km at Kabaw Valley in Manipur are “undemarcated”.^[41]

Way Forward

Marking World Human Rights Day, 08 December 2022, Tom Andrews, the UN Rapporteur for Human Rights in Myanmar, urged the world countries to take robust actions for the people of Myanmar. There have also been calls for the British government to refer Myanmar to the International Criminal Court, as it did with Ukraine. ^[42] As Myanmar inches closer to the elections in 2023, it is important that all stakeholders are involved in the discussion to conduct free and fair elections. The increasing violence and conflict between the military and opposition forces are creating humanitarian loss and economic and social harm to citizens, which needs immediate attention. Myanmar itself needs to find solutions within its own social and political structures to address this crisis.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-militarys-proxy-usdp-taking-control-of-yangon-administrations.html
^[2] he MNDAA is also a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/military-launches-major-assault-on-kokang-base-on-china-myanmar-border
^[3]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-air-base-in-yangon-attacked-by-resistance-for-second-time.html
^[4] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmar-resistance-inflicts-more-casualties-on-junta-forces.html
^[5]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-calls-taang-army-battle-a-misunderstanding.html
^[6]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/rakhine-ceasefire-enables-myanmar-junta-to-resupply-troops.html
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nug-issues-appeal-for-more-myanmar-junta-informants.html
^[8]https://en.vietnamplus.vn/myanmar-extends-ceasefire-until-end-of-2023/246438.vnp
^[9]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-snubs-pro-regime-armed-groups-call-for-peace-talks.html
^[10]https://www.outlookindia.com/international/aung-san-suu-kyi-sentenced-to-33-year-prison-by-myanmar-court-what-are-the-many-corruption-charges-news-249716
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmars-daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-praises-young-anti-junta-resistance-fighters.html
^[12] https://www.scramble.nl/military-news/myanmar-air-force-day
^[13]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-regime-navy-handed-five-vessels-to-attack-resistance-groups.html
^[14]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ifc-divests-from-yoma-bank-after-myanmar-military-links-exposed.html
^[15]https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/high-production-costs-deny-farmers-benefits-of-high-rice-prices/
^[16]https://srilankamirror.com/uncategorized/sl-navy-rescues-104-distressed-myanmar-nationals/
^[17]https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/malaysian-court-lifts-stay-on-deportation-of-myanmar-nationals/
^[18]https://rsf.org/en/rsf-calls-tougher-sanctions-against-myanmar-s-junta-after-three-more-journalists-get-prison
^[19]https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/18/81-human-trafficking-cases-prevented-in-myanmar-between-2020-and-2021
^[20]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/22/un-security-council-resolution-demands-end-to-myanmar-violence
^[21]https://www.laprensalatina.com/myanmar-junta-says-un-resolution-aimed-at-destabilizing-country/
^[22]https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-un-ambassador-reportedly-renewed-for-another-year-despite-junta-s-opposition/6873801.html
^[23]https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/uss-burma-act-is-an-ultimatum-to-myanmar-regime.html
^[24]The other eleven countries on the blacklist are China, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Nicaragua and North Korea for having engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom under the International Religious Freedom Act 1998. https://www.ucanews.com/news/myanmar-remains-on-us-religious-freedom-blacklist/99631
^[25]https://www.mizzima.com/article/canada-sanctions-myanmar-jet-fuel-suppliers
^[26]https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/europe-and-asean-should-work-together-on-myanmar-crisis/
^[27]https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/wfp-says-it-received-7mln-from-eu-to-tackle-1606407.html
^[28]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/1197603/new-narrative-nug-claims-it-controls-60-of-myanmar/
^[29]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/asean-envoy-scraps-planned-third-visit-to-myanmar.html
^[30]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/thailand-to-host-non-asean-meeting-on-myanmar.html
^[31]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-minister-attend-talks-hosted-by-thailand-key-asean-players-absent-2022-12-22/
^[32]https://www.thaipbsworld.com/prayut-government-maintained-close-ties-with-myanmar-junta-in-2022-despite-repression/
^[33]Designed and manufactured by Guizhou Aviation Industry Corporation under the supervision of state-owned aerospace and defence firm Aviation Industry Corporation of China, the FTC-2000G is a light multi-role trainer and combat aircraft. It is capable of carrying up to 3 tons of missiles, rockets or bombs and is tasked mainly with airstrikes against ground targets, according to aerospace news portal Defence World. It can also be used for flight training, aerial surveillance, patrol missions, reconnaissance, electronic warfare, close-in air support, and air escort missions. The FTC-2000G is in service with the Navy and Air Force of the People’s Liberation Army and costs US$8.5 million per unit. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-takes-delivery-of-ftc-2000g-fighter-jets-from-china.html
^[34]The training is believed to be an attempt to fix the problems that have left the MAF’s JF-17s grounded due to technical malfunctions. Myanmar bought 16 JF-17s from China. The first batch of six aircraft was delivered in 2018, but details about the delivery date for the other 10 remain unclear. Myanmar was the first country to buy the JF-17. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-and-pakistan-boost-military-ties.html
^[35]https://english.news.cn/20221203/05b83243386b4a4b85fe0f559ee10d22/c.html
^[36]Designed by the China International Trust Investment Corporation (CITIC) Consortium and funded by the Yunnan Aid, the mobile clinic project was being implemented by the local civil society organisation Kyaukphyu Socio-Economic Development Assistance Association (KSEDAA) https://english.news.cn/20221225/901aae31441645598734361054399504/c.html
^[37]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/russian-trade-delegation-signs-seven-agreements-with-myanmar-junta.html
^[38]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/india-and-myanmar-junta-using-rakhine-truce-to-finalize-trade-corridor.html
^[39]https://nenow.in/north-east-news/manipur/manipur-assam-rifles-seizes-rs-42-lakh-worth-drugs-along-indo-myanmar-border.html
^[40]https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=1033549
^[41]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/civil-society-groups-in-indias-manipur-oppose-plan-to-fence-part-of-border-with-myanmar.html
^[42]https://www.mizzima.com/article/un-official-denounces-international-double-standards-over-myanmar-and-ukraine

Domestically, the country witnessed increased clashes and violent attacks during the month, and the military, along with USDP, is preparing for next year’s elections. The National Day marked the release of more than 5000 prisoners, along with international prisoners such as Australian economist Sean Turnell and Japanese filmmaker Toru Kubota. Nevertheless, the military also uses its judicial powers to sentence members of the National League of Democracy (NLD) and opposition forces and give death penalties. During the month, seven students from Dagon University were sentenced to death. Internationally, the month was dotted with a number of significant events including the ASEAN, G20 leaders, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group meetings. The month also witnessed a two-day visit by the Indian Foreign Secretary to Myanmar for border and security concerns. The following article discusses all these developments in detail.

Domestic Situation

Though the military and its proxy party, USDP, are in full swing to prepare for the elections, the opposition forces have no confidence in the plan for elections. The NLD and most of Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organisations have rejected the 2023 election. Recently, the Karen National Union (KNU) refused to accept the military’s plan for a national election in 2023 and claimed that the military was conducting elections to legitimise its rule. The KNU had earlier also rejected the 2008 Constitution. The international community such as the United States has urged the countries to reject the poll, warning it would be neither free nor fair, threatening the democratic processes in Myanmar.^[1] Even Malaysia, after the ASEAN summits in November 2022, have rejected the elections.

As the number of clashes is increasing in the country, the military-affiliated Pyu Saw Htee militias have forced villagers in Sagaing Region to undergo military training. Led by the nationalist monk U Wasawa from the Association for Protection of Race and Religion, men from the age group 18 to 55 age years are forced to undergo military training. However, in July 2022, at a press conference, the military denied forming Pyu Saw Htee as its military proxies but also allowed the establishment, training and arming of militias at the request of locals for their security, thereby stating that the formation of these militias is legal.^[2]

The clashes and conflicts are increasing across the western and southern regions of the countries. The Landmine Monitor Report 2022, released in the month, stated that only two countries, i.e. Russia and Myanmar, actively use anti-personnel landmines. Since 1999, Myanmar’s military forces have used landmines and have surged their use since the February 2021 coup. Since the military coup in February 2021, 57 civilians have been killed and 395 injured by landmines and explosive remnants of war. The Monitor Report also cited the use of mines by non-state armed groups. At the 20th meeting of state parties to the Mine Ban Treaty, the governments stated that they should condemn Myanmar’s use of anti-personnel landmines.

Further clashes are rising against targeted civilians. For instance, the International Institute for Strategic Studies figures stated that attacks and armed clashes across Rakhine and southern Chin State jumped from two in July to 66 in October 2022.^[3] Some leaked documents revealed that the military is preparing to launch airstrikes against the Chin National Front in Chin State. Churches, hospitals, and schools in Myanmar’s Christian-majority Chin State are on the list of targets, especially the CNF headquarters on Mount Victoria in Thantlang Township.^[4] Christian-majority states such as Kachin, Kayah, Shan, and Chin states have witnessed intense fighting between the military and EAOs.^[5]

However, during the month, the Arakan Army and the military reached an unwritten ceasefire with the help of the Japanese government’s Special Representative for national reconciliation, Yohei Sasakawa. Following the measure on 24 November, there has been no armed engagement between the AA and the Myanmar military. The aim was to resolve the difficulties and crises that the people of Rakhine had faced since the blockade was imposed after the 10 November attack. The rationale for this humanitarian ceasefire is also that the harvest time is essential especially given that the yield is low because of a lack of available water. Since the renewed fighting, the regime blocked roads and waterways in northern Rakhine and neighbouring Chin State. It also banned the supply of cement, fertiliser and medicines. ^[6] Post the November 2020 elections, the AA and the military had reached a ceasefire agreement, but in August 2022, the fighting re-erupted.^[7]

The sentences by the military courts appear to be the longest and most arbitrary. During the month, the regime sentenced seven Dagon University students in Yangon to death. They were arrested in April 2022 for their involvement in the shooting of Global Treasure Bank branch manager Saw Moe Win, a former military officer.^[8] During the month, a military court handed a 148-year sentence to Win Myint Hlaing, a former parliamentarian from the NLD party. He had already been convicted of five offences, for which he received imprisonment of 25 years.^[9] Further, during the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, she denied corruption charges and testified that she was “just giving instructions according to the office procedures”. She has been convicted on 14 charges, and the remaining five corruption charges are still under trial.^[10]

On the other hand, the military released 5,774 prisoners to mark National Day on 17 November. Within these, a few important releases were Australian economist Sean Turnell, a former adviser to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi; former British envoy Vicky Bowman and her husband Htein Linn, a citizen of Myanmar; Japanese filmmaker Toru Kubota, and Counselor Office Minister Kyaw Tint Swe.^[11] The move was appreciated by the UN Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Special Envoy for Myanmar, Prak Sokhonn.^[12] However, in their statements, both reiterated the call for the immediate release of those who continue to be arbitrarily detained and hoped that more progress could be achieved on the Five-Point Consensus (FPC).^[13]

In addition, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) stated that only 402 were political prisoners or were the ones who were about to complete their sentences. According to the AAPP, 12,923 people are still detained who were arrested since the coup for political reasons. According to AAPP Joint Secretary U Bo Kyi, “it is a deliberate tactic meant to deceive foreign governments”.^[14] It should also be noted that those who were released were the people who were arrested as a preemptive measure by the Myanmar military to prevent them from opposing military rule. Furthermore, a week later, a district court in Myawaddy sentenced two former MPs, U Wai Lin Aung and Dr Pyae Phyo of the deposed NLD, to 26 years in prison for Terrorism and Treason (Section 112) charges.^[15]

Socio-Economic Distress

During the month, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) said it would cease its Myanmar operations by early 2023, making it the first international bank to withdraw from the country. The withdrawal follows the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) ruling in October 2022, which blacklisted Myanmar. Also, ANZ said it had been facing “increasing operational complexity” over the past several months and was “working with its institutional customers to transition to alternative banking arrangements”. Early in the month, Justice for Myanmar targeted ANZ after leaked records showed the bank had facilitated payments that foreign companies dealing with Innwa Bank – owned by a military conglomerate, the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC).^[16]

The military also released data on the performance of the country’s foreign trade and investments during the first eight months of the financial year starting April 2022. The Ministry of Commerce released data regarding foreign trade and investments. The data revealed that Myanmar’s foreign trade went up by 22.32 per cent in eight months from April to November 2022, exports rose by 16.84 per cent from the previous year, and imports rose by 27.99 per cent.^[17] Further, Myanmar received 52 investments from foreign countries, adding up to USD 1.451 billion over the seven months of the 2022-23 financial year. Singapore is Myanmar’s largest foreign investor, making up nearly 80 per cent of the total foreign direct investment, followed by investments from Hong Kong and China. However, it must also be noted that the investments made by Singapore and China fell after the military coup. The level of FDI has fallen, and many Multinational Corporations (MNCs) have either suspended or withdrawn their businesses from the country. Moreover, the listing of Myanmar on the blacklist by the Finance Action Task Force (FATF) has raised concerns among several foreign investors.^[18]

There have also been concerns over the shortage of electricity across the country. According to Thaung Han, the Union Electricity and Energy Minister, not enough electricity can be produced to meet the daily demands of all of Yangon’s population and electricity will be rationed by providing it in four-hour windows. The Ministry of Electricity and Energy said that currently, it could only generate 3,200-megawatt hours (MWh) of energy whilst demand across the country stands at over 4,000 MWh. Since the coup, power cuts across the country have become more frequent. Even high inflation has pushed up the price of electricity.^[19]

Furthermore, Myanmar’s military issued new rules, “Organization Registration Law,” requiring international and domestic aid groups to legally have a government-issued registration certificate to work in the country. The law bans “indirect or direct” contact between aid providers and groups blacklisted by the military. The law could eventually impact deliveries of humanitarian assistance from the aid groups. It states that NGOs that fail to register will be punishable by up to five years imprisonment and a fine of nearly €2,500. The military already has a vast list of groups it claims to be “terrorists” and could expand it further to stop international aid flows into territory controlled by resistance forces.^[20]

International Reactions

The Final Report on “Global Response to the Crisis in Myanmar” was released by the International Parliamentary Inquiry (IPI). The report criticised the response to the post-coup crisis in Myanmar by countries and international blocs. The report was released right before the ASEAN meeting scheduled for 10-11 November. Charles Santiago, a Malaysian lawmaker and chairman of the APHR, stated that ASEAN’s FPC reached with Myanmar military leader in April 2021 has been “an utter failure”. In its recommendations, the report called for ASEAN to negotiate a new agreement with Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government (NUG), ensuring the new accord has enforcement mechanisms.^[21]

The United States and European Union announced new sanctions against Myanmar’s military regime. Moreover, the US Embassy issued an alert on 29 November warning its citizens of a rising number of violent attacks in Myanmar and advised them to exercise vigilance in Yangon and avoid suspicious objects or people.^[22] The United States has also supported the NUG, and on 18 November 2022, the NUG prepared to open its first representative office in Washington.^[23] The EU sanctions apply to 19 more individuals and entities.^[24] But on the other hand, the Justice for Myanmar reported that the German Government was funding the training of Myanmar military personnel in violation of EU sanctions. The German Federal Foreign Office continues to train under the Max Planck Foundation for International Peace and the Rule of Law project. Justice For Myanmar has called on the German government to immediately exclude the Myanmar military from remaining activities in the project. As part of the training, the Max Planck Foundation has invited the junta to nominate three representatives for a workshop, to be held in Singapore from 28 November to 02 December 2022, on maritime security and the law of the sea.^[25]

It is also interesting to note that New Zealand has decided to reopen a diplomatic post in military-ruled Myanmar. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat) will send a high-ranking diplomat to Yangon to reopen New Zealand’s embassy. Mfat has said none of its actions “infer” the military is legitimate. Officials have also been speaking with members of the NUG, and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta conducted an online meeting with the NUG’s Foreign Minister, Zin Mar Aung.^[26] Also, during the month, Daw Zin Mar Aung was invited to join the Global Town Hall 2022 meeting, and a pre-recorded message was sent for opening remarks, but her remarks weren’t aired as planned because she was dropped from the meeting’s agenda at the last minute.^[27]

Furthermore, on 29 November, General Min Aung Hlaing met with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the First Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Russian Ground Forces in Nay Pyi Taw. In the meeting, the two sides discussed the conditions to promote cooperation in defence, education, health, and technical aspects and cooperation in the fight against terrorism. They also discussed the enhancement of friendly relations between the two armed forces, bilateral exchange measures, and strategic cooperation in both countries’ economic and technological sectors.^[28] In addition, the Myanmar military delegation attended Transport Week and other international forums in Moscow. The two countries agreed to open direct flights to Yangon and establish a nuclear technology hub in Yangon.^[29]

To further boost their relationship, China opened a direct shipping route linking its port in the South China Sea to Myanmar’s business hub, Yangon. The new Beibu Gulf Port-Myanmar shipping route was jointly launched by Beibu Gulf Port Group and SITC Container Lines (Shanghai). The embassy said four cargo ships would travel the route weekly. The ships will call at ports in other coastal cities in China, Malaysia and Indonesia before arriving in Yangon. The new route aims to reduce enterprises’ logistics and storage costs.^[30] Moreover, on 29 November, a consul from the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar, Lin Tao, paid a call on U Khin Yi, the new chairman of the military’s proxy USDP. The meeting, which was the first between the two sides, focussed on cooperation and came after the junta said it was planning a “national election.”^[31]

The month also witnessed the conduct of the 8th Director General-level conference between Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Border Guard Police (BGP) of Myanmar after a gap of two years. A nine-member team, led by BGB Director General Maj Gen Shakil Ahmed, participated in the meeting. The conference concluded with the signing of a Joint Records of Discussion (JRD). The conference highlighted the need for joint efforts of both forces to curb the drugs and narcotics inflow and combat transnational crimes, including illegal border crossing. In this regard, Bangladesh emphasised a zero-tolerance policy with an all-out effort to prevent trafficking along the border. In addition, the Myanmar side will continue anti-drug measures following its national drug control policy. The DG of BGB also reiterated the national concern about the early repatriation of Rohingyas. Finally, both sides agreed to share information on a timely basis between the designated contact points and agreed to work together against various terrorist groups along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.^[32]

ASEAN Summits

The 40 and 41 ASEAN Summits were held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The Myanmar military was not invited to the meetings and was asked to send a non-political representative, to which the regime did not agree. The members admitted that “little progress” has been made in implementing the FPC, and ASEAN leaders urged Myanmar’s military regime to comply with its commitments. They decided to follow a timeline “that outlines concrete, practical and measurable indicators” to support the peace plan. The meeting also stated that the ASEAN would initiate talks with the opposition groups. The meeting concluded with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen handing over the hammer symbolising ASEAN chairmanship to President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, who announced the theme of ASEAN 2023 as “ASEAN Matters: The Epicentrum of Growth”.^[33]

Following the meeting, the Myanmar military on 11 November slammed a decision by ASEAN to engage with opposition groups, which include NUG and EAOs. The military blamed the lack of progress on the pandemic and was hindered by armed resistance movements that it calls terrorists. In contrast, the NUG released a statement on 12 November regarding the ASEAN decision and agreed that the ASEAN 5PC is not progressing and that there is a need to reframe or expand the 5PC, vowing to work with the ASEAN.^[34] During the month, concerns were also raised as the ASEAN member Laos handed over the ASEAN Air Chiefs Conference chairmanship to the Myanmar military. The Myanmar military and Russia continue co-chairing the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) – Plus Experts’ Working Group on Counter Terrorism, for which a meeting is scheduled in December 2022.^[35]

On 23 November, the 9th ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+) was held, and the ASEAN Defence Ministers, except Myanmar, discussed the changes in the global security environment. Cambodia hosted ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Retreat (ADMM Retreat) under the theme ‘Solidary for Harmonised Security’, along with the 9th ADMM-Plus, the ASEAN-US Defence Ministers’ Informal Meeting and the ASEAN-India Defence Ministers’ Informal Meeting. The meetings highlighted the numerous traditional and non-traditional security challenges faced in present times.^[36] The Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh joined the meeting of ASEAN Defence Ministers.^[37] In addition, the second meeting of the Golden Triangle Prosecutors Network on “Cooperation to Counter Narcotics Trafficking in the Region” was held in Laos. Laos, Thai and Myanmar officials met to discuss joint efforts to crack down on transnational crime, especially drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle border area.^[38]

India in Myanmar

On 20-21 November, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra visited Myanmar, during which he discussed border management and security issues. Kwatra’s visit came amid escalating tensions between ethnic armed organisations and the Myanmar army that could have an impact on the border regions in India’s northeastern states. The discussions were held on bilateral issues relating to border management, security and ongoing bilateral cooperation projects. Foreign Secretary also reiterated India’s commitment to continue with the projects under the Rakhine State Development Programme and Border Area Development Programme.^[39] Furthermore, India raised the issue of human trafficking of its citizens in the Myawaddy area of Myanmar by international crime syndicates.^[40]

Earlier in the month, Myanmar Minister of Commerce Aung Naing Oo visited Kolkata and stated the intentions to expand the government-to-government (G2G) trade basket by including more agro items, such as green mung beans. The G2G Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on trade cooperation for urad and tur pulses was signed in June 2021. The MoU provided that Myanmar can export 250,000 tonnes of urad and 100,000 tonnes of tur to India annually for three years. He stated that the MoU has been “very successful”. Myanmar is also encouraging bilateral trade settlement in local currencies with India. Myanmar has similar arrangements with Thailand and China. Notably, the Centre has allowed international trade settlements in Indian rupees for export promotion schemes under the Foreign Trade Policy.^[41]

Incidents of cross-border movements and transport of goods were also reported during the month. Security agencies in Manipur apprehended a Myanmar national for allegedly entering India illegally and procuring an Aadhaar card.^[42] The illicit trade of areca nut, also known as betel nut or ‘supari’, is also reported by the security forces, including the Assam Rifles. To curb the trade of areca nut, the Assam government recently imposed strict restrictions to ferry areca nut through its territory, preventing Tripura and Mizoram farmers from supplying their produce to other parts of India.

Further, unconfirmed sources have stated that the Myanmar military has been getting arms from India and transporting them from the border through Sagaing Region. According to the Kalay People’s Defence Force (PDF), a junta convoy carrying weapons from India travelled from India to Sagaing Region on 25 November.^[43] However, when the Indian embassy in Yangon was contacted, they rejected reports that the country was involved in arming the Myanmar military.^[44]

Conclusion

The UN chief Antonio Guterres urged the Myanmar military to immediately return to democracy and stop the “unending nightmare” engulfing the country. As per the various meetings and statements by countries and regional organisations, implementing ASEAN’s 5PCs is crucial to establishing stability and peace in Myanmar. The solution to the current impasse lies in initiating negotiating with all stakeholders rather than having any one fraction in power.

^[1]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-most-powerful-ethnic-group-rejects-juntas-2023-poll-plan.html
^[2]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/pro-myanmar-junta-militias-nationalist-monks-forcibly-recruiting-villagers-in-sagaing.html
^[3]https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-junta-facing-major-new-armed-threat-in-far-west/6832270.html
^[4]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/airstrike-11182022173805.html
^[5]https://www.ucanews.com/news/churches-on-hit-list-of-myanmar-junta-attacks/99486
^[6]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/food-and-medicine-shortages-as-myanmar-junta-blockades-rakhine-capital.html
^[7]https://www.mizzima.com/article/ceasefire-respite-war-weary-aa-and-myanmar-junta-how-long-will-it-last

Informal ceasefire with Myanmar military ‘not permanent’ solution, Arakan Army says

^[8]These students are Ko Khant Zin Win, Ko Thura Maung Maung, Ko Zaw Lin Naing, Ko Thiha Htet Zaw, Ko Hein Htet, Ko Thet Paing Oo and Ko Khant Linn Maung Maung https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-sentences-seven-students-to-death.html
^[9]Win Myint Hlain was elected to the local parliament of Magway region in 2015. He did not take part in the 2020 election but participated in protests against the military before being arrested in November 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/3/myanmar-court-sentences-ex-lawmaker-to-173-years-in-prison
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/only-402-of-myanmars-nearly-13000-political-prisoners-freed-in-junta-amnesty.html
^[12]https://www.mizzima.com/article/un-special-envoy-heyzer-calls-release-all-children-and-political-prisoners-myanmar
^[13]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501187801/asean-special-envoy-welcomes-mass-release-of-prisoners-in-myanmar/
^[14]https://www.mizzima.com/article/aapp-statement-myanmar-release-prisoners
^[15]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/2-more-former-nld-lawmakers-jailed-by-myanmar-junta.html
^[16]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-22/anz-pulling-out-of-myanmar-military-junta/101683180
https://www.mizzima.com/article/anz-will-become-first-international-bank-withdraw-myanmar
^[17]https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/11/25/myanmar039s-foreign-trade-up-2232-per-cent-in-nearly-eight-months
^[18]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmars-fdi-stands-14-billion-7-months-singapore-main-player
^[19]https://www.mizzima.com/article/yangon-and-rest-country-facing-more-power-cuts
^[20]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/03/myanmar-could-face-aid-catastrophe-experts-warn-after-junta-law-change
^[21]The IPI held six public hearings along with several private hearings and received dozens of written submissions. Malaysia’s Santiago and Indonesian House member Chriesty Barends travelled to the Thai-Myanmar border in August to gather information. The IPI investigation team included officials from African countries, the Americas and Europe. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/asean-myanmar-11022022162047.html
^[22]https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2022/11/myanmar-us-embassy-issues-security-alert-due-to-increase-in-violent-attacks-nov-29
^[23]https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-shadow-civilian-government-opens-office-in-washington-/6840870.html
^[24]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/9/us-eu-add-more-sanctions-as-myanmar-violence-deepens
The upcoming Singapore workshop is the fifth in a series of six planned activities. Two in-person workshops were held in Vietnam (September 2022) and the Philippines (July 2022). The Max Planck Foundation’s project started in October 2020, with the objective “to strengthen preventive diplomacy and regional cooperation in SEA to improve maritime peace and security”. https://www.mizzima.com/article/german-government-training-myanmar-junta-soldiers-possible-eu-sanctions-breach
^[25]https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130341378/new-zealand-to-reopen-diplomatic-post-in-juntaruled-myanmar
^[26]The organisers dropped her name after the UN complained to a co-organiser that the inclusion of Daw Zin Mar Aung and her deputy would amount to taking sides in Myanmar’s conflict. The event was hosted by the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI) and Global Citizen. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/myanmar-nug-foreign-ministers-unaired-global-town-hall-speech.html
^[27]https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/russia-myanmar-increase-bilateral-relations-response-economic-military-needs
^[28]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/russia-agrees-to-establish-yangon-flights-and-nuclear-energy-hub-in-myanmar.html
^[29]The agreement was signed in 2019 between Beibu Gulf Port and Yangon Port of Myanmar to establish a sister port relationship, providing favourable conditions for Myanmar to strengthen cooperation with ports in the pan-Beibu Gulf region https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-opens-new-shipping-route-to-myanmar-from-south-china-sea.html
^[30]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/beijing-boosts-ties-with-myanmar-militarys-proxy-party-amid-poll-plan.html
^[31]The Border Agreement-1980 between the countries aimed to enhance bilateral cooperation in combating illicit drugs and psychotropic substances and to prevent illegal border crossing. The agreement aimed to resume coordinated patrols between the two guarding forces to counter the potential threats posed by terrorist groups along the border. https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/5vl5kchs70
^[32]https://www.nationmultimedia.com/world/asean/40022036
^[33]https://www.mizzima.com/article/asean-urged-deal-decisively-myanmar-military-junta
^[34]https://www.mizzima.com/article/asean-actively-aiding-and-abetting-myanmar-juntas-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity
^[35]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501189425/siem-reap-admm-retreat-in-full-swing-without-myanmar/
^[36]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmar-junta-defense-minister-snubbed-by-asean.html
^[37]The first meeting was held in Thailand in 2018. The Golden Triangle region is an area where the borders of Laos, Thailand and Myanmar meet along the Mekong River. https://borneobulletin.com.bn/laos-thailand-myanmar-seek-ways-to-crack-down-on-drug-trafficking-2/
^[38]https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-myanmar-explore-trade-in-national-currencies-as-fs-meets-junta-chief/articleshow/95695613.cms
https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-s-foreign-secretary-visits-myanmar-discusses-border-management-122112100945_1.html
^[40]https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/page1/foreign-secy-raises-with-myanmar-trafficking-of-indians-by-job-gangs.html
^[41]https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/business/2022/11/20/cal17-myanmar-trade-minister.html
^[42]https://nenow.in/north-east-news/manipur/manipur-myanmar-national-held-illegally-entering-india-procuring-aadhaar-card.html
^[43]https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-junta-arms-convoy-indian-border-attacked
^[44]https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/anti-regime-groups-attack-army-convoy-near-indian-border

The month witnessed a rise in conflict between the military and the opposition forces, especially the air strikes as the rainy season was receding. The preparations for elections have started as the Union Election Commission called for bids for the supply of equipment. Internationally, the ASEAN special meeting was an event, to mark the developments prior to the 10-13 November meeting. During the month, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) put Myanmar on the ‘High-Risk Jurisdictions subject to a Call for Action’ category – commonly known as blacklist countries on 21 October.^[1] India pushed further for speedier completion of the Kaladan Multi-Modal project and is also witnessing increases in refugees from Myanmar as well as the problem of drug supply is on the rise.

Political and Domestic Crisis

In the latest push for the general election, Myanmar’s military-appointed Union Election Commission called for bids to supply polling equipment i.e. plastic ballot boxes, voting booths, pens, envelopes, ballot papers, ropes, ink and badges. Holding an election is part of the military’s five-point roadmap released after the 2021 coup. In the process, the regime plans to replace the current first-past-the-post electoral system with proportional representation. The change is seen as favouring the military and its allied political parties.^[2] It is also widely believed that Min Aung Hlaing wants to be “elected” president and will probably be nominated for the presidency by the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party. In early October, the USDP chose Khin Yi, one of Min Aung Hlaing’s right-hand men, as its new leader. The Myanmar military also plans to include a large number of retired officers, either as candidates or to help with campaigns.^[3]

On the one hand, detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s last five remaining cases of corruption were filed at Naypyidaw Prison Court. She has been charged with 19 cases since the military coup and has been sentenced to a total of 26 years in prison for 14 of them.^[4] On the other hand, the military released former planning and finance minister U Soe Win of the NLD government, singer Po Po and beauty blogger Win Min Than.^[5] Further, the country’s scenario is marred by repeated fighting in Kachin (except in Chipwi, Panwa and Phimaw townships), Chin, Rakhine, Karenni, Karen and Mon states. There is currently no fighting in southern and eastern Shan State. Furthermore, as the rainy season is ending, the military has started increasing airstrikes. The regime has used helicopters, jet fighters and surveillance drones to indiscriminately attack civilians. The aerial bombing campaign is concentrated in Sagaing and Magway regions and Kayah, Karen and Chin states.

According to data collected by the Irrawaddy, a total of 28 aerial attacks were launched in five regions from 01-28 October, leaving 111 dead and injuring at least 126 civilians. Sagaing Region was worst-hit, suffering 18 of the 28 junta airstrikes this month. On the other hand, there are also reports that the military is losing its strength due to daily clashes and is vulnerable to mine attacks by resistance forces. There are also reports that the military is undermanned and has been forced to form companies out of combat support units. The military is struggling to recruit both officer cadets and privates, forcing the junta to field firefighters, police and administrative employees as security personnel, as well as the pro-regime Pyu Saw Htee militias. ^[6] Therefore, the regime is increasingly relying on aerial attacks. As a result, the NUG Defence Minister U Yee Mon warned the People’s Defense Forces to remain on high alert.^[7]

Economic Crisis

In an attempt to gain foreign currency, military chief Min Aung Hlaing claimed that the domestic travel and inbound tour industries are re-starting in Myanmar. On the occasion to mark World Tourism Day, the military organised an event, which was attended by Russian and Japanese ambassadors and the heads of the diplomatic missions of a number of other countries, including India. Myanmar is also planning to launch direct flights to and from Moscow and arrange Russian-language courses. At the same time, regime-backed documentaries on Myanmar have been aired by a Thai military-owned broadcaster to attract travellers from the neighbouring country.

However, on the one hand, the regime is opening up its economy; on the other hand, the military is imposing pre-broadcast censorship on local and foreign television serials. The military-controlled Information Ministry stated that it will ban any content it deems politically or religiously dangerous, or that it believes undermines the culture and national solidarity or arouses sexual desire. In addition, the regime has banned the online news outlet The Irrawaddy and charged the outlet’s registered publisher for violating national security laws. Post the military coup, the Irrawaddy stopped operating from Myanmar and moved production and editorial staff outside the country. Therefore, the impact of the ban on The Irrawaddy was limited. However, before declaring the ban, the news outlets and their reporters faced immense harassment. ^[8] Furthermore, Myanmar’s military jailed Japanese filmmaker Toru Kubota for “seven years imprisonment for breaching an electronic communications law, and three years for encouraging dissent”. Kubota arrived in Myanmar in July 2022 and was filming a “documentary featuring a Myanmar person”.^[9]

Amid the military shutdowns, the NUG’s communications minister U Htin Lin Aung asked Elon Musk to offer satellite internet firm, Starlink, to Myanmar. They asked the provider to give uncensored internet across the country. According to Access Now, at least 54 of Myanmar’s 330 townships have internet blackouts. Justice for Myanmar also reported that the military aims to build a digital dictatorship and is taking control of all mobile networks, directly and through proxies.^[10]

Finally, as the country faces an upsurge in the prices of food and fuels, drug consumption has increased. In the months preceding the coup, Chinese triad groups operating in the Greater Mekong region began expansion in narcotics production. Recent entrants, Wan Kuok-kui’s 14K Triad and She Zhijiang’s Yatai International, have spread the reach of Chinese organised crime deeper into Myanmar’s borderlands. These chemicals “disappear into eastern Shan State under the control of the [United Wa State Army] and other insurgent groups,” Mr. Michael Brown, former US Drug Enforcement Administration attaché to the Myanmar government from 2017 to 2019, told Frontier. The UWSA is Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed group, which controls two autonomous enclaves on the Thai and Chinese borders, and has long been accused of involvement in the narcotics trade.^[11]

International Engagements

The United States added another round of sanctions on Myanmar’s military government, targeting three individuals and one entity. The reason for this round of sanctions was “their roles in the procurement of Russian-produced military arms from Belarus for the Burmese regime.”In his statement, Blinken also referenced the military government’s execution in July of four political prisoners and the 16 September helicopter attack on a school in the Sagaing Region that killed at least 11 children. ^[12] The EU had last imposed sanctions seven months ago, and Justice for Myanmar (JFM) called upon the EU to take concrete steps and impose sanctions on 31 companies, that have procured weapons for the regime since the 2021 coup. Currently, only the Htoo Group of Companies is facing EU sanctions. All of the businesses have been sanctioned by the US and UK, and some face sanctions from Canada. ^[13]

On 27 October, a Special meeting of ASEAN was held in Jakarta, because Indonesia will take on the chairmanship of ASEAN in November 2022. The meeting was held ahead of the ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Cambodia from 10-13 November. There have been increasing calls for Jakarta to take decisive steps to address the Myanmar political crisis. On 26 October, Cambodia issued a statement about the airstrike in Kachin State and other airstrikes in Karen State. However, the statement fails to identify the military directly but instead notes that “all parties concerned, in particular, one with significant power on the ground” must commit to an “immediate cessation of violence.” During the month, a military airstrike unlawfully killed at least 60 people at a music concert in Kachin State. From the meeting, Malaysian foreign minister Saifuddin Abdullah, one of the strongest advocates on pressing ASEAN to take firmer measures on Myanmar was absent from the meeting as Malaysia is due for a general election in November.^[14]

However, Myanmar was not invited following its failure to honour the peace plan. The military’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that as the meeting was held without Myanmar, it would not be bound by its outcomes. The regime also said renewed pressure from ASEAN to implement a peace plan would “create more negative implications.” While a renewed push to bring about reforms within ASEAN is being pursued, Human Rights Watch expressed “huge disappointment”, stating that ASEAN had remained committed to the stalled consensus. ^[15] Further, NGO Fortify Rights, noted that the ASEAN should scrap the “five-point consensus” on Myanmar and enact emergency measures such as forming an agreement on protecting Myanmar refugees, authorising cross-border humanitarian aid, and coordinating with other UN member states to deprive the Myanmar military of weapons, aviation fuel, revenue, and political recognition.^[16]

As the conflict continues in Myanmar, an estimated 70,000 have fled to neighbouring countries and more than one million have been internally displaced, according to the High Commissioner’s Office, OHCHR. Yet, regional actors are forcing Myanmar refugees and other nationals back. For instance, Malaysian authorities accelerated deportations to Myanmar, returning over 2,000 people since April. Thai authorities have similarly pushed asylum seekers back without verifying their protection needs.^[17] Following Malaysia’s latest round of deportations on 06 October, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk called for a moratorium on the forced returns of refugees and migrants to Myanmar. In addition, UN Special Envoy Noeleen Heyzer also said she would continue to urge the ASEAN to develop a regional protection framework for refugees and forcefully displaced persons. ^[18]

As international organisations get criticised for their limited actions and normalising relations with Myanmar’s military regime, various agencies have made an effort to justify their actions. Using social media, they deployed infographics and other tools to demonstrate how international aid organisations are working in the country.On 03 October, for instance, the Myanmar Information Management Unit (MIMU), which operates under the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), published a map that shows areas covered by “projects under implementation” by international nongovernmental organisations (INGOs) and the Red Cross. Another graphic tweeted by OCHA Myanmar on 06 October, claims that its “partners reached 3.1 million people with assistance at least once in the first half of 2022”. However, a closer look reveals that these figures do not provide an accurate picture of the actual situation on the ground. For instance, the disclaimer from MIMU: “This map shows the presence of organisations and does not indicate the volume of assistance, the number of beneficiaries, or the extent to which needs are met or unmet.” In short, these facts and figures are highly misleading.^[19]

Following weeks of border tension caused by Myanmar military operations across the border regions, on 26 October, a three-member delegation of the Myanmar military met Bangladesh Army in Dhaka. The two sides discussed working on regional peace and security, the exchange of training and relevant information and the quick repatriation of the Rohingya. The Myanmar delegation led by Lt Gen Phone Myat, Command Bureau of Special Operation, also made a courtesy call to Bangladesh Army Chief Gen SM Shafiuddin Ahmed. The Myanmar delegation reiterated that they are interested in enhancing friendship and communication with Bangladesh and solving bilateral problems. ^[20] In another development on Rohingya, Tom Andrews, the UN Human Rights expert on Myanmar, said that the extremist Rohingya organisation Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) was involved in the massacre of Hindus in Myanmar and should be held accountable. An Amnesty International investigation confirmed that “up to 99 Hindu women, men, and children” had been massacred by ARSA fighters, who also abducted Hindu villagers in August 2017 in Rakhine State.^[21]

Finally, another major giant sold its operations to a locally owned company. Switzerland’s Trafigura’s Puma Energy, the main supplier of aviation fuel in Myanmar, announced that it had sold its operations in the country to a locally owned company. The company agreed to sell its stake in Puma Energy Asia Sun (PEAS) and its minority share in National Energy Puma Aviation Services (NEPAS). NEPAS was a joint venture between Puma Energy and the state-owned Myanmar Petrochemical Enterprise under the military’s Ministry of Energy. Puma had initially suspended its operations following the military coup but later resumed distribution for civilian purposes.^[22]

India’s Engagements with Myanmar

During the month, the Indian government earmarked a corpus of Rs 17.8 billion to complete the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project in Myanmar. The remaining part is a two-lane highway measuring 109 km from Paletwa in Chin State to Zorinpui at the border of the two countries. The other parts of the project have been completed in Myanmar, including the construction of the Sittwe Port, a river terminal at Paletwa and the dredging of the Kaladan River. A new agreement was inked by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs with IRCON International Limited as the project implementing agency (PIA). According to the agreement, the highway will be constructed by local sub-contractors to be decided by IRCON and completed within 40 months. The project was commenced 12 years ago and the next deadline is 2023. But completing the highway in the existing circumstances could be challenging for the implementing agency.^[23]

In another push to India’s Act East Policy, Union Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia announced that flights would soon begin between Manipur’s capital Imphal and Mandalay in Myanmar under the UDAN scheme.^[24] In addition, a Myanmar delegation led by its Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation Minister Tin Htut Oo visited the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, to acquire seeds for a variety of beans and pulses, including green gram (mung beans). The delegation met with representatives of the India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) and the Overseas Agro Traders Association (OATA) to discuss the addition of green gram to Myanmar’s bean and pulse export list, and to invite more Indian investment in Myanmar. They also met with other private companies to buy seeds for cotton and sunflower.^[25]

At present, more than 30,300 Myanmar nationals have taken shelter in different parts of Mizoram since the coup. To accommodate the people, the Young Mizo Association (YMA) urged the Mizoram government to establish relief camps in a “compact” area. According to the Home Department, as of 22 October 2022, 30,385 Myanmar nationals, including 10,013 females and 11,650 children, have taken shelter across all 11 districts of Mizoram. Of them, 13,210 people have been lodged in 160 relief camps, while 17,157 people live outside the relief camps.^[26] During the month, India also successfully rescued 45 of its nationals trapped in fake job rackets in Myanmar. Out of them, 13 Indian citizens reached Tamil Nadu.^[27]

The month witnessed the continuation of the seizure of drugs smuggled from Myanmar. The Assam Rifles troopers seized 92,550 highly addictive Methamphetamine tablets worth around Rs 31 crores and arrested one person in this connection in Mizoram.^[28] Further, sources in Assam Rifles said more than 20 Myanmar nationals had been arrested in the past few months in Mizoram. The security agencies in the region have been recently claiming that rebel groups of Myanmar are using Mizoram to arrange and transport arms and equipment to aid their fight against the military.^[29]

Conclusion

Since the coup, the UN reports that more than one million were displaced, and 28,000 civilian properties were razed. According to data collected by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) as of 4 October 2022, there are 12,563 political prisoners are being held by the Military Council in Myanmar.^[30] On 30 October, global protests against the Myanmar military were recorded. In the US there was a demonstration in support of those fighting the military in Myanmar. There was also an anti-Myanmar military demonstration led by the Buddhist monk, Daegu Sayadaw, in South Korea.^[31] Even organisations such as Progressive Voice, Kachin Women’s Association Thailand and Women’s League of Burma raised concerns and called upon UNSC to stop evading its responsibility in Myanmar.^[32] Further, Fortify Rights believes that constructive engagement with the Myanmar military is impossible at this stage, and ASEAN must isolate the military and engage the NUG, Myanmar civil society, and ethnic armed organisations. However, to conclude, any constructive resolution to the current crisis must involve all stakeholders, the military, NUG and the EAOs.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/fatf-called-for-enhanced-due-diligence-on-myanmar-following-blacklist-rbi-122102701123_1.html
^[2]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-invites-bids-for-election-equipment.html
^[3]https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Myanmar-s-Gen.-Min-Aung-Hlaing-set-sights-on-presidency-sources
^[4]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/corruption-suu-kyi-10182022060206.html
^[5]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-frees-nld-finance-minister-and-two-political-prisoners.html
^[6]https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/myanmar-military-unable-to-fight-without-air-and-artillery-support.html
^[7]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/losing-the-ground-battle-myanmar-junta-takes-to-the-skies.html
^[8]On 29 September, the news agency’s former director, Thaung Win, was arrested and charged with violating the Publishing and Distribution Act. Further, local reporters from two media outlets, BBC Burmese and The Irrawaddy online news journal, went into hiding. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/irrawaddy-10312022181138.html
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/journalists-in-hiding-10172022174501.html
^[9]Kubota is the fifth foreign journalist to be detained in Myanmar, after US citizens Nathan Maung and Danny Fenster, Robert Bociaga of Poland and Yuki Kitazumi of Japan — all of whom were later freed and deported. https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20221006-myanmar-jails-japanese-filmmaker-for-10-years-diplomatic-source
^[10]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/elon-musk-asked-to-provide-satellite-internet-for-myanmar-fight-against-junta.html
^[11https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/they-use-it-to-find-some-relief-drug-use-on-the-rise/
^[12]The sanctions target the Myanmar businessman Aung Moe Myint, the son of a military officer whom the US Treasury Department claims “has facilitated various arms deals and weapons purchases on behalf of Burma’s military.” The Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has also targeted Aung Moe Mying’s company, Dynasty International Company Limited, and two of its directors: Hlaing Moe Myint, his twin brother, and Myo Thitsar. https://thediplomat.com/2022/10/us-announces-sanctions-on-myanmar-military-linked-arms-broker/
^[13]Few of the groups are Dynasty Group and its subsidiaries founded by Aung Moe Myint, KT Group, Ky-Tha Group and its subsidiaries owned by Jonathan Kyaw Thaung, Mega Hill General Trading, Miya Win International Myanmar Chemical and Machinery (MCM) run by Aung Hlaing Oo, International Gateways Group, Star Sapphire Group of Dr. Tun Min Latt, Sky Aviator and Synpex Shwe. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/asia/thai-court-rules-suspended-pm-prayut-can-resume-office.html
^[14]https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3197734/will-asean-norms-absence-malaysias-top-diplomat-doom-myanmar-peace-plan
^[15]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/myanmar-regime-rebuffs-asean-pressure-to-implement-peace-plan.html
^[16]https://www.mizzima.com/article/fortify-rights-asean-five-point-consensus-myanmar-should-be-scrapped
^[17]https://asianews.network/indonesia-told-to-prioritise-myanmar-indo-pacific-analysts/
^[18]https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129907
^[19]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/un-agencies-myanmar-pr-campaign-raises-more-questions-than-it-answers
^[20]https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/armed-forces/news/myanmar-army-delegation-pays-courtesy-call-bangladesh-army-chief-3154231
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-generals-welcomed-by-bangladesh-military-chiefs.html
^[21]https://thecommunemag.com/un-special-rapporteur-says-rohingya-extremists-should-be-held-accountable-for-massacre-of-hindus-in-myanmar/
^[22]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-main-supplier-of-aviation-fuel-withdraws-from-country.html
^[23]Early in 2022, the Indian government terminated the contract with a joint venture of Engineers Projects India Limited (EPIL) and C & C Construction Co. Ltd, which was tasked to construct the highway in Myanmar. In 2019, 10 people, including four Indians and a Myanmar lawmaker, were abducted by the Arakan Army from two boats between Paletwa and Kyauktaw. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/challenges-await-new-contractor-as-india-rejigs-plan-for-completion-of-kaladan-project-in-myanmar.html
^[24]https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/tripura-manipur-to-get-international-flights-to-bangladesh-myanmar-under-udan-scheme-1157910.html
^[25]https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/junta-watch/junta-watch-coup-leader-woos-tourists-tv-censorship-revived-and-more.html
^[26]https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/mizoram/yma-mizoram-govt-compact-camps-myanmar-nationals-8236400/
^[27]https://newsonair.com/2022/10/06/india-rescues-45-nationals-trapped-in-fake-job-rackets-in-myanmar/
^[28]https://hubnetwork.in/smuggled-drugs-from-myanmar-worth-rs-31-cr-seized-in-mizoram-1-held/
^[29]https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/myanmar-rebels-moving-arms-via-mizoram-to-fight-junta-say-security-forces-in-northeast-1158287.html
^[30]https://mizzima.com/article/myanmar-army-brutally-arrest-civilians-mandalay
^[31]https://www.mizzima.com/article/global-protests-against-myanmar-junta
^[32]https://www.mizzima.com/article/ngos-call-un-security-council-stop-evading-its-responsibility-myanmar

In a dismal turn of events, Myanmar’s military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing extended the state of emergency by another six months. The violence and conflicts continue in the country, especially in the central and western regions. The month also marked the 55th anniversary of ASEAN nations and the nations conducted several meetings from 31 July to 06 August. However, there was no representation from the side of Myanmar. During the month, the Russian Foreign Minister also visited the country to strengthen ties between the two countries. Several international organisations published reports on the deteriorating conditions in the country with increasing violence, arrests and detentions and conditions of journalists and prisoners. The following article highlights the major events during the month of August 2022.

Political and Domestic Situation

During the month, Myanmar’s military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing extended the state of emergency by another six months and stated that elections could only take place when there was “stable and peaceful”. He had previously stated that the state of emergency would be lifted by August 2023 and thereby the elections would be held. He also stated that there is the possibility of introducing “reform” to the electoral system, including combining the first-past-the-post system with proportional representation.^[1] Further, since the takeover in February 2021, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly insisted that his action last year was not a coup, but the takeover was in line with the law. However, during a press conference, the military spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun departed from that line and stated that the National League for Democracy (NDL) had forced the military into staging a coup.

On 11 August, the regime introduced further restrictions on political parties by barring them from speaking with international organisations or foreigners without permission from the electoral body. Earlier, it required foreign organisations to report to the regime’s foreign ministry through their embassies if they are to meet a political party in Myanmar. The UEC had accused the foreign embassies, international NGOs and domestic organisations of intervening in the 2020 general election. If the political parties fail to follow the instruction, the parties may face dissolution under Articles 407(c) and 408 of the 2008 Constitution, and Article 6(f) of the Political Parties Registration Law.^[2]

As the Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), Senior General Min Aung Hlaing conducted Second Peace Talks in Naypyidaw. The peace delegation was led by Chairman of Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) Khun Thurein, Chairman of Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) Kyar Solomon and Vice-Chairperson of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) Saw Mra Razar Lin. The SAC Chairman briefed the participants on the regime’s efforts to exercise the multiparty democracy system, building the Union based on democracy and federalism, and the need for more ethnic representatives to join the political platform. The Senior General also discussed efforts in fulfilling the development of the ethnic regions, the development of the Union State and most importantly, the allotment of Ks 330 billion from the State economic enhancement fund for the development of the ethnic regions.^[3]

The Myanmar military has filed an incitement lawsuit against eight residents in Arakan State’s Mrauk-U Township under Section 505(a) of the Penal Code at the Mrauk-U District Court; according to family members of the accused. The Arakan Army has detained multiple junta soldiers, police and security personnel in Arakan State over recent weeks. The Myanmar military has also arrested some residents of Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun and Sittwe on suspicion of having ties to the Arakan Army, charging some detainees with various counts.^[4]

Myanmar junta naval fleet attacked by PDFs in Katha, Sagaing

On the other hand, the violence in the country is rising from both sides. For instance, on 18 August that a Myanmar army fleet sailing upstream from Sagaing Region to Kachin State was attacked by missiles, according to Katha PDF. The attack was led by the All Burmese Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) and was carried out by local coalition forces of the Katha Township PDF and other local defence forces.^[5] While, the Myanmar military burned down 28,434 houses in 645 locations since last year’s coup, with Sagaing Region suffering the heaviest damage, according to the ‘Data For Myanmar’. They have also committed arson attacks in 11 states and regions, with Sagaing and Magwe regions and Chin State bearing the heaviest brunt against civilians. The research is based on reports from the media, rights groups and refugee organisations. However, there are chances that the actual number of houses burned down may be higher than the reported figures.^[6]

There are also reports that the military has been restricting the transport of humanitarian assistance. The internally displaced people (IDPs) are receiving much fewer relief supplies from donors, with food prices soaring and unemployment also rising. For instance, since three months the regime’s Arakan State Disaster Management Department has not supplied rice to a few IDP camps. On 20 August, the police stopped the Sittwe-based Metta Yaungchi philanthropic foundation from collecting donations to provide emergency supplies to people displaced.^[7]

The military is also expanding the use of facial recognition technology to increase its public surveillance capabilities. The cameras are sourced from Chinese tech conglomerates – Huawei, Dahua and Hikvision. The cameras are equipped with artificial intelligence technology that scans faces and vehicle license plates and alerts the authorities regarding those on wanted lists. The expansion of surveillance has raised fresh concerns about the safety of activists and resistance groups in Myanmar. In March 2022, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report warning serious threat to human rights with regard to Myanmar’s use of Chinese-made facial recognition systems. Earlier, in 2020, Myanmar launched a security initiative, a “safe city” in Naypyidaw, even before the military took power in a coup.^[8]

The military also gave orders to form “public security forces” on 10 August, during the meeting between Min Aung Hlaing, Vice Chair Soe Win and several chief ministers. Currently, the orders are to form such units in the Rakhine State. Following this, there were records of meetings conducted by local administrators issuing directives to every village or ward to form a seven-member security team. Since March, the military has been forming public security forces across the country.^[9] Whereas, the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) offered cash rewards to soldiers who would defect with anti-aircraft weapons. The price of a Chinese-manufactured FN-6 portable air defence system missile was estimated at USD 75,000-90,000 on the international weapons market in 2019. Earlier, the NUG also offered huge monetary incentives to regime soldiers who desert the military in order to encourage more defections.^[10]

Economic Situation

On 27 August, the value of the Myanmar Kyat (MMK) to the US Dollar (USD) hit a record low at 3,400 MMK/USD1. The change in the monetary regulation, the printing of money in Myanmar and the dwindling supply of foreign currency cannot keep up with the demand. On 05 August, the military changed the kyat to the dollar exchange rate from 1,850 to 2,100 and instructed traders to change 65 per cent of their export earnings into kyats. Further, on 26 August, the US Federal Reserve stated that it will raise the interest rates, which could mean that the exchange rates could go as high as 5,000 MMK. On 27 August, the major gold market players were summoned to meet with authorities tasked with monitoring gold and currency prices.^[11]

Even the merchants who trade goods across the border with China stated their miseries as they are no longer able to stay in business due to the depreciating value of kyats. The traders reported that the yuan was valued at around 420 kyats. The declining value of the kyat is making Chinese goods too expensive to acquire, and many traders say they are now facing losses. Khun Thein Maung, the Shan State economic minister, told RFA that he is having talks with Chinese and Myanmar district-level officials regarding the exchange rate at the border and other trade issues.

On 17 August, during a press conference, the military spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun stated that the Central Bank’s financial policies aim to address the issue of high commodity prices and economic development. He also added that traders failed to keep up with the military council’s changing systems and its monetary policy to help economic growth.^[12] The price of basic commodities has increased, such as the price of rice went to 3,900 kyats per viss, almost a rise of 44% from before the takeover. The loss of currency value has also pushed the prices for imports. For instance, the price of Palm oil has jumped to 9,500 kyats per viss (equivalent to 1.6 Kg) at the wholesale level, more than triple what it was before the takeover. Further, from January 2021 to early August 2022, cooking oil prices rose 3.2 times and prices for household goods such as mosquito coils and candles jumped 2.4 times and toiletries 2.2 times. ^[13]

Amid serious fuel shortages, the military regime formed a committee to import fuel from Russia. The committee will be led by former Lieutenant General Nyo Saw, chairman of the military-owned conglomerate Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC), and will look into the purchase, storage and distribution of Russian fuel to the domestic market.

The regime also plans to ban Facebook and replace it with a homegrown social media platform. Since 2018, Facebook has barred Min Aung Hlaing and also took down the official page of the Myanmar military. Following the coup, the accounts of senior military leaders have also been taken down. Military-owned businesses were also barred from advertising on Facebook. As a response, the Myanmar military shut off the internet and cut access to major social media sites including Facebook. It also amended the Cyber-security Law to include a punishment of three years in prison for using a virtual private network (VPN) to access the internet. Moreover, the regime checks phones for VPNs or any content deemed to be anti-military. ^[14]

International Relations

On 17-18 August, Ms Noeleen Heyzer, Special Envoy of the United Nations on Myanmar visited the country and met Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The visit aimed to make a request to the leaders to halt the aerial bombing and to stop burning the villages and houses of the people. However, Min Hlaing dismissed the allegations and clarified that the military targeted the location of the insurgents only, who attack security forces and countered them.^[15]

However, Myanmar’s shadow NUG and more than 850 civil society groups called on the United Nations to remove its appointed envoy to the country after her visit last week. The opponents warned that it risked giving legitimacy to the regime. Soon after the visit, the military resumed setting fire to homes and conducting airstrikes and shelling attacks on civilian targets. The groups also urged the UN to transfer the Myanmar case from the Security Council to the International Criminal Court and called for the formation of a special tribunal to carry out an investigation of the situation in the country.^[16]

The month also witnessed the conduct of ASEAN’s 55th Foreign Minister Meeting in Phnom Penh from 31 July to 06 August. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen raised concerns about the worsening situation in Myanmar with the military failing to adhere to the Five Point Consensus and the 25 July execution of four democracy activists. Nevertheless, Cambodia, as the chair of ASEAN, assured its continuous willingness to continue to work and find a solution acceptable to all parties.^[17] Furthermore, at the ASEAN’s 55th anniversary, Amnesty International urged the regional bloc to acknowledge the failure of its five-point plan and increasing human rights violations in Myanmar. Amnesty International’s Indonesia office was joined by a number of Indonesian civil society groups as the message was projected onto the organisation’s Jakarta HQ.^[18]

However, Myanmar’s foreign ministry issued a statement objecting to a reference in the ASEAN joint statement about the “lack of progress” in implementing the 5PC because “it neglects Myanmar’s efforts on its implementation.” They also justified the recent executions by stating that the four were “found guilty of masterminding, inciting, supporting, arming and committing terrorist activities which caused tremendous loss of innocent lives.”^[19]

On the sidelines of ASEAN-related foreign ministerial meetings, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi met the Cambodian Prime Minister and stated that Japan will support efforts by the ASEAN nations to improve the situation in Myanmar. In response, Hun Sen stated that Cambodia will work together with Japan to break the deadlock in Myanmar.^[20]

The month also saw the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Myanmar. Russia backs the Myanmar military’s efforts to ‘stabilise’ the crisis-ridden country, foreign minister Lavrov said during talks. The Russian foreign minister also met the foreign ministers of the ASEANin Cambodia.^[21] The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also attended the foreign ministers’ meeting of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh.^[22] Blinken urged the international community to reject the Myanmar military’s “sham elections” planned for 2023.^[23]

The Myanmar military was invited to the four-day Tri-Service Asian Defence and Security Exhibition, Conference and Networking Event (Defense & Security 2022) in Bangkok. The event is supported by Thailand’s Ministry of Defence. Countries such as Australia, the Czech Republic, Canada, Japan, France, Spain, Germany, Poland, and South Korea also participated. The US has a “partnership pavilion” at the event. Justice for Myanmar (JFM), reported that the event was organised by a joint venture of the London Stock Exchange-listed company Informa Plc and thereby demanded that Informa ban the Myanmar military from all of its events. Earlier in 2019, Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing personally attended the event.^[24]

During the month, the Myanmar military detained a Japanese video journalist Toru Kubota while covering a protest against military rule inYangon. He has been charged under section 505 (a) and under immigration law. Japan’s foreign ministry immediately released a statement appealing to the Myanmar authorities for the early release of the Japanese man. Last year as well a Japanese freelance journalist was freed in Myanmar after being arrested. The release was in recognition of the close relations between the two countries.^[25]

Amnesty International in its report ’15 Days Felt like 15 Years’ reported how the prison authorities and interrogation centres subjected detained individuals to torture and other cruel or degrading treatment. The organisation conducted 15 interviews in March 2022 with former detainees, lawyers of prisoners and experts, and also reviewed over 100 news reports and briefings. Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military has arrested more than 14,500 people and killed more than 2,000, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP). The report also suggested that the United Nations Security Council must increase the pressure on the Myanmar military and further refer its case to International Criminal Court.^[26]

During the month, Justice for Myanmar (JFM), called on Singapore to take action against 116 companies based in Singapore who have brokered the supply of weapons and other equipment worth many millions of US dollars to around 78 Myanmar-based companies. JFM called on Singapore to impose immediate sanctions to ban the use of its territory, including its banks and ports, for the supply of arms and equipment to the Myanmar military.^[27] Even the Western nations have imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s top generals and arms brokers; however, they have left the most lucrative of those companies, the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise. Projections by the World Bank and Norway’s international aid agency Norad before the coup, using Myanmar government data, pegged annual oil and gas revenues at some USD 1.5 billion. It is said those revenues accounted for about a tenth of the government’s total income. However, a few energy companies have started their exits, such as US energy giant Chevron and Total Energies of France. However, a lot is still out of the purview^[28]

On the one hand, the UK announced the imposition of more sanctions on Myanmar and also stated its willingness to join the case against Myanmar in the International Court of Justice. On the other hand, the Myanmar military detained the UK’s former ambassador to the country. Vicky Bowman, who runs the Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business (MCRB), and her artist husband Htein Lin were detained in Insein prison. Bowman was the British ambassador to Myanmar from 2002-2006. Her husband Htein Lin was also a veteran activist who spent almost six years in prison for opposing an earlier junta. She urged him to let her take the paintings for his own security.^[29]

In Australia, the struggle has begun to recognise Myanmar’s democratically elected national unity government (NUG). A shadow embassy has been set up in Yarralumla with the NUG’s representative, Dr Tun-Aung Shwe. The Labour MP Peter Khalil, Greens senator Jordon Steele-John and new independent MP Zoe Daniel joined officials at the opening. The Burmese diaspora in Australia donated huge amounts to the embassy, as well as rent and office furniture.^[30]

During the month, a bomb attack took place in Muse town, a Myanmar-China border town, along with a spate of shootings. However, no group has so far claimed the attacks. Muse is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which involves a proposed USD 8.9 billion high-speed rail link from China’s Yunnan province to Myanmar’s west coast. But the same region is also inflicted with problems of drugs and arms trade and EAOs.^[31] Furthermore, many Chinese-speaking people were being kidnapped from Thailand to Myanmar for scam activities. Many victims are kept in Myawaddy, Karen State, which is controlled by the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) affiliated with the Myanmar military. ^[1] In the turn of dismal situations, Myanmar’s ambassador to China, Ambassador U Myo Thant Pe, died on 07 August, according to diplomatic sources. He was appointed ambassador to China in late 2019 and continued to serve even after the coup.^[32]

Across Indian borders, the Assam Police arrested three persons and drugs worth of Rs 15 croreat Dillai in Karbi Anglong district. The official has reported that the drugs were smuggled from Myanmar, which shares an unfenced border with India’s northeastern states.^[33] Furthermore, the Mizoram Police detained two persons and rescued nine exotic wildlife animals which are suspected to have been smuggled from Myanmar. A case has been registered under the Wild Life Protection Act. A similar incident was also reported during the month when the city police arrested two persons on the charge of smuggling elephant tusks. A case was registered against them under various sections of the Wild Life (Protection) Act, 1972.^[34]

And finally, the Rohingya still await justice and protection since the attacks in northern Rakhine State on 25 August 2017. Human Rights Watch claimed that more than 730,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, while about 600,000 remain under the oppressive rule in Myanmar.^[35] Numerous organisations and countries issued statements in this regard. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the statements issued on the anniversary of the August 2017 incidents and stated that the contents and facts in their statements lack authenticity and are based on unverifiable sources. The Ministry also accused the statement of presenting just one-sided views and interfering in the internal affairs of Myanmar.^[36]

The Way Forward

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Michelle Bachelet, reported that Myanmar’s military continues to escalate operations against civilians, especially with the use of air power. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners has listed that around 2,138 civilians have been killed by the security forces and 14,917 arrested since the military takeover. Myanmar’s United Nations representative, Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, appointed during the previous NLD government National Unity Government (NUG), called on the international community for “concrete help” to fight the military. He gave certain solutions, such as suspension of all international representation of the military, cutting off the revenue streams for the military, its leader and affiliates, and stepping up efforts, especially by ASEAN. The UN High Commissioner also said that the UNSC will act swiftly with all possible measures by adhering to the principle of R2P. He also proposed immediate recognition of the NUG as a legitimate partner.^[37] To conclude, it is important to have all the stakeholders on board to bring out a resolution to the current crisis in Myanmar.

Endnotes :

^[1] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-extends-state-of-emergency.html
^[2] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-imposes-new-restrictions-on-political-parties.html
^[3] https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/sac-chairman-holds-second-peace-talks-with-ethnic-peace-delegation-in-npt
^[4]https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/myanmar-military-charges-eight-mrauk-u-men-incitement
^[4] https://www.mizzima.com/article/myanmar-junta-naval-fleet-attacked-pdfs-katha-sagaing
^[5] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/over-28000-homes-torched-by-myanmar-junta-forces-since-coup.html
^[6]https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/idps-arakan-state-call-regime-lift-restrictions-aid-delivery
^[7] https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/myanmar-s-junta-using-chinese-face-recognition-tech-to-eliminate-opponents-122080300096_1.html
^[8] https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/junta-orders-formation-of-militia-in-southern-rakhine-state
^[9]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nug-offers-rewards-for-myanmar-regime-defectors-with-anti-aircraft-weapons.html
^[10]https://www.thaipbsworld.com/myanmar-kyat-exchange-rate-reaches-record-low/
^[11]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/currency_woes-08232022174208.html
^[12]https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Myanmar-inflation-crushing-consumers-since-military-takeover
^[13]https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/junta-watch/junta-watch-plans-for-facebook-substitute-unveiled-military-admits-coup-and-more.html
^[14]https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/sac-chair-denies-military-burning-civilian-homes
^[15]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/heat-08232022184518.html
^[16]https://asianews.network/asean-five-point-consensus-achieves-little-in-myanmar-hun-sen/
^[17]https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/myanmar-asean-approach-requires-a-reboot-to-end-horrific-crimes-by-the-myanmar-military/
^[18]https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/asean-special-envoy-myanmar-warns-executions-88026237
^[19]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/08/06/national/politics-diplomacy/yoshimasa-hayashi-hun-sen-myanmar/
^[20]https://nenow.in/neighbour/myanmar/russian-foreign-minister-sergei-lavrov-myanmar-backs-junta.html
^[21] https://morungexpress.com/stopping-myanmar-violence-tops-meeting-of-asian-diplomats
^[22]https://www.mizzima.com/article/us-urges-rejection-myanmar-junta-sham-elections
^[23]https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/india-running-out-of-options-in-myanmar-as-a-civil-war-rages-and-china-backs-the-junta
^[24]Law 505 (a) criminalises encouraging dissent against the military and carries a maximum three-year jail term. Kubota is the fifth foreign journalist to be detained, after US citizens Nathan Maung and Danny Fenster, who worked for local publications, and freelancers Robert Bociaga of Poland and Yuki Kitazumi of Japan, all of whom were eventually expelled. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japanese-video-journalist-detained-myanmar-protest-march-87702713
^[25]https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/myanmar-detainees-tortured-to-crush-opposition-to-coup/
^[26]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/singapore-told-to-clampdown-on-companies-supplying-myanmar-military.html
^[27]https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-sanctions-hit-junta-still-netting-vast-oil-gas-profits/6697189.html
^[28]https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/myanmar-arrests-former-united-kingdom-ambassador-reports/cid/1882382
^[29]https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/07/myanmar-shadow-embassy-opens-in-canberra-to-champion-aung-san-suu-kyis-ousted-government
^[30]https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3187518/myanmar-china-border-town-hit-bomb-blast-and-shootings?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3187518
^[31]https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/as-myanmar-coup-intensifies-regional-human-trafficking-how-will-china-respond/
^[32]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/myanmar-ambassador-china-died-sunday-sources-2866271
^[33]https://www.mangalorean.com/drugs-smuggled-from-myanmar-seized-in-assam-3-held/
^[34]https://www.timesnownews.com/mirror-now/crime/mizoram-2-held-for-smuggling-exotic-animals-from-myanmar-article-93785667
^[35]https://www.hrw.org/video-photos/video/2022/08/23/myanmar-no-justice-no-freedom-rohingya-5-years
^[36]https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/myanmar-strongly-condemns-and-rejects-statements-issued-on-the-anniversary-of-august-2017
^[37] https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/myanmars-un-rep-calls-resistance-aid-fight-junta

On 25 July, the military carried out executions of four political prisoners, making it the country’s first use of capital punishment in decades. This led to widespread condemnation both domestically and internationally. The fighting continues within the country in major regions, and investigations by Amnesty International and BBC highlight the continuing crisis prevailing in the country. Internationally, the ASEAN Special Envoy, Prak Sokhonn’s visit marked significant development along with the visit of Chinese Ambassador Wang Yi, for the first time since the coup. Relations with India faced a new challenge with the killing of two of Indian origin people in Myanmar’s Tamu region.

Domestic and Political Situation

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) said at the Union Government Meeting that political situations have arisen due to improper use of political outlets. He stated the five-point roadmap and nine objectives to implement a multiparty democratic system and to build a Union based on democracy and federalism.^[1]

In addition, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) the proxy party of Myanmar’s military convened its annual central committee meeting in Naypyitaw. There was heightened security as there have been attacks on the party leaders. According to a May 24 article by a pro-junta media outlet, more than 1,600 individuals affiliated with the USDP, including party members and supporters have been killed by anti-junta guerrilla groups since last year.^[2]

The month witnessed the execution of the National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmaker Ko Phyo Zeya Thaw, pro-democracy veteran Kyaw Min Yu, widely known as ‘Ko Jimmy’, Ko Hla Myo Aung and Ko Aung Thura Zaw, which led to widespread condemnation.^[3] As a reaction, the opposing forces vowed to eradicate the military and bring justice for the execution of four activists. The Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, Chin National Front and All Burma Students’ Democratic Front released a statement with the National Unity Government (NUG).

They condemned the executions as acts of terrorism and vowed to fight the fascist dictatorship by all means in the people’s revolution. The Kachin Political Interim Coordination Team also condemned the executions. However, the United Wa State Party, the New Mon State Party, the Restoration Council of Shan State and the Shan State Progressive Party remained silent. Several people’s defence forces conducted revenge attacks on regime forces and informants, which killed about 20 junta personnel.^[4]

The military also increased its attacks, especially via airstrikes. For instance, the military carried out airstrikes on an AA outpost in the territory of the Karen National Liberation Army’s Brigade 5 killing six members of the Arakan Army. In reaction, the AA has vowed retaliation for the attack.^[5] In a show of its valour and defence capabilities, the Myanmar Navy conducted a naval exercise, Sea Shield -2022, on 06 July, in the seas off Rakhine State. The training included the participation of naval ships, including two submarines and helicopters.^[6]

In addition, the month marked an increase in arrests and detentions by the Myanmar military under The Myanmar Police Act. Especially in the Arakan State, the military arrested many residents.^[7] Furthermore, the military also transferred a number of political prisoners to different sites for undefined reasons. More than 30 other political prisoners in the Mon State detention centre were relocated to Thayawady, where the living conditions are worse. Such a trend was also practiced by prison authorities before the coup.^[8]

The month also recorded an increase in landmines explosions. Within the two months, at least seven landmines exploded in six Rakhine townships and Paletwa township of Chin State.^[9] Amnesty International investigated the indiscriminate use of antipersonnel landmines in villages in Kayah (Karenni) State. From 25 June to 08 July, Amnesty International researchers interviewed 43 people in Kayah State as the state has been at the centre of fighting between the military and Karenni armed groups since May 2021. The Karenni Human Rights Group (KnHRG) also documented at least 20 civilians killed or seriously injured by landmines in Kayah State since June 2021.^[10]

As the military is losing its legitimacy, there has been a decrease in the number of people joining the military institutes. Therefore, the military has decreased its age limit to increase the number of recruiters. Previously, applicants to the military’s Defense Services Academy, Defense Services Technological Academy and Defense Services Medical Academy could not be older than 18. But the regime recently announced in newspapers that it had loosened the age limit to 18 years and six months.^[11]

On the other hand, the biggest challenge that anti-military armed groups face is the lack of funds and weaponries. The NUG’s acting President Duwa Lashi asked the international community to provide weaponry, technological assistance and financial aid to the revolution. Further, U Htin Linn Aung, the NUG’s Minister of Communications, Information and Technology during a press conference on 22 June stated that the resistance groups not allied with the NUG typically don’t receive any funds directly from the NUG to support their activities. Certain groups have distanced themselves from the National Unity Government. For instance, the Anti-Dictatorship People’s Revolutionary Army formed in April 2021 mostly operating in the Sagaing Region has distanced itself from the NUG. Another such group is the Bamar People’s Liberation Army.^[12]

Economic Situation

Fitch Solutions, in its latest Myanmar Outlook, projected a shrink of 5.5 per cent in the current financial year, which ends in September 2022. The negative growth projection is due to the ongoing post-coup conflict and compounded impact of high global commodity prices, and it forecasts no immediate end to the country’s economic travails. The group said that it predicted real GDP growth would return to positive growth of 2.5 per cent in FY2023, as global commodity prices and inflation begin to ease, “reducing some of the pressure on real household disposable income.” But given the low statistical base, it described this projected recovery as “meagre.” ^[13] Many real estate development projects in the country also stand incomplete because of the post-coup conflicts.^[14]

Myanmar’s central bank ordered companies with up to 35 per cent foreign ownership to convert foreign exchange into the local currency, extending a rule aimed at relieving pressure on the kyat to include more businesses.^[15] The new restrictions on US dollars have come as a blow to businesses already struggling in an economic recession. The new restrictions saw the bank revoking the exemption from mandatory currency conversion given to companies with a minimum of 10 per cent foreign ownership.

Further, according to Bloomberg, companies in Myanmar have at least USD 1.2 billion in outstanding dollar-denominated loans. Business owners said the CBM’s capricious directives are making it difficult for them to continue their business operations. The exchange rate was further hit by more than 2,400 kyats per dollar. Many foreign firms have stalled their operations in Myanmar since the coup amid international pressure. And it is predicted that many more firms will likely be forced to leave Myanmar because they are no longer commercially viable in the current business environment. ^[16]

International Responses

The military executions led to widespread international condemnation. A joint statement from the European Union, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Britain and the United States called the killings “reprehensible acts of violence that further exemplify the regime’s disregard for human rights and the rule of law”. The United Nations also condemned the executions, with human rights chief Michelle Bachelet calling them “cruel and regressive”.

The United States State Department spokesperson Ned Price urged China to do more to rein in Myanmar’s military after its execution of four people. US secretary of state Antony Blinken, who met activists from Myanmar in Bangkok in July, also raised voice saying that the killings would not hinder the country’s democracy movement. The remarks came after China, a longtime ally of Myanmar’s military, refused to comment on the executions.^[17] However, in response, China pushed back efforts to intervene in Myanmar, saying Beijing adheres to a “policy of non-interference.”^[18]

Earlier during the month, on 02 July, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar for the first time since the military seized power. He attended the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation group meeting with his counterparts from Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The grouping is a Chinese-led initiative that includes the countries of the Mekong Delta. The region is crucial as an increasing number of hydroelectric projects are altering the flow and raising concerns of ecological damage. China has built 10 dams along the upper stretch of the Mekong, the part it calls the Lancang. The meeting was held under the theme “Solidarity for Peace and Prosperity” in the central city of Bagan, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

Military government spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun announced that the attendance of the foreign ministers at the meeting was a recognition of Myanmar’s sovereignty and its government. However, the foreign minister of Myanmar’s NUG, protested against the Bagan meeting, saying any such efforts in partnership with Myanmar’s military violate the will of the people as well as is in direct opposition to a peace plan by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).^[19]

During the month, Senior-General Min Aung Liang met Lieutenant General Apichet Suesat of the Royal Thai Army in Myanmar where the two discussed the issues of border stability. The Thai delegation was in the country to attend the 34th meeting of the Thailand-Myanmar Regional Border Committee in the Shan State, and later he was invited to meet Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw. However, the subsequent day a MiG-29 from the Myanmar Air Force intruded into Thai airspace while attacking Karen EAOs on the border. In response, the Royal Thai Air Force responded by initiating two F-16 fighter jets to patrol the border district. Later, Myanmar’s Air Force Chief, General Htun Aung, apologised to his Thai counterpart.^[20]

Australia received criticism from human rights organisations, such as Justice for Myanmar. The organisation revealed Australia’s embassy expenditure of more than USD 750,000 at a Lotte hotel in Yangon which has links with the country’s military. The Lotte Hotel is built on land owned by Myanmar’s Defence Ministry Quartermaster-General Office, which has been sanctioned by the US, UK and Canada. Further, the activists say Australian taxpayer dollars should not be spent at the hotel, which is built on land owned and leased by the country’s military. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) released invoices under Freedom of Information disclosures to activist group Justice for Myanmar. Lotte investors pay USD 1.87 million annually in rent, which goes to the Ministry of Defence.^[21]

During the month, a BBC investigation was published, which recorded confessions of members of the armed forces. The investigation reveals narratives of defecting soldiers. It also recorded crimes against women. The BBC spoke to some of the women who were attacked, and they attest to the violence they suffered. The investigation also points out the new alliances formed since the military seized power. Members of minority ethnic groups, including in Shan and Rakhine states, ally with and train the PDF in its battle with the military. However, the military denied the BBC report and declared that they didn’t attack the civilian population, and rather fought the “terrorists”.^[22]

Fortify Rights and the Schell Center for International Human Rights at Yale Law School also published a detailed report on the first six months of military rule. The report argues that those acts amount to crimes against humanity. Meanwhile, the atrocities continue. More than 100 children have been killed by the military. And, more than 1.1 million people have been displaced in the country, according to the UN’s latest humanitarian assessment, including nearly 760,000 since February 2021.

ASEAN and Myanmar

The Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar, Prak Sokhonn, visited Myanmar from 30 June to 02 July. This was his second visit to the country, and he met SAC chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to discuss Myanmar’s progress in implementing the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus. Sokhonn also met with Uko Ko Hlaing, the SAC-appointed Minister for International Cooperation and chairman of the Myanmar Task Force on ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance. The Myanmar Task Force on ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance welcomed Cambodia’s willingness to dispatch vaccination teams to administer Covid-19 vaccines to its population. However, he was denied meeting with former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi due to unspecified “judicial procedures”.^[23]

Sokhonn also welcomed the State Administration Council (SAC) declaration of Myanmar’s Year for Peace in 2022. After this meeting, Sokhonn had another talk with the representatives of seven ethnic armed organisations, which have signed the NCA with the SAC. They exchanged views on the political situation in Myanmar. Sokhonn also met with the foreign diplomats from France, the US, the EU and Australia to exchange views on the progress of 5PC, including the provision of humanitarian assistance to the people of Myanmar.^[24] Furthermore, in Bagan, the Chinese foreign minister met Sokhonn and expressed his support to help encourage the process of democratisation in Myanmar.

However, ASEAN also took strong steps to ensure the military takes course to the five-point consensus. For the second time, the Myanmar military Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin was barred from attending ASEAN-related meetings in Cambodia because there has been little progress on a “Five-Point Consensus (5PC)”. Earlier this year, Wunna Maung Lwin was barred from attending the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat (AMM Retreat) held in February. Cambodia hosted the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM), ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference (PMC), 12th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (12th EAS FMM), 29th ASEAN Regional Forum (29th ARF) and related meetings from 31 July to 06 August in Phnom Penh.

Though the invitation was sent and they had asked the military to send a “non-political representative” instead. However, on the first day of the series of meetings, Skhonn called Sen Gen Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw, where the two sides exchanged views on situational updates and challenges in implementing some key documents.^[25] Moreover, the ASEAN leaders strongly reacted to the military executions. ASEAN chair Cambodia has called the timing of the Myanmar junta’s execution of four activists “highly reprehensible” and said it had presented a gross lack of will to support the bloc’s peace efforts in the country.^[26]

India-Myanmar Relations

In a shocking incident, two Indian citizens were shot dead in the Tamu area of Myanmar, bordering Manipur. They were identified as P Mohan and M Iyarnar. ^[27] According to reports, the members of the pro-military Pyu Saw Htee militia shot them. Due to the incident, protests arouse in India demanding the return of bodies. The protestors further attacked the border checkpoint. One of the mobs from Manipur entered Myanmar and torched a small army sentry post.

As a result, security was heightened, and the authorities in India’s Manipur State temporarily closed the Indo-Myanmar border. Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh demanded the return of the bodies on humanitarian grounds and stated that no innocent Indians should be killed in Myanmar.^[28] The Myanmar military has also tightened security checks on locals and travellers.

Furthermore, Assam Rifles apprehended two cadres of a Myanmar-based Maraland Defence Force (MDF) with ammunition in south Mizoram’s Siaha district near the Myanmar border. Earlier on 06 July, Assam Rifles in a joint operation with state police had apprehended a top leader of the outlawed National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) in Aizawl.^[29]

Economically, the Indian Government has announced an increase in import of Tur and Urad pulses from Myanmar, Malawi and Mozambique. In a bid to ease the supply side pressure amid rising inflation, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a notification stating that India will import 2,50,000 MT of Urad and 1,00,000 MT of Tur of Myanmar origin through private trade over the next five financial years (2021-22 to 2025-26).^[30]

Conclusion

According to data compiled by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, around 12,000 people have been imprisoned, and more than 1,200 had been convicted and sentenced. The four executions have created outrage in the country, and the resistance forces have vowed to overthrow the military. The military on the other hand aimed to increase its presence and control law and order situation via force. This has resulted in human rights violations, as reported by various organisations. It is important that the world countries stand in support of the people and address their concerns of the people with the involvement of all stakeholders.

Endnotes :

^[1]https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/political-situations-have-arisen-due-to-improper-use-of-political-outlets-sacs-chairman
^[2]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-militarys-proxy-party-convenes-central-assembly
^[3]https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/july/28/what-lies-ahead-of-the-military-executions-in-myanmar
^[4]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-anti-regime-resistance-vows-to-step-up-attacks-after-executions.html
^[5]https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/vox-pop-reactions-arakan-state-deadly-junta-air-raid-aa-camp-near-thai-myanmar-border
^[6]https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/07/06/myanmar-conducts-naval-exercise-off-rakhine-coast
^[7]bnionline.net/en/news/juntas-imprisonment-two-sittwe-men-under-controversial-law-draws-criticism
^[8]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-army-soldiers-defect-to-knu-to-side-with-anti-coup-protesters
^[9]https://www.narinjara.com/news/detail/62bf0bc621f2d423422dc77c
^[10]The organisation interviewed landmine survivors and other witnesses, as well as health professionals who treated landmine injuries and people who had discovered and deactivated landmines in villages. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/07/myanmar-militarys-use-of-banned-landmines-in-kayah-state-amounts-to-war-crimes/
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/junta-watch/junta-watch-military-bends-rules-to-fill-ranks-loyal-monk-promoted-and-more.html
^[12]https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-pdfs-marching-to-their-own-tune/
^[13]https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/military-ruled-myanmar-facing-second-year-of-negative-growth/
^[14]https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Myanmar-building-projects-worth-1.3bn-frozen-since-army-took-power
^[15]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/yellen-vows-tough-us-measures-against-countries-abusing-economic-order-2820026
^[16]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/regimes-foreign-currency-restrictions-push-myanmar-towards-bankruptcy.html
^[17]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/26/myanmar-executions-us-presses-china-to-rein-in-junta-saying-it-cannot-be-business-as-usual
^[18]https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-says-no-interference-in-myanmar/2646205
^[19]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/3/chinas-top-diplomat-arrives-in-myanmar-on-first-trip-since-coup
^[20]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-regime-sorry-for-junta-jet-intrusion-into-thai-airspace.html
^[21]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-21/australian-embassy-myanmar-foi-spending-hotel-linked-to-military/101247374
^[22]https://www.eurasiareview.com/27072022-myanmar-regimes-brutality-began-long-before-the-coup-analysis/
^[23]https://asianews.network/myanmars-sac-refuses-to-allow-sokhonn-to-meet-aung-san-suu-kyi/
^[24]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501108353/asean-chairs-special-envoy-welcomes-myanmars-year-for-peace-in-2022/
^[25]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501107914/barred-again-myanmar-junta-fm-not-allowed-to-attend-upcoming-asean-meetings/
^[26]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asean-chair-calls-timing-myanmar-executions-highly-reprehensible-2022-07-26/
^[27]https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/two-indians-shot-dead-in-myanmar-near-border-report-101657056012723.html
^[28]https://www.telegraphindia.com/north-east/protest-over-indian-youths-death-in-myanmar/cid/1873479

Manipur : Security Tightened In Moreh; After Mob Torches ‘Myanmar Army Sentry Post’ Over Killing Of 2 Tamils 

^[29]https://nenow.in/north-east-news/mizoram/mizoram-mdf-rebels-held-siaha-myanmar.html
^[30]https://www.zeebiz.com/india/news-india-signs-mous-with-myanmar-other-countries-to-increase-pulses-import-190121

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) released its latest report on the increasing humanitarian crisis in Myanmar due to the escalation of fighting.^[1] The report states that the number of displaced people has exceeded one million for the first time. The report further highlights the economic and social crisis, such as increasing prices of essential commodities, the coming of monsoon season, and the lack of funding for relief efforts.

Political and Domestic Crisis

Political analyst Ye Myo Hein published a report, “One year On: The Momentum of Myanmar’s Armed Rebellion”, which reported that clashes and fighting continue in 266 townships out of the 330 townships in Myanmar. However, the number and magnitude of clashes may vary from place to place. ^[2] The incidents of fighting have increased, especially in Sagaing, Chin and Rakhine states.^[3] Clashes are also reported in Shan State, and the military has also extended the deadline for the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) to withdraw from three camps in southern Shan State.^[4]

Following the clashes and in reaction to the detainment of military troops, the military detained several people in Chin State’s Paletwa Township for interrogation. The military has also restricted water transport between Paletwa and Kyauktaw in Rakhine State. It was also reported that a submarine and other navy vessels arrived at Danyawaddy naval base in Kyaukphyu Township. ^[5] There are also reports that over 100 soldiers have defected from the Myanmar military to the Arakan Army (AA) since last year’s coup. ^[6] Conversely, pro-military groups have also been carrying out bloody attacks, primarily targeting those opposed to last year’s coup.

On 11 June, the military asked resistance fighters to surrender and return to civilian lives, saying they would be “welcomed” to rejoin society. However, the PDFs and other resistance fighters have rejected the proposal to lay down arms and join them.^[7] Further, the acting president of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), Duwa Lashi La, called for an escalation in the fight against the military to wipe out the military dictatorship. He also called for people to prepare to put an end to the election planned by the junta for 2023.^[8]

During the month, the military announced that Aung San Suu Kyi had been transferred to Naypyidaw Prison. Myanmar’s National League for Democracy (NLD) condemned the decision citing poor conditions and lack of access to health care at the facility. She has been charged in 19 cases since her arrest and sentenced to 11 years in prison for six of them.^[9] Further, the military also announced that it would go ahead with the prosecution of the Australian economics professor Sean Turnell for breaching the Official Secrets Act. Before the coup, he worked as an economic policy advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi. On the anniversary of his arrest, the Australian government called for his immediate release.^[10]

Furthermore, the military announced that it would execute two opposition political activists, Ko Jimmy and Phyo Zayar Thaw, for treason and terrorism. Subsequently, the UN and many western nations decried the decision and urged the military to drop the charges.^[11] Even Cambodia’s Prime Minister urged the military to reconsider the death sentence.^[12] However, the military regime condemned the UN and various Western governments for their criticisms. It defended the sentences, saying that the pair “were proved to be masterminds of orchestrating full-scale terrorist attacks against innocent civilians to instill fear and disrupt peace and stability.”^[13]

Economic and Social Crisis

Despite the continuing humanitarian crisis, the military during the month awarded more than 1.32 billion kyats (over USD 700,000) to Myanmar athletes who won medals at the 31st Southeast Asian Games in Vietnam in May. The military chief also held a separate event for military personnel among the medalists to honour them. On the other hand, the NUG launched its digital currency, Digital Myanmar Kyat or DMMK, which will be available through its mobile payment system. The currency will have its value linked to the Kyat and can be used in the country and abroad through NUGPay. Currently, the NUGPay payment system is available in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. ^[14]

The teachers in Myanmar continue to serve the Civil Disobedience Movement. Despite the call to reopen the schools, the teachers refused to go back to the schools. Only 2,960 teachers have so far contacted the regime about returning. At the same time, the NUG is running virtual and physical classrooms with the help of striking teachers.^[15] The military also ordered the closure of rice warehouses and restricted sales of food in Palaw Township.^[16]

Further, on 19 June, Duwa Lashi La during the round table on “End Sexual Violence on the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict”, stated that they had evidence that the military was committing sexual violence against women and children. NUG has documented 49 women, 20 youth, two men and one LGBT person brutally tortured and gang-raped by regime soldiers. Also, evidence suggests that women, children and men are used as human shields during battles.^[17] In addition, Tom Andrews, UN special reporter on human rights in Myanmar, stated that the military attacks on children are “crimes against humanity and war crimes”. It said that since the coup, the military had killed at least 142 children, around 250,000 children displaced and over 1,400 detained without reason.^[18]

As a result of the crisis, the OCHA report states that around 40,200 people have fled to neighbouring countries, and more than 12,700 “civilian properties” are estimated to have been destroyed. However, the humanitarian aid reached only 2.6 million people in Myanmar or approximately 41 per cent of the 6.2 million people targeted. Also, concerns are raised as the Humanitarian Response Plan has received only 10 per cent of funding this year.

International Responses

On 21-22 June, Cambodia hosted the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting with the participation of Myanmar’s Minister of Defence delegation. Following the meeting, a joint declaration included a statement of support for the five-point consensus. Malaysia’s defence ministry called the meeting useful but said in a statement that the attendance of the military’s defence minister does not mean Malaysia recognises Myanmar’s ruling military council as the country’s valid government. However, many rights groups criticised the conduct of the meeting. ^[19] On 29 June, the ASEAN Special Envoy on Myanmar, Prak Sokhonn, started his second official visit to follow up on the country’s peace plan and humanitarian assistance. The visit aimed at meeting with all stakeholders; however, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that the envoy would not meet Suu Kyi or U Win Myint. ^[20]

During the month, Bangladesh and Myanmar held virtual discussions on issues related to the voluntary and sustainable repatriation of the Rohingya. This was the fifth meeting of the Joint Working Group (JWG), with Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Myanmar Chan Aye. As a result, both sides agreed to work on addressing verification-related problems and holding regular meetings of the JWG and technical working group for the early commencement of repatriation. ^[21]

Further, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) called on the Thailand government to provide rescued Rohingya asylum seekers with assistance and immediate access to procedures to determine their refugee status. On 4 June 2022, the Thai navy detained 59 Rohingya from Myanmar who was stranded on Koh Dong Island in southern Thailand. Thailand treats Rohingya arriving at the border as “illegal immigrants” and detains them.^[22]

India in Myanmar

During the month, a vacuum was created in the Taga areas of Sagaing as the military left the region, which it had captured after the 2019 Operation Sunrise with the Indian army. The operation led to the arrest of dozens of insurgent cadres, including seven top functionaries, thereby forcing the insurgents to leave the area. According to analysts, Taga is a crucial place for Indian-origin insurgent groups to get arms from China. Moreover, it is also essential for the Myanmar Army to control the Kachin Independent Organisation (KIO) and its armed wing, Kachin Independent Army (KIO). Pallav Bhattacharya, former Special Director General of the Special Branch of Assam Police, stated that withdrawing Myanmar military troops is conducive to militant activities in Northeast India.^[23]

Further, India did not invite the military’s foreign minister to the upcoming Special India-ASEAN foreign ministers meeting celebrating the 30th Anniversary of relationship. According to India’s The Economic Times, ASEAN has taken the position that Myanmar should be engaged at a nonpolitical level in multilateral forums.^[24] Since 2018, there has been a Free Movement Regime between India and Myanmar, which has led to sometimes illegal activities at the border. In Manipur’s Churachandpur district, eighty illegal immigrants from Myanmar were apprehended. ^[25]

Progress has also been made in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMMTT) project. The Indian government has recently appointed IRCON as implementing and executing agency for expediting the work. The agency can now hire local Burmese contractors to construct the pending stretch of 109 km road between Paletwa (Myanmar) and Zorinpui (Mizoram). This stretch of road is in Chin State, and the post-military coup faces challenges in terms of safety and security. ^[26]

Way Forward

Michelle Bachelet, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, during the 50th Session of the Human Rights Council, gave an update on Myanmar and stated that despite losing optimism, they still hope for a democratic transition.^[27] The people of Myanmar are suffering from devastating consequences and are trapped in a cycle of poverty and displacement, human rights violations and abuses. Since February 2021, around 1900 killings by the military have been reported. In addition, the economic crisis has led to the decline in the national currency and prices of essential goods have surged. The flow of information is also limited with numerous internet shutdowns, and there has been harassment and prosecution of journalists and individuals reporting on human rights. The solution to the current crisis lies in the involvement of all stakeholders for effective decision-making and peace in the country.

Endnotes :

^[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/un-report-over-1-million-displaced-in-myanmar-amid-violence/2022/06/02/30977470-e25f-11ec-ae64-6b23e5155b62_story.html
^[2] Ye Myo Hein, the executive director of the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies and a public policy fellow with the Woodrow Wilson International Center’s Asia Program, published a research report: “One Year On: The Momentum of Myanmar’s Armed Rebellion.” https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/military-is-weaker-since-coup-and-momentum-is-with-the-armed-resistance.html
^[3] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nearly-90-myanmar-junta-soldiers-killed-in-clashes-with-resistance-in-north.html
^[4] https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/burma-army-extends-deadline-sspp-southern-shan-state https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/local-leader-of-myanmar-militarys-proxy-party-shot-dead-in-southern-shan-state
^[5] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-detains-villagers-following-clash-with-arakan-army-in-chin-state.html
^[6] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/over-100-junta-soldiers-defect-to-arakan-army-in-western-myanmar.html
^[7] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-resistance-rejects-junta-calls-to-surrender.html
^[8] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nug-acting-president-calls-for-people-to-put-an-end-to-juntas-planned-election.html
^[9] https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/transfer-06282022191446.html
^[10] https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/myanmar-junta-to-move-forward-with-trial-of-australian-economist/
^[11] https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/myanmar-junta-to-carry-out-death-sentences-against-activist-nld-lawmaker/
^[12] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Cambodia-s-Hun-Sen-asks-Myanmar-to-call-off-political-executions
^[13] https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/myanmar-military-junta-says-criticisms-of-executions-irresponsible-and-reckless/
^[14] https://www.laprensalatina.com/parallel-government-in-myanmar-creates-own-digital-currency/
^[15] https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/junta-watch/junta-watch-defying-the-world-on-executions-splashing-cash-while-urging-frugality-and-more.html
^[16] https://www.mizzima.com/article/junta-restricts-food-sales-tanintharyis-palaw-township
^[17] https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nug-burma-army-using-rape-weapon-war
^[18] https://www.persecution.org/2022/06/19/myanmars-military-targeting-children/
^[19] https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501098895/cambodian-defence-minister-myanmar-defence-minister-holds-bilateral-talks/
https://apnews.com/article/asia-myanmar-global-trade-19a0dddfa8eae60443c9b5fd9914235e
^[20] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/asean-special-envoy-on-second-visit-to-myanmar-no-meeting-with-suu-kyi.html
^[21]https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/06/14/rohingyas-dhaka-asks-nay-pyi-taw-to-expedite-verification-for-early-repatriation
^[22] https://www.mizzima.com/article/hrw-calls-thailand-allow-rohingya-access-asylum
^[23] The Army carried out the operation against North-East insurgent groups. In Taga, Yung Aung-led National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-K), Paresh Baruah-led United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent (ULFA-I), B Swaraigra-led National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), Jeevan Singha Kuch-led Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), IK Sangbijit-led People’s Democratic Council for Karbi Longri (PDCK) and other Manipur-based insurgent groups operated their headquarters (HQs) with the help of Naga rebel group NSCN-K. https://www.news18.com/news/india/myanmar-army-abandons-taga-headquarters-of-northeast-insurgent-groups-after-three-years-5450287.html
^[24] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-not-invited-to-india-meeting-with-asean-foreign-ministers.html
^[25] https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/national/2022/06/28/cal28-mn-immigrants-myanmar.html
^[26] https://www.awamkasach.com/india-myanmar-kaladan-project-s-completion-hangs-in-limbo/
^[27] https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/06/50th-session-human-rights-council-oral-update-myanmar

The country is reeling under political and economic crisis. The military initiated peace talks during the month in its efforts to meet the Ethnic Armed Organisations, but most of the armed groups that have been active in the fight with the military since the coup have refused participation. The National Unity Government (NUG), on the other hand, marked the celebration of the first anniversary of the People Defence Forces (PDF) on 05 May; they also called out to the international community to support them with funds and arms. Internationally, the United States-ASEAN summit was a landmark event, and the Malaysian Foreign Minister called upon the Myanmar military leaders for taking sufficient steps to resolve the crisis.

Economic Conditions

Myanmar is facing fuel shortages partly because of the Central Bank of Myanmar’s change in regulations in April 2022 and partly because of the regime’s orders that the fuel will be sold at fixed rates. The Central Bank of Myanmar announced that foreign earnings must be deposited with licensed banks and exchanged for kyats within one working day at the official rate. The restricted access to dollars has blocked fuel imports.^[1]

The cash shortage is also starkly visible as the military regime has not been able to pay dividends from its businesses since the 2021 coup. The dividends are usually paid at the end of the financial year. It’s mandatory for all ranks to buy MEHL shares. For instance, a captain is required to invest 3 million kyats in MEHL and lower ranks 1.5 million kyats. In the past year, MEHL profits have tumbled amid boycotts of beer and cigarettes, the main income sources.^[2]

Myanmar’s military regime has cancelled tenders invited under the previous National League for Democracy (NLD) government for 26 solar power projects. Chinese companies and their consortia won the bids to build 28 out of the 29 plants, but the military cancelled the tenders due to repeatedly post poking of signing power purchase agreements. However, only three solar projects are being implemented, and Chinese firms have stalled on the other projects. Just before the blacklisting of firms, the electricity and energy Minister U Aung Than Oo was replaced with U Thaung Han, the former chairman of the Mandalay Electricity Supply Corporation, amid severe power outages in Myanmar.^[3] Further, on 11 May, the military charged Bo Bo Nge, former Central Bank’s deputy governor, with corruption offences. He was arrested on the day of the military coup.^[4] The military has also removed Lt General Than Hlaing as chief of the military’s police force and deputy minister of home affairs, with Major General Zin Min Htet, the military’s Joint Adjutant General, since 2019.

Domestic and Political Situation

During the month, Aung San Suu Kyi was tried in a new corruption case, accusing her of receiving money from Maung Weik in 2019 and 2020. She is charged under the country’s Anti-Corruption Act with up to 15 years in prison and a fine. She has already been sentenced to 11 years imprisonment under different cases of corruption, sedition and violation of coronavirus restrictions. In another case of corruption, she was charged with receiving USD 600,000 and seven gold bars from Phyo Min Thein, the former chief minister of Yangon.^[5]

During the month, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing held the first face-to-face peace talks since the military coup with Yawd Serk, chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS). Myanmar has 21 ethnic armed organisations, out of which ten have accepted the invitation to the peace talks. But there is scepticism that the talks will do much to advance peacemaking because none of the groups attending are currently in armed conflict with the government. The major ethnic minority groups, such as Kachin Independence Army, the Karenni National Progressive Party and the Chin National Front, currently in armed conflict with the military, have not attended the peace talks.

Regions such as Kachin, Chin, Sagaing and Karen continued to witness clashes. In the first half of the month, regular interceptions by the military were recorded in Chin State. Casualties were reported on both sides. The Chin Defence Forces, on the other hand, claimed success in several clashes with the military. In the Sagaing region, the regime launched air strikes as local resistance forces attacked an army camp in a pro-regime village in the township.^[6] The military has further cut mobile phone service to eight townships in the Sagaing region.^[7] The military has also increased security in Yangon as it remains a hotbed of anti-regime resistance. The military aims to wipe out the urban resistance groups.^[8]

Further, the Karen National Union (KNU) stated that troops engaged in more than 500 clashes with regime forces in May 2022. In the statement released by the Union, they claimed to have killed around 356 junta forces and 194 injured.^[9] During the month, however, the military reclaimed the Maw Khee base. Waw Lay and Maw Khee, in the KNLA’s Brigade 6 territory.^[10] The KNU, on the other hand, is consolidating its control of Kyaukkyi and Mone townships in the eastern Bago Region.^[11] In a march from Hpa-An Township in Kayin (Karen) State to Bilin Township in Mon State, the regime forces used more than 100 civilians as porters and human shields earlier this week.^[12]

Major-General Tun Myat Naing, chief of the Arakan Army (AA) based in Rakhine State, issued a public warning about the prospect of renewed fighting in Rakhine. The military has attempted to counteract the AA with the increasing presence of regime troops inspecting villages and tightening security checks. Further, on 31 May, a submarine arrived at Kyauk Phyu Township.^[13] The regime has also again started detaining and interrogating people it suspects of having ties to the AA, which was done before the 2020 ceasefire. The AA has also not responded to the regime’s proposal for peace talks. ^[14] The fight erupted between the military and AA near Abaung Thar village, Chin State.^[15] Further, Major Aye Tun, an AA leader, warned through his social media posts to boycott military council products and not buy homes from the Shwe Yati beach project in Gwa township of Rakhine State.^[16]

Overall, boths ides, the pro-military and anti-military, continued with targeted assassinations of the opposite sides. For instance, local military council members in the Mandalay Region were shot by unidentified gunmen. On the other hand, the pro-junta militia claimed responsibility for slaying opposition party members and threatened to kill journalists and their families. During the month, eight members of the NLD and their supporters were found brutally murdered. However, the military deputy minister of information, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun stated that the military has no ties to the Thway Thank, the pro-junta militia taking responsibility for the murder. He also accused seven media outlets of being “destructive elements” in Myanmar, including RFA, Khit Thit Media, The Irrawaddy, Mizzima, DVB and The Irrawaddy Times.^[17]

The NUG and PDFs

May 6 marked the PDF anniversary, a paramilitary group formed to protect Myanmar’s civilians against military forces. The NUG Ministry of Defense said the PDF has expanded to 257 units, with 80,000 and 100,000 PDF troops spread across 250 townships and maintains links with more than 400 local guerrilla groups. A statement claimed that around USD 30 million was spent on arms training and military equipment for the PDF since its formation.^[18] However, PDFs are facing cash and arms shortages. Four local PDFs based in Sagaing publicly reported that they were struggling with insufficient arms and other logistics issues. These groups have so far relied on donations from local people.^[19] Under such circumstances, the defence chief of NUG, Yee Mon, called for international help to arm its resistance forces. ^[20] On the other hand, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing urged the United Wa State Party (UWSP) not to supply arms to the PDFs. However, the UWSP liaison officer Nyi Rang denied discussing PDFs or Daw Aung San Suu Kyi at the meeting.^[21]

During the month, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the legislative body of NUG, enacted its People’s Police Force Law to regulate law enforcement in areas controlled by resistance forces. Under the law, the People’s Police Force will be established under the civilian Ministry of Home Affairs and Immigration to upgrade law enforcement from accepting complaints to prosecuting. The ministry has so far received more than 400 complaints against military atrocities against civilians. The CRPH said the law would take legal action against the military leaders who seized power illegally and expose the crimes committed by the regime against civilians.^[22]

The National Unity Government (NUG) also conducted an online meeting with AA to engage with armed groups. The shadow government’s Alliance Relations Committee, its foreign minister Daw Zin Mar Aung and prominent ’88 Generation leader U Min Ko Naing spoke to AA chief Major General Tun Myat Naing and his deputy Brigadier General Nyo Tun Aung. The two sides discussed the political landscape and current situation in Myanmar. However, the AA has avoided direct involvement in armed revolt against the military regime; it supports the PDFs by providing training and weapons.^[23]

International Responses

In yet another move to issue a statement at United Nations Security Council, China and Russia blocked the attempt to push the military leaders to take steps to resolve the crisis and express concern about the violence and humanitarian situation in the country. The proposed statement was drafted by the United Kingdom, which had expressed concern at the “limited progress” in implementing a five-point plan for ending the crisis.^[24]

On 05-06 May, the ASEAN leaders held a meeting in Cambodia to discuss plans to deliver aid to Myanmar. The regime was represented by its Minister for International Cooperation, Ko Ko Hlaing. However, the military blocked the UN Special Envoy for Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, from attending the meeting. Though no reason was stated, her exclusion is believed to come after her recent discussions with the parliamentary body of Myanmar’s NUG and its relief and resettlement minister, Dr Win Myat Aye. However, the NUG criticised ASEAN’s decision to provide humanitarian aid to the Myanmar people via the military regime as it flouts the fundamental humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence.^[25]

The United States (US) hosted the two-day US-ASEAN Special Summit. A host of issues were discussed, from COVID to the current situation in Myanmar. Out of the total ten, eight ASEAN leaders attended the summit; the Philippines declined to attend due to the presidential elections, and Myanmar’s military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, was barred from the summit. At the summit, Malaysia slammed the military for refusing to engage with the country’s shadow government, NUG. Instead, the US State Department officials met with the foreign minister of the National Unity Government, Myanmar’s shadow government of deposed leaders and other junta critics working to regain control of the country.

Earlier in the month, Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Abdullah proposed that ASEAN engage informally with the NUG to discuss humanitarian aid. Still, the regime rejected the remark as “irresponsible and reckless”. Thereby, the Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah called out Myanmar military officials in a series of tweets for failing to honour the Five Point consensus and refusal to allow the United Nations special envoy to attend an ASEAN meeting on humanitarian aid to Myanmar.^[26] He also became the first minister from the ASEAN to publicly meet a NUG minister.

Furthermore, the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen urged Myanmar’s military to allow the ASEAN special envoy to visit and meet deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Hun Sen requested “further cooperation in facilitating the second visit to Myanmar by the ASEAN Chair’s Special Envoy, possibly at the end of May”. He also urged the military chief to release political prisoners, reduce excessive force use and facilitate humanitarian assistance delivery. ^[27] However, during the month, Cambodia organised a three-day meeting of senior defence officials, including Myanmar military representatives. This contrasts with the earlier decisions to exclude military representatives from ASEAN meetings.^[28]

The advocacy groups Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Justice for Myanmar again called on the Government of Japan to cease training Myanmar military officers after it emerged that a Japanese-trained air force commander took part in bombing raids in the country. According to HRW, Japan accepted two cadets and two officers to participate in the training programme in 2021, after the coup. This was followed by a further two cadets and two officers in 2022. ^[29] In the month, Japanese energy conglomerate ENEOS Holdings said it would withdraw from the Yetagun gas project in Myanmar, which has been operational for two decades.^[30] Also, to not legitimise the military regime, the Australian government said it would replace its ambassador to Myanmar, Andrea Faulkner, with a lower-ranked representative. Several western countries have downgraded their diplomatic relations since last year’s coup.^[31]

Way Forward

The Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP Myanmar) reported that at least 5,646 civilian deaths have occurred since the coup till 10 May 2022.^[32] Given the humanitarian losses and the accompanying economic and political crisis, the military leaders must take steps to bring in all stakeholders and resolve the current situation. The country is sliding back into poverty, and there are cash and fuel shortages. Mainly Sagaing and Chin’s regions are suffering severe casualties in their fight against the military. Internationally, more efforts and concrete steps are required to address the crisis than mere statements.

Endnotes :

^[1] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-fuel-importers-blame-shortages-on-junta-dollar-controls.html
^[2] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/military-owned-corporation-fails-to-pay-dividends-to-myanmar-troops.html
^[3]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-cancels-chinese-backed-solar-power-projects.html
^[4]https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/governance/people/7947586/myanmar-junta-brings-charges-against-former-deputy-governor
^[5]https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/myanmars-suu-kyi-charged-bribery-trial-opens-84447854
^[6]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-calls-in-air-strikes-to-keep-village-from-falling-to-resistance.html
^[7]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/phone-05242022160146.html
^[8]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-tightens-security-in-commercial-capital-yangon.html
^[9]https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/resistance-forces-strike-myanmar-army-convoys-on-chin-state-roads
^[10]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-military-reclaims-control-of-maw-khee-base-seized-by-karen-forces
^[11]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ethnic-karen-fighters-take-control-of-lower-myanmar-townships.html
^[12]https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/knu-accuses-myanmar-military-of-abducting-civilians-for-use-as-as-human-shields
^[13]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/warships-06022022102800.html
^[14]https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/military-tensions-rise-in-western-myanmar-as-arakan-army-chief-warns-regime.html
^[15]https://www.narinjara.com/news/detail/62919b0721f2d423422dc735
^[16]https://www.narinjara.com/news/detail/628878df21f2d423422dc720
^[17]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/threats-05022022233600.html
^[18]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/anniversary-05112022202816.html
^[19]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/we-need-guns-myanmar-resistance-forces-tell-shadow-govt.html
^[20] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-resistance-urges-west-provide-arms-fight-against-junta-2022-05-17/
^[21] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/clashes-expected-in-chin-state-as-junta-deploys-more-troops-to-western-myanmar.html
^[22]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-civilian-government-passes-police-law-for-its-controlled-areas.html
^[23]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-civilian-government-holds-talks-with-arakan-army.html
^[24] https://www.dw.com/en/china-russia-reportedly-block-un-statement-on-myanmar-crisis/a-61961339
^[25]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/aseans-plan-to-deliver-aid-to-myanmar-via-junta-condemned.html
^[26] https://www.eurasiareview.com/13052022-myanmar-crisis-center-stage-at-us-asean-summit/
^[27]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/myanmar-talks-05022022220938.html
^28]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501077177/bucking-the-trend-asean-chair-cambodia-invites-myanmar-junta-reps-for-adsom/
^[29]https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/japan-trained-myanmar-air-force-officer-took-part-in-bombing-raids-activists/
^[30] https://dailytimes.com.pk/929547/japans-eneos-withdraws-from-myanmar-gas-project/
^[31]https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/australia-downgrades-diplomatic-ties-with-myanmar-junta.html
^[32]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/toll-05172022210115.html